Future spatial modeling of vegetation in the Central Atlantic Forest Corridor, Brazil

Tropical forests stand out among forest domains, due to their wide diversity of flora and fauna. However, these areas concentrate a large number of the forest fires that occur annually on the planet. In this context, the present study performs spatial modeling of the normalized multi-band drought index (NMDI) in the Central Atlantic Forest Corridor during past (2001-2020) and future (2021-2040) periods to identify the relationship between drought and forest fires. Fire foci data, soil moisture, and data from the MOD09A1 product were used to obtain the NMDI. Rainfall and mean air temperature data from the past and for different future scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) were also used. The autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was used for modeling the NMDI. The results found indicate a recurrence of fire in the CAFC during the period of 2001–2020. Future data indicate reductions in rainfall and an increase in temperature in the CAFC area. The NMDI data indicate that the central region of the corridor is the driest and, among the priority areas for conservation, the Ilha do Lameirão Municipal ecological station has the lowest index values. Future modeling indicates the drought intensifying in the coming years in the corridor area. The CAFC is an extremely important area for the maintenance of Atlantic Forest remnants; however, this area continues to suffer disturbances and without the adoption of public policies, these disturbances could compromise the conservation of natural resources.

Twenty-year impact of fire foci and its relationship with climate variables in Brazilian regions

In recent years, Brazil has become a major global contributor to the occurrence of national fires and greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the fire foci data of the past 20 years to determine their relationship with climatic variables in various Brazilian regions. The variables evaluated included fire foci, land surface temperature, rainfall, and standardized precipitation index, which were obtained via remote sensing from 2000 to 2019. The data were subjected to trend analyses (Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests) and a multivariate analysis of canonical variables for evaluation. The results showed that the Midwest and North regions had the highest occurrence of fire foci throughout the study period, and that the North region had the highest accumulated annual rainfall. Thus, these regions require specific public policies to prevent future fires. Overall, the Midwest, Southeast, and South regions exhibit significant increasing fire foci tendencies. Our results reveal that this trend is related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, which alter climatic variables such as precipitation, land surface temperature, and the standardized precipitation index. Finally, the sugarcane growing area had a significant linear relationship with fire foci in the Southeast region, especially in the state of São Paulo, the major national sugarcane producer.

Evaluation of the MOD11A2 product for canopy temperature monitoring in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Forest canopies have an important influence on the global climate balance. Through the analysis of the temperature of the canopy, it is possible to infer about the physiological aspects of the plants, helping to understand the behavior of the vegetation and, consequently, in the environmental monitoring and management of green areas. This study aims to validate the MOD11A2 V006 product from canopy surface temperature data obtained by an infrared radiation sensor. For the validation of the MOD11A2 product, a comparative analysis was performed between the land surface temperature (LST) data, obtained by the MODIS sensor, and the canopy temperature data, obtained by the SI-111 infrared radiation sensor coupled to the Itatiaia National Park (PNI) micrometeorological tower. Meteorological variables and land surface temperature collected from January to December 2018 in the PNI were also analyzed. The results reveal that the MOD11A2 product overestimates the canopy temperature in the daytime (MB ranging from 1.56 to 3.57 °C) and underestimates in the night time (MB ranging from - 0.18 to - 4.22 °C). During daytime, the months corresponding to the dry season presented a very high correlation (r = 0.74 and 0.86) and the highest values for the Willmott index (d = 0.70 and 0.64). At nighttime, the MOD11A2 product did not present a good performance for the LST estimation, especially in the rainy season. Therefore, we observed that the MOD11A2 product has limitations to estimate the land surface temperature and that possible changes in the algorithm of this product can be performed for high atmospheric humidity conditions.

Assessment of evapotranspiration estimates based on surface and satellite data and its relationship with El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Rio de Janeiro State

The need to validate the quality of evapotranspiration estimates is essential for this parameter which has extended its use. For this, it is necessary to evaluate both new remote sensing products that expand the areas of estimated evapotranspiration and empirical equations that provide estimates with different data requirements. In order to examine this problem, the present study compared the estimates of evapotranspiration obtained by remote sensing of the MOD16A2 product and seven empirical equations with the estimates obtained through the FAO-56 reference method, with data obtained from six meteorological stations in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Data cover the period from 2007 to 2013, which contains different phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. The methods proposed by Valiantzas were those that obtained the best performances when compared with FAO-56 with R² over 90%. The non-parametric analysis of Mann-Kendall for the six seasons was mostly not significant; only the station of Resende showed a tendency of significant growth during the El Niño episode (Z = 0.283 and p value = 0.050). The mangrove and forest classes were the ones that obtained the highest averages (3.75 mm d^-1 and 3.62 mm d^-1), where the gradient of evapotranspiration can be observed in the South-Northeast portions. The MOD16A2 orbital product was inferior to the methods that used surface meteorological station data.

Anthropogenic and climatic influences in the swamp environment of the Pandeiros River basin, Minas Gerais-Brazil

Several environmental impacts are resulting from the process of anthropization and climate variability that have caused degradation of biomes and humid environments. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of the anthropic process and the variation of climatic conditions on the dynamics of the marsh vegetation in the Pandeiros River preservation area in the north of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) of product MOD13Q1 and the gross primary productivity (GPP) of product MOD17A2 of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used for the period from 2001 to 2017 were used in this process. Rain and air temperature data were obtained from the Conventional Weather Station of Januária-MG. The time series were submitted to the nonparametric statistical test of Mann-Kendall. The process of anthropization of the swamp area in the environmental protection area of the Pandeiros River/MG (EPA) showed a pattern of expansion of vegetation cover associated with the reduction of the water table, a phenomenon resulting from the silting process and reduction of the incidence of rain in this region, which contributes to the reduction of ecosystem services. Thus, understanding the influence of climatic variables on the dynamics of vegetation in humid environments, such as the EPA swamp area on the Pandeiros River, is essential for the preservation and recovery of these ecosystems and for the implementation of public policies for preservation and conservation.

Spectral trend of vegetation with rainfall in events of El Niño-Southern Oscillation for Atlantic Forest biome, Brazil

This study aimed to analyze the spectral trend of vegetation with rainfall in El Niño-Southern Oscillation events (ENSO) in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil. Monthly rainfall data were collected from 85 conventional meteorological stations (EMC), data from the Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI2) and ENSO events (El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral) in the period from 2001 to 2013. Afterwards, state cluster analysis was performed using the results of non-parametric tests. The Mann-Kendall (MK) non-parametric test did not identify a trend pattern in rainfall distribution in the Atlantic Forest. The results for EVI2 by state and region showed that the trend is decreasing in the Northeast Region, except for the states of Alagoas and Pernambuco. Southeast region showed an increasing trend of EVI2 (except for Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo), while the South region showed a decreasing trend. In the Midwest, the trend was significantly decreasing. In the prognosis elaborated for the future, the regions with significant declines of the vegetation were the Northeast and Midwest. This study shows that the Atlantic Forest in some regions of Brazil has been suffering from the growing urbanization process and there is a trend of soil degradation.

Prognosis of breast cancers detected in women receiving hormone replacement therapy

OBJECTIVE

To determine the influence of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on various prognostic factors of breast cancer (BC).

METHODS

A multi-centre case-control study was conducted, in which a comparison was made of the differences between various histological and biological clinical variables of BC detected in 121 women undergoing HRT at the time of diagnosis, and those cancers detected in 121 women of similar age not undergoing HRT. The variables were also analysed in function of the type of HRT and the length of time treated.

RESULTS

The tumours detected in patients receiving HRT presented significantly lower tumoural stages, a lower degree of affected axillary lymph node dissemination, and a greater percentage of well-differentiated tumours and positive estrogen receptors than those detected in women not under HRT. Most of these results due principally to those patients who were undergoing

CONCLUSIONS

Although the better prognosis of tumours detected in women receiving HRT may be due largely to their diagnosis at earlier stages, there is an increasing body of data leading one to think that these tumours present certain histological and biological characteristics that make such cancers less aggressive.