Exo-SIR: an epidemiological model to analyze the impact of exogenous spread of infection

Epidemics like Covid-19 and Ebola have impacted people's lives significantly. The impact of mobility of people across the countries or states in the spread of epidemics has been significant. The spread of disease due to factors local to the population under consideration is termed the endogenous spread. The spread due to external factors like migration, mobility, etc., is called the exogenous spread. In this paper, we introduce the Exo-SIR model, an extension of the popular SIR model and a few variants of the model. The novelty in our model is that it captures both the exogenous and endogenous spread of the virus. First, we present an analytical study. Second, we simulate the Exo-SIR model with and without assuming contact network for the population. Third, we implement the Exo-SIR model on real datasets regarding Covid-19 and Ebola. We found that endogenous infection is influenced by exogenous infection. Furthermore, we found that the Exo-SIR model predicts the peak time better than the SIR model. Hence, the Exo-SIR model would be helpful for governments to plan policy interventions at the time of a pandemic.

Prevention of febrile neutropenia: use of prophylactic antibiotics

Febrile neutropenia (FN) causes significant morbidity and mortality in patients receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy and can lead to reduced chemotherapy dose intensity and increased overall treatment costs. Antibiotic prophylaxis reduces the incidence of FN. Recent research and meta-analyses confirm that prophylactic fluoroquinolones decrease FN and infection-related mortality in patients with acute leukaemia and those receiving high-dose chemotherapy. Fluoroquinolone prophylaxis also lowers the incidence of FN and all-cause mortality following the first cycle of myelosuppressive chemotherapy for solid tumours. Levofloxacin has been the agent studied most thoroughly in this context. Although there is no convincing evidence that colonisation of individuals with resistant organisms due to antibiotic prophylaxis increases FN or mortality, such concerns must be taken seriously and the use of prophylaxis should be limited responsibly for patients with the greatest chance of benefit. Fluoroquinolone prophylaxis is well tolerated and cost-effective and should be offered to patients receiving chemotherapy for haematological malignancies and high-dose chemotherapy for solid tumours in which prolonged (>7 days) neutropenia is expected. It should also be considered for those receiving chemotherapy for solid tumours and lymphomas during the first cycle of chemotherapy when grade 4 neutropenia is anticipated.

Biliary ascariasis associated with periampullary carcinoma

A 65 year old man presented with obstructive jaundice, biliary colics and recurrent cholangitis. Sonography revealed dilated intrahepatic biliary radicles and common bile duct. Bile duct also showed linear parallel intraluminal structures suggesting biliary ascariasis. The lower end of common bile duct and pancreatic region showed a mass which proved to be a coexistent periampullary carcinoma.