Integrating optimization and damage estimation to increase economic benefit and ensure food security under seasonal land variability

Rapidly increasing population and rising food demand necessitates expansion of agricultural mainland. However, with accelerated urbanization, agricultural land resources are difficult to expand. The riverine sandbars offer a vast fertile terrain that is conducive to agricultural food production and could support the global food demands despite urbanization. Nevertheless, hydroclimatic factors like streamflow and precipitation have an impact on the availability of agricultural land and potential crop damage in riverine ecosystems. The present study determines the agricultural economic benefits from cultivation in riverine sandbars through optimization framework under stochastic streamflow. A damage estimation model was developed to evaluate the economic losses an optimally planned riverine agricultural area would suffer, if the flow variation exceeds a certain threshold. The findings showed that economic benefit of ∼130 million rupees could be achieved with ∼22 million rupees of additional benefit from the proposed optimization approach. This additional benefit was in reference to the selective cropping approaches, which the farmers did not account. Furthermore, the damage estimation model could comprehend the losses under fluctuating streamflow in subsequent years that was found to vary between 5 and 34 percent. Therefore, this framework of integrating optimization and damage estimation approaches contribute to a better understanding of optimally utilizing the riverine sandbars, thereby improving the socio-economic status of marginalized communities and providing potential additional land resources to sustain food security and production. The study also highlighted the need of crop insurance facilities to assess and manage risks that could provide financial support to farmers, cover crop loss and damage arising from hydroclimatic variabilities.

Assessment of land use change in riverine ecosystem and utilizing it for socioeconomic benefit

Increasing urbanization has led to diminished agricultural mainland for food production worldwide. Riverine sandbars could be viewed as prospective landmasses which could act as additional agricultural lands. The present study emphasizes sandbar area availability and the scope of utilizing these landmasses through geospatial techniques, modelling studies and questionnaire surveys. Satellite images were derived at decadal scales to determine the change in the land-use land cover (LULC) within the Brahmaputra River in Assam, India. The fluctuations in the landmasses under different streamflow conditions were derived using a hydrodynamic model. The results showed that the percentage of vegetated sandbars has increased from ~27.36% in 1976-1980 to ~44.67% in 2016-2017, and consecutively, the percentage of non-vegetated sandbars has decreased from ~51.18 to ~30.93%. Furthermore, it was found that the area under cropland and vegetated sandbar varied seasonally. To further understand the utilization of these resources, a socioeconomic survey with a structured set of questions was conducted at various sandbars. The survey revealed various aspects of economic benefits, practices of sandbar cultivation, beneficial produce, difficulties faced, and willingness among farmers to expand sandbar cultivation. Coupling the prevailing traditional knowledge of cultivation among the farmers with scientifically derived information obtained from satellite data and mathematical model simulations can lead to a more systematic utilization of the ecosystem. Thus, the study shows the immense potential of utilizing the sandbars of large rivers to sustain food demands, alongside developing links between land-use change, ecosystem behavior, and socio-economic development.