[Survival analysis of long-term HIV/AIDS cases aged 15 years and over under antiretroviral treatment in Henan Province from 2002 to 2020]

Objective: To analyze the survival and influencing factors of HIV infections and AIDS cases (HIV/AIDS) aged 15 years and over who had received antiretroviral treatment (ART) for more than 10 years in Henan Province. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, data of HIV infections and AIDS cases in Henan province were collected from the AIDS Prevention and Control System between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2020. This study included 20 256 participants alive after 10-year ART with complete baseline and follow-up information, such as demographic characteristics, CD4⁺T lymphocyte count and viral load. Cox proportional risk regression model was used to analyze influencing factors of HIV/AIDS survival. Results: A total of 20 256 participants were followed up for 82 738.2 person-years, with an average follow-up of 4.1 person-years, of which most cases were blood transmission (85.5%) and married (71.2%). The male to female ratio was 1∶1.06 and the age at 10 years of ART was (51.2±8.7) years old. About 88.5% of HIV/AIDS patients received ART in village/township treatment institutions. Overall, there were 2 030 deaths during this period, among which 1 897 were due to AIDS-related diseases (93.5%) and the case fatality rate was 9.4% (1 897/20 256). Cox proportional risk regression model showed that participants aged 40-54, 55-69, and ≥70 years had a higher risk of death compared to those aged 25-39, with adjusted HRs (95%CI) of 1.57 (1.19-2.08), 3.78 (2.86-4.99), and 6.17 (4.33-8.79), respectively. Participants with the initial CD4⁺T lymphocyte count about 200-349/μl and<200/μl had a higher risk of death compared to those with initial CD4⁺T lymphocyte count ≥350/μl, with adjusted HRs (95%CI) of 1.81 (1.61-2.04) and 3.64 (3.20-4.15), respectively. Participants with the initial viral load outcome ≥1 000 copies/ml had a higher risk of death compared to those with the initial viral load outcome<1 000 copies/ml, with adjusted HRs (95%CI) of 1.73 (1.52-1.97). Participants receiving the second-line ART had a lower risk of death compared to those receiving the first-line ART, with adjusted HRs (95%CI) of 0.12 (0.11-0.14). Conclusion: From 2002 to 2020, the survival rate of HIV/AIDS treated with ART for more than 10 years is high in Henan Province. Age, CD4⁺T lymphocyte count and viral load are influencing factors of HIV/AIDS survival.