López Vázquez PC, Sánchez González G, Martínez Ortega J, Arroyo Duarte RS. Stochastic epidemiological model: Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico.
PLoS One 2022;
17:e0275216. [PMID:
36173956 PMCID:
PMC9521938 DOI:
10.1371/journal.pone.0275216]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2022] [Accepted: 09/12/2022] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, where the number of new infected individuals caused by a single infectious individual per unit time (a day), is a random variable of a time-dependent Poisson distribution. The model, structured on the basis of a Latent-Infectious-(Recovered or Deceased) (LI(RD)) compartmental approximation together with a modulation of the mean number of new infections (the Poisson parameters), provides a good tool to study theoretical and real scenarios.
Collapse