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Izadi Z, Gianfrancesco MA, Aguirre A, Strangfeld A, Mateus EF, Hyrich KL, Gossec L, Carmona L, Lawson‐Tovey S, Kearsley‐Fleet L, Schaefer M, Seet AM, Schmajuk G, Jacobsohn L, Katz P, Rush S, Al‐Emadi S, Sparks JA, Hsu TY, Patel NJ, Wise L, Gilbert E, Duarte‐García A, Valenzuela‐Almada MO, Ugarte‐Gil MF, Ribeiro SLE, de Oliveira Marinho A, de Azevedo Valadares LD, Giuseppe DD, Hasseli R, Richter JG, Pfeil A, Schmeiser T, Isnardi CA, Reyes Torres AA, Alle G, Saurit V, Zanetti A, Carrara G, Labreuche J, Barnetche T, Herasse M, Plassart S, Santos MJ, Rodrigues AM, Robinson PC, Machado PM, Sirotich E, Liew JW, Hausmann JS, Sufka P, Grainger R, Bhana S, Costello W, Wallace ZS, Yazdany J. Development of a Prediction Model for COVID-19 Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases: Results From the Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry. ACR Open Rheumatol 2022; 4:872-882. [PMID: 35869686 PMCID: PMC9350083 DOI: 10.1002/acr2.11481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2022] [Accepted: 05/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Some patients with rheumatic diseases might be at higher risk for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We aimed to develop a prediction model for COVID-19 ARDS in this population and to create a simple risk score calculator for use in clinical settings. METHODS Data were derived from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance Registry from March 24, 2020, to May 12, 2021. Seven machine learning classifiers were trained on ARDS outcomes using 83 variables obtained at COVID-19 diagnosis. Predictive performance was assessed in a US test set and was validated in patients from four countries with independent registries using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A simple risk score calculator was developed using a regression model incorporating the most influential predictors from the best performing classifier. RESULTS The study included 8633 patients from 74 countries, of whom 523 (6%) had ARDS. Gradient boosting had the highest mean AUC (0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67-0.88) and was considered the top performing classifier. Ten predictors were identified as key risk factors and were included in a regression model. The regression model that predicted ARDS with 71% (95% CI: 61%-83%) sensitivity in the test set, and with sensitivities ranging from 61% to 80% in countries with independent registries, was used to develop the risk score calculator. CONCLUSION We were able to predict ARDS with good sensitivity using information readily available at COVID-19 diagnosis. The proposed risk score calculator has the potential to guide risk stratification for treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies, that have potential to reduce COVID-19 disease progression.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Elsa F. Mateus
- Portuguese League Against Rheumatic DiseasesLisbonPortugal
| | - Kimme L. Hyrich
- The University of Manchester and National Institute for Health Research Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester University and NHS Foundation TrustManchesterUK
| | - Laure Gossec
- INSERM, Sorbonne Universite and Hopital Universitaire Pitie Salpetriere, AP‐HPParisFrance
| | | | - Saskia Lawson‐Tovey
- The University of Manchester and National Institute for Health Research Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust and Manchester Academic Health Science CentreManchesterUK
| | - Lianne Kearsley‐Fleet
- The University of Manchester and Manchester Academic Health Science CentreManchesterUK
| | | | | | - Gabriela Schmajuk
- University of CaliforniaSan Francisco and San Francisco Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center
| | | | | | | | | | - Jeffrey A. Sparks
- Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical SchoolBostonMassachusetts
| | - Tiffany Y‐T Hsu
- Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical SchoolBostonMassachusetts
| | - Naomi J. Patel
- Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical SchoolBoston
| | - Leanna Wise
- University of Southern CaliforniaLos Angeles
| | | | | | | | - Manuel F. Ugarte‐Gil
- Universidad Científica del Sur and Hospital Nacional Guillermo Almenara IrigoyenEsSalud, LimaPeru
| | | | | | | | | | - Rebecca Hasseli
- Justus‐Liebig University Giessen, Campus KerckhoffGiessenGermany
| | | | - Alexander Pfeil
- Jena University Hospital and Friedrich Schiller University JenaJenaGermany
| | - Tim Schmeiser
- Rheumatology im Veedel (Private Practice)CologneGermany
| | | | | | | | | | - Anna Zanetti
- Italian Society for Rheumatology and University of Milano‐BicoccaMilanItaly
| | - Greta Carrara
- Italian Society for Rheumatology and University of Milano‐BicoccaMilanItaly
| | | | - Thomas Barnetche
- FHU ACRONIM, Centre for Autoimmune Systemic Rare Diseases, Bordeaux University HospitalBordeauxFrance
| | - Muriel Herasse
- Filière des Maladies Autoimmunes et Autoinflammatoires Rares, Hôpital Huriez, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de LilleLilleFrance
| | - Samira Plassart
- Filière des Maladies Autoimmunes et Autoinflammatoires Rares, Hôpital Huriez, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de LilleLilleFrance
| | - Maria José Santos
- Hospital Garcia de Orta, Almada, Portugal, and Instituto de Medicina Molecular Faculdade Medicina and Rheumatic Diseases Portuguese RegisterLisbonPortugal
| | - Ana Maria Rodrigues
- Rheumatic Diseases Portuguese Register, Sociedade Portuguesa de Reumatologia, Nova Medical School, and Hospital dos LusiadasLisbonPortugal
| | - Philip C. Robinson
- The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, and Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Metro North Hospital and Health ServiceHerstonQueenslandAustralia
| | - Pedro M. Machado
- University College London, University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and Northwick Park Hospital, London North West University Healthcare NHS TrustLondonUK
| | - Emily Sirotich
- McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, and Canadian Arthritis Patient AllianceTorontoOntarioCanada
| | - Jean W. Liew
- Boston University School of MedicineBostonMassachusetts
| | - Jonathan S. Hausmann
- Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School and Boston Children's HospitalBostonMassachusetts
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