Observational study of agreement between attending and trainee physicians on the surprise question: "Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 months?"

BACKGROUND

Optimal end-of-life care requires identifying patients that are near the end of life. The extent to which attending physicians and trainee physicians agree on the prognoses of their patients is unknown. We investigated agreement between attending and trainee physician on the surprise question: "Would you be surprised if this patient died in the next 12 months?", a question intended to assess mortality risk and unmet palliative care needs.

METHODS

This was a multicentre prospective cohort study of general internal medicine patients at 7 tertiary academic hospitals in Ontario, Canada. General internal medicine attending and senior trainee physician dyads were asked the surprise question for each of the patients for whom they were responsible. Surprise question response agreement was quantified by Cohen's kappa using Bayesian multilevel modeling to account for clustering by physician dyad. Mortality was recorded at 12 months.

RESULTS

Surprise question responses encompassed 546 patients from 30 attending-trainee physician dyads on academic general internal medicine teams at 7 tertiary academic hospitals in Ontario, Canada. Patients had median age 75 years (IQR 60-85), 260 (48%) were female, and 138 (25%) were dependent for some or all activities of daily living. Trainee and attending physician responses agreed in 406 (75%) patients with adjusted Cohen's kappa of 0.54 (95% credible interval 0.41 to 0.66). Vital status was confirmed for 417 (76%) patients of whom 160 (38% of 417) had died. Using a response of "No" to predict 12-month mortality had positive likelihood ratios of 1.84 (95% CrI 1.55 to 2.22, trainee physicians) and 1.51 (95% CrI 1.30 to 1.72, attending physicians), and negative likelihood ratios of 0.31 (95% CrI 0.17 to 0.48, trainee physicians) and 0.25 (95% CrI 0.10 to 0.46, attending physicians).

CONCLUSION

Trainee and attending physician responses to the surprise question agreed in 54% of cases after correcting for chance agreement. Physicians had similar discriminative accuracy; both groups had better accuracy predicting which patients would survive as opposed to which patients would die. Different opinions of a patient's prognosis may contribute to confusion for patients and missed opportunities for engagement with palliative care services.

Gender-Based Differences in Outcomes Among Resuscitated Patients With Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

BACKGROUND

Studies examining gender-based differences in outcomes of patients experiencing out-of-hospital cardiac arrest have demonstrated that, despite a higher likelihood of return of spontaneous circulation, women do not have higher survival.

METHODS

Patients successfully resuscitated from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest enrolled in the CCC trial (Trial of Continuous or Interrupted Chest Compressions during CPR) were included. Hierarchical multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to evaluate the association between gender and survival after adjustment for age, gender, cardiac arrest rhythm, witnessed status, bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation, episode location, epinephrine dose, emergency medical services response time, and duration of resuscitation. Do not resuscitate (DNR) and withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy (WLST) order status were used to assess whether differences in postresuscitation outcomes were modified by baseline prognosis. The analysis was replicated among ALPS trial (Amiodarone, Lidocaine, or Placebo in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest) participants.

RESULTS

Among 4875 successfully resuscitated patients, 1825 (37.4%) were women and 3050 (62.6%) were men. Women were older (67.5 versus 65.3 years), received less bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (49.1% versus 54.9%), and had a lower proportion of cardiac arrests that were witnessed (55.1% versus 64.5%) or had shockable rhythm (24.3% versus 44.6%, P<0.001 for all). A significantly higher proportion of women received DNR orders (35.7% versus 32.1%, P=0.009) and had WLST (32.8% versus 29.8%, P=0.03). Discharge survival was significantly lower in women (22.5% versus 36.3%, P<0.001; adjusted odds ratio, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.66-0.93]; P=0.005). The association between gender and survival to discharge was modified by DNR and WLST order status such that women had significantly reduced survival to discharge among patients who were not designated DNR (31.3% versus 49.9%, P=0.005; adjusted odds ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.60-0.91]) or did not have WLST (32.3% versus 50.7%, P=0.002; adjusted odds ratio, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.60-0.89]). In contrast, no gender difference in survival was noted among patients receiving a DNR order (6.7% versus 7.4%, P=0.90) or had WLST (2.8% versus 2.4%, P=0.93). Consistent patterns of association between gender and postresuscitation outcomes were observed in the secondary cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients resuscitated after experiencing out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, discharge survival was significantly lower in women than in men, especially among patients considered to have a favorable prognosis.

New Opioid Use after Invasive Mechanical Ventilation and Hospital Discharge

Rationale: Patients who receive invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) are usually exposed to opioids as part of their sedation regimen. The rates of posthospital prescribing of opioids are unknown.Objectives: To determine the frequency of persistent posthospital opioid use among patients who received IMV.Methods: We assessed opioid-naive adults who were admitted to an ICU, received IMV, and survived at least 7 days after hospital discharge in Ontario, Canada over a 26-month period (February, 2013 through March, 2015). The primary outcome was new, persistent opioid use during the year after discharge. We assessed factors associated with persistent use by multivariable logistic regression. Patients receiving IMV were also compared with matched hospitalized patients who did not receive intensive care (non-ICU).Measurements and Main Results: Among 25,085 opioid-naive patients on IMV, 5,007 (20.0%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 19.5-20.5) filled a prescription for opioids in the 7 days after hospital discharge. During the next year, 648 (2.6%; 95% CI, 2.4-2.8) of the IMV cohort met criteria for new, persistent opioid use. The patient characteristic most strongly associated with persistent use in the IMV cohort was being a surgical (vs. medical) patient (adjusted odds ratio, 3.29; 95% CI, 2.72-3.97). The rate of persistent use was slightly higher than for matched non-ICU patients (2.6% vs. 1.5%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.19-1.58]).Conclusions: A total of 20% of IMV patients received a prescription for opioids after hospital discharge, and 2.6% met criteria for persistent use, an average of 300 new persistent users per year in a population of 14 million. Receipt of surgery was the factor most strongly associated with persistent use.

Determinants of Direct Discharge Home From Critical Care Units: A Population-Based Cohort Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To describe trends and patient and system factors associated with direct discharge from critical care to home in a large health system.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study of direct discharge to home rates annually over 10 years. We used a multivariable, multilevel random-effects regression model to analyze current factors associated with direct discharge home in a subcohort from the most recent 2 years.

SETTING

One hundred seventy-four ICUs in 101 hospitals in Ontario.

PATIENTS

All patients discharged from an ICU between April 1, 2007, and March 31, 2017.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Overall, 237,200 patients (21.1%) were discharged directly home from an ICU. The rate of direct discharge to home increased from 18.6% in 2007 to 23.1% in 2017 (annual increase of 1.02; 95% CI, 1.02-1.03). There were marked variations in rates of direct discharge to home across all critical care units. For medical and surgical units, the median odds ratio was 1.76 (95% CI, 1.59-1.92). In these units, direct discharge to home was associated with younger age (odds ratio, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.34-0.39 for age 80-105 vs age 18-39), fewer comorbidities (odds ratio, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.63-1.85 for Charlson comorbidity index of 0 vs 2), diagnoses of overdose/poisoning (odds ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.23-1.47) and diabetic complications (odds ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.2-1.51), and admission after a same-day procedure (odds ratio, 2.82; 95% CI, 2.46-3.23 compared with emergency department). ICU occupancy was inversely associated with direct discharge to home with an odds ratio of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.87-0.88) for each 10% increase.

CONCLUSIONS

High rates of direct discharge to home with evidence of significant practice variation combined with identifiable patient characteristics suggest that further evaluation of this increasingly common transition in care is warranted.

Treatment of Ebola-related critical illness

PURPOSE

To explore contemporary clincial case management of patients with Ebola virus disease.

METHODS

A narrative review from a clinical perspective of clinical features, diagnostic tests, treatments and outcomes of patients with Ebola virus disease.

RESULTS

Substantial advances have been made in the care of patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD), precipitated by the unprecedented extent of the 2014-2016 outbreak. There has been improved point-of-care diagnostics, improved characterization of the clinical course of EVD, improved patient-optimized standards of care, evaluation of effective anti-Ebola therapies, administration of effective vaccines, and development of innovative Ebola treatment units. A better understanding of the Ebola virus disease clinical syndrome has led to the appreciation of a central role for critical care clinicians-over 50% of patients have life-threatening complications, including hypotension, severe electrolyte imbalance, acute kidney injury, metabolic acidosis and respiratory failure. Accordingly, patients often require critical care interventions such as monitoring of vital signs, intravenous fluid resuscitation, intravenous vasoactive medications, frequent diagnostic laboratory testing, renal replacement therapy, oxygen and occasionally mechanical ventilation.

CONCLUSION

With advanced training and adherence to infection prevention and control practices, clinical interventions, including critical care, are feasible and safe to perform in critically ill patients. With specific anti-Ebola medications, most patients can survive Ebola virus infection.

Barriers to supportive care during the Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa: Results of a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

During the 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola outbreak, supportive care was the only non-experimental treatment option for patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD). However, providing care that would otherwise be routine for most clinical settings in the context of a highly contagious and lethal pathogen is much more challenging. The objective of this study was to document and deepen understanding of barriers to provision of supportive care in Ebola treatment units (ETUs) as perceived by those involved in care delivery during the outbreak.

METHODS

This qualitative study consisted of 29 in-depth semi-structured interviews with stakeholders (decision-makers, physicians, nurses) involved in patient care delivery during the outbreak. Analysis consisted of interview debriefing and team-based transcript coding in NVivo10 software using thematic analysis.

FINDINGS

Participants emphasized three interconnected barriers to providing high-quality supportive care during the outbreak: 1) lack of material and human resources in ETUs; 2) ETU organizational structure limiting the provision of supportive clinical care; and 3) delayed and poorly coordinated policies limiting the effectiveness of global and national responses. Participants also noted the ethical complexities of defining and enacting best clinical practices in low-income countries. They noted tension between, on one hand, scaling up minimal care and investing in clinical care preparedness to a level sustainable in West Africa and, on the other, providing a higher level of supportive care, which in low-resource health systems would require important investments.

CONCLUSION

Our findings identified potentially modifiable barriers to the delivery of supportive care to patients with EVD in West Africa. Addressing these in the inter-outbreak period will be useful to improve patient care and outcomes during inevitable future outbreaks. Promoting community trust and engagement through long-term capacity building of the healthcare workforce and infrastructure would increase both health system resilience and ability to handle other outbreaks of emerging diseases.

An Improved Detached-Leaf Assay for Phenotyping Net Blotch of Barley Caused by Pyrenophora teres

Net blotch, caused by Pyrenophora teres, is a major barley (Hordeum vulgare) leaf disease worldwide. P. teres occurs as two forms-P. teres f. teres, and P. teres f. maculata-inducing net and spot-like symptoms, respectively. An intact-seedling assay, where entire seedlings are inoculated by spraying with a conidial suspension, is frequently used for phenotyping net blotch. However, this presents a biosecurity risk in the glasshouse when nonlocal isolates are being screened. Alternatively, a detached-leaf assay (DLA-droplet method) can be used in which leaf segments laid out in a covered tray are inoculated with droplets of a conidial suspension, confining the inoculum. However, using this method, net and spot form symptoms cannot be distinguished from each other. We have developed an improved DLA (DLA-spray method) in which detached whole leaves are sprayed with the inoculum to produce distinct lesions. We compare the results for the three phenotyping methods above using four isolates from both net and spot forms of the disease to inoculate a standard set of eight barley genotypes. Results indicate that the DLA-spray method is a functional, informative and rapid test that readily differentiates the two forms of the pathogen in a biosecure environment.

Transfers from intensive care unit to hospital ward: a multicentre textual analysis of physician progress notes

BACKGROUND

Little is known about documentation during transitions of patient care between clinical specialties. Therefore, we examined the focus, structure and purpose of physician progress notes for patients transferred from the intensive care unit (ICU) to hospital ward to identify opportunities to improve communication breaks.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study in ten Canadian hospitals. We analyzed physician progress notes for consenting adult patients transferred from a medical-surgical ICU to hospital ward. The number, length, legibility and content of notes was counted and compared across care settings using mixed-effects linear regression models accounting for clustering within hospitals. Qualitative content analyses were conducted on a stratified random sample of 32 patients.

RESULTS

A total of 447 patient medical records that included 7052 progress notes (mean 2.1 notes/patient/day 95% CI 1.9-2.3) were analyzed. Notes written by the ICU team were significantly longer than notes written by the ward team (mean lines of text 21 vs. 15, p < 0.001). There was a discrepancy between documentation of patient issues in the last ICU and first ward notes; mean agreement of patient issues was 42% [95% CI 31-53%]. Qualitative analyses identified eight themes related to focus (central point - e.g., problem list), structure (organization, - e.g., note-taking style), and purpose (intention - e.g., documentation of patient course) of the notes that varied across clinical specialties and physician seniority.

CONCLUSIONS

Important gaps and variations in written documentation during transitions of patient care between ICU and hospital ward physicians are common, and include discrepancies in documentation of patient information.

Zika virus-induced neurological critical illness in Latin America: Severe Guillain-Barre Syndrome and encephalitis

Zika virus (ZIKAV) is classically described as causing minor symptoms in adult patients, however neurologic complications have been recognized. The recent outbreak in Central and South America has resulted in serious illness in some adult patients. We report adult patients in Latin America diagnosed with ZIKAV infection admitted to Intensive Care Units (ICUs).

METHODS

Multicenter, prospective case series of adult patients with laboratory diagnosis of ZIKAV in 16 ICUs in 8 countries.

RESULTS

Between December 1st 2015 and April 2nd 2016, 16 ICUs in 8 countries enrolled 49 critically ill patients with diagnosis of ZIKAV infection. We included 10 critically ill patients with ZIKAV infection, as diagnosed with RT-PCR, admitted to the ICU. Neurologic manifestations concordant with Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) were present in all patients, although 2 evolved into an encephalitis-like picture. 2 cases died, one due to encephalitis, the other septic shock.

CONCLUSIONS

Differing from what was usually reported, ZIKAV infection can result in life-threatening neurologic illness in adults, including GBS and encephalitis. Collaborative reporting to identify severe illness from an emerging pathogen can provide valuable insights into disease epidemiology and clinical presentation, and inform public health authorities about acute care priorities.

Long-term outcomes and healthcare utilization following critical illness--a population-based study

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to examine hospital mortality, long-term mortality, and health service utilization among critically ill patients. We also determined whether these outcomes differed according to demographic and clinical characteristics.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults (age ≥ 18 years) who survived admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) in Ontario, Canada, between 1 April 2002 and 31 March 2012, excluding isolated admissions to step-down or intermediate ICUs, coronary care ICUs, or cardiac surgery ICUs. Adults (age ≥ 18 years) who survived an acute hospitalization that did not include an ICU stay formed the comparator group. The primary outcome was mortality following hospital discharge. Secondary outcomes were healthcare utilization, including emergency room admissions and hospital readmissions during follow-up.

RESULTS

Over the study interval, 500,124 patients were admitted to ICUs and 420,187 (84%) survived to hospital discharge. Median follow-up for survivors was 5.3 (interquartile range 2.5, 8.2) years. Patients admitted to an ICU were more likely to subsequently visit the emergency department, be readmitted to the hospital and ICU, receive home care support, require rehabilitation, and be admitted for long-term care. Those requiring more resources within the ICU required more resources after discharge. One-third of patients admitted to the ICU died during long-term follow-up, with overall probabilities of death of 11% and 29% at 1 year and 5 years, respectively. In the adjusted analysis, there was an increasing hazard of death with increasing age, reaching a hazard ratio of 18.08 (95 % confidence interval 16.60-19.68) for those ≥ 85 years of age compared with those aged 18-24 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Healthcare utilization after hospital discharge was higher among ICU patients, and also among those requiring more healthcare resources during their ICU admission, than among all hospitalized patients as a group. One-third of ICU patients died within the 5 years following discharge, and age was the most influential determinant of outcome. These findings should help target post-ICU discharge services for high-risk groups and better inform goals-of-care discussions for elderly critically ill patients.

Medical record review as a measure of the effectiveness of organ procurement practices in the hospital

Organ procurement efforts are central to the transplant sector of the health care system, yet procurement effectiveness is not routinely assessed. MRRs provide a solid foundation for identifying gaps in organ procurement performance, implementing and tracking the success of QI initiatives, and monitoring ongoing performance.