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Gonzalez-Martinez A, Pagán J, Sanz-García A, García-Azorín D, Rodriguez Vico JS, Jaimes A, Gómez García A, Díaz de Terán J, González-García N, Quintas S, Belascoaín R, Casas Limón J, Latorre G, Calle de Miguel C, Sierra Á, Guerrero-Peral ÁL, Trevino-Peinado C, Gago-Veiga AB. Machine-learning based approach to predict anti-CGRP response in patients with migraine: multicenter Spanish study. Eur J Neurol 2022; 29:3102-3111. [PMID: 35726393 DOI: 10.1111/ene.15458] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2022] [Accepted: 06/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND To date, several variables have been associated with anti-CGRP receptor or ligand-antibody response with disparate results. Our objective is to determine whether machine learning (ML)-based models can predict 6, 9 and 12 months response to anti-CGRP receptor or ligand therapies among migraine patients. METHODS We performed a multicenter analysis of a prospectively collected data cohort of patients with migraine receiving anti-CGRP therapies. Demographic and clinical variables were collected. Response rate defined in the 30% to 50% range -or at least 30%-, in the 50% to 75% range -or at least 50%-, and response rate over 75% reduction in the number of headache days per month at 6, 9 and 12 months. A sequential forward feature selector was used for variable selection and ML-based predictive models response to anti-CGRP therapies at 6, 9 and 12 months, with models' accuracy not less than 70%, were generated. RESULTS A total of 712 patients were included, 93% women, aged 48 years (SD=11.7). Eighty-three percent had chronic migraine. ML models using headache days/month, migraine days/month and HIT-6 variables yielded predictions with a F1 score range of 0.70-0.97 and AUC (area under the receiver operating curve) score range of 0.87-0.98. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) summary plots and dependence plots were generated to evaluate the relevance of the factors associated with the prediction of the above-mentioned response rates. CONCLUSIONS According to our study, ML models can predict anti-CGRP response at 6, 9 and 12 months. This study provides a predictive tool to be used in a real-world setting.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alicia Gonzalez-Martinez
- Headache Unit, Neurology Department, Hospital Universitario de la Princesa & Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria La Princesa, Madrid, Spain
| | - Josué Pagán
- Universidad Politécnica de Madrid and Center for Computational Simulation of Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Ancor Sanz-García
- Headache Unit, Neurology Department, Hospital Universitario de la Princesa & Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria La Princesa, Madrid, Spain
| | - David García-Azorín
- Headache Unit, Neurology Department, Department of Medicine, University of Valladolid, Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
| | | | - Alex Jaimes
- Headache Unit, Neurology Department, Fundación Jiménez Díaz, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Javier Díaz de Terán
- Headache Unit, Neurology Department, Hospital Universitario La Paz, Madrid, Spain
| | - Nuria González-García
- Headache Unit, Neurology Department, Hospital Universitario Clínico San Carlos, Madrid, Spain
| | - Sonia Quintas
- Headache Unit, Neurology Department, Hospital Universitario de la Princesa & Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria La Princesa, Madrid, Spain
| | - Rocio Belascoaín
- Headache Unit, Neurology Department, Hospital Universitario de la Princesa & Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria La Princesa, Madrid, Spain
| | - Javier Casas Limón
- Headache Unit Neurology Department, Hospital Universitario Fundación de Alcorcón, Alcorcón, Spain
| | - Germán Latorre
- Headache Unit, Neurology Department, Hospital Universitario de Fuenlabrada, Madrid, Spain
| | - Carlos Calle de Miguel
- Headache Unit, Neurology Department, Hospital Universitario de Fuenlabrada, Madrid, Spain
| | - Álvaro Sierra
- Headache Unit, Neurology Department, Department of Medicine, University of Valladolid, Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
| | - Ángel Luis Guerrero-Peral
- Headache Unit, Neurology Department, Department of Medicine, University of Valladolid, Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
| | | | - Ana Beatriz Gago-Veiga
- Headache Unit, Neurology Department, Hospital Universitario de la Princesa & Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria La Princesa, Madrid, Spain
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