3
|
Fitzmaurice C, Akinyemiju TF, Al Lami FH, Alam T, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Allen C, Alsharif U, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini E, Anderson BO, Aremu O, Artaman A, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Atey TM, Avila-Burgos L, Awasthi A, Ba Saleem HO, Barac A, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Bhakta N, Brenner H, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Choi JYJ, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Curado MP, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Doku DT, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Ebrahimi H, Edessa D, El-Khatib Z, Endries AY, Fischer F, Force LM, Foreman KJ, Gebrehiwot SW, Gopalani SV, Grosso G, Gupta R, Gyawali B, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Harvey J, Hassen HY, Hay RJ, Hay SI, Heibati B, Hiluf MK, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Ilesanmi OS, Innos K, Islami F, Jakovljevic MB, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Kasaeian A, Kassa TD, Khader YS, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kopec JA, Kumar GA, Kutz M, Lad DP, Lafranconi A, Lan Q, Legesse Y, Leigh J, Linn S, Lunevicius R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mantovani LG, McMahon BJ, Meier T, Melaku YA, Melku M, Memiah P, Mendoza W, Meretoja TJ, Mezgebe HB, Miller TR, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Moosazadeh M, Moraga P, Mousavi SM, Nangia V, Nguyen CT, Nong VM, Ogbo FA, Olagunju AT, Pa M, Park EK, Patel T, Pereira DM, Pishgar F, Postma MJ, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Roshandel G, Safiri S, Salimzadeh H, Sanabria JR, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sepanlou SG, Shackelford KA, Shaikh MA, Sharif-Alhoseini M, She J, Shin MJ, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sinke AH, Sisay M, Sligar A, Sufiyan MB, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tessema GA, Topor-Madry R, Tran TT, Tran BX, Ukwaja KN, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Weiderpass E, Williams HC, Yimer NB, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Murray CJL, Naghavi M. Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2016: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. JAMA Oncol 2018; 4:1553-1568. [PMID: 29860482 PMCID: PMC6248091 DOI: 10.1001/jamaoncol.2018.2706] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1054] [Impact Index Per Article: 175.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
IMPORTANCE The increasing burden due to cancer and other noncommunicable diseases poses a threat to human development, which has resulted in global political commitments reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Action Plan on Non-Communicable Diseases. To determine if these commitments have resulted in improved cancer control, quantitative assessments of the cancer burden are required. OBJECTIVE To assess the burden for 29 cancer groups over time to provide a framework for policy discussion, resource allocation, and research focus. EVIDENCE REVIEW Cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were evaluated for 195 countries and territories by age and sex using the Global Burden of Disease study estimation methods. Levels and trends were analyzed over time, as well as by the Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Changes in incident cases were categorized by changes due to epidemiological vs demographic transition. FINDINGS In 2016, there were 17.2 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.9 million deaths. Cancer cases increased by 28% between 2006 and 2016. The smallest increase was seen in high SDI countries. Globally, population aging contributed 17%; population growth, 12%; and changes in age-specific rates, -1% to this change. The most common incident cancer globally for men was prostate cancer (1.4 million cases). The leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (1.2 million deaths and 25.4 million DALYs). For women, the most common incident cancer and the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs was breast cancer (1.7 million incident cases, 535 000 deaths, and 14.9 million DALYs). In 2016, cancer caused 213.2 million DALYs globally for both sexes combined. Between 2006 and 2016, the average annual age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 130 of 195 countries or territories, and the average annual age-standardized death rates decreased within that timeframe in 143 of 195 countries or territories. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Large disparities exist between countries in cancer incidence, deaths, and associated disability. Scaling up cancer prevention and ensuring universal access to cancer care are required for health equity and to fulfill the global commitments for noncommunicable disease and cancer control.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Christina Fitzmaurice
- Division of Hematology, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, Washington
| | | | | | - Tahiya Alam
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Reza Alizadeh-Navaei
- Gastrointestinal Cancer Research Center, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Christine Allen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Ubai Alsharif
- Charite University Medicine Berlin, Charité Universitätsmedizin, Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Nelson Alvis-Guzman
- ALZAK Foundation-Universidad de la Costa, Universidad de Cartagena, Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia
| | - Erfan Amini
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Uro-Oncology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Olatunde Aremu
- Birmingham City, University Department of Public Health and Therapies, Birmingham, England
| | - Al Artaman
- University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | | | - Reza Assadi
- Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran
| | | | | | - Ashish Awasthi
- Indian Institute of Public Health, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India
| | | | - Aleksandra Barac
- Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - James R Bennett
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | | | - Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela
- Colombian National Health Observatory, Instituto Nacional de Salud, Bogota, Bogota, DC, Colombia
- Epidemiology and Public Health Evaluation Group, Public Health Department, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia
| | - Ferrán Catalá-López
- Department of Medicine, University of Valencia, INCLIVA Health Research Institute and CIBERSAM, Valencia, Spain
- Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Jee-Young Jasmine Choi
- Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea
- Seoul National University Medical Library, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Sheng-Chia Chung
- The Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, England
| | - Maria Paula Curado
- Accamargo Cancer Center, Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
- International Prevention Research Institute, Ecully, France
| | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
| | - Rakhi Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
| | - José das Neves
- INEB-Instituto de Engenharia Biomédica, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
- i3S-Instituto de Investigação e Inovação em Saúde, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | | | - Samath D Dharmaratne
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka
| | - David Teye Doku
- University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana
- University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland
| | - Tim R Driscoll
- Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Manisha Dubey
- International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
| | - Hedyeh Ebrahimi
- Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Liver and Pancreaticobiliary Diseases Research Center, Digestive Disease Research Institute, Shariati Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Ziad El-Khatib
- Department of Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Kigali, Rwanda
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Florian Fischer
- School of Public Health, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany
| | - Lisa M Force
- St Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee
| | - Kyle J Foreman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Imperial College London, London, England
| | | | - Sameer Vali Gopalani
- Department of Health and Social Affairs, Government of the Federated States of Micronesia, Palikir, Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia
| | - Giuseppe Grosso
- University Hospital Policlinico "Vittorio Emanuele," Catania, Italy
- NNEdPro Global Centre for Nutrition and Health, Cambridge, England
| | - Rahul Gupta
- West Virginia Bureau for Public Health, Charleston
| | | | | | - Samer Hamidi
- Haan Bin Mohammed Smart University, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | - James Harvey
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Roderick J Hay
- International Foundation for Dermatology, London, England
- King's College London, London, England
| | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, England
| | - Behzad Heibati
- Air Pollution Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Nobuyuki Horita
- Department of Pulmonology, Yokohama City University Graduate School of Medicine, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - H Dean Hosgood
- Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, New York, USA
| | | | - Kaire Innos
- National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia
| | - Farhad Islami
- Surveillance and Health Services Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Mihajlo B Jakovljevic
- Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Central Serbia, Serbia
- Center for Health Trends and Forecasts, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Jost B Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Ruprecht-Karls-University Heidelberg, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Amir Kasaeian
- Hematologic Malignancies Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Hematology-Oncology and Stem Cell Transplantation Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Yousef Saleh Khader
- Department of Community Medicine, Public Health and Family Medicine, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | | | - Gulfaraz Khan
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, College of Medicine & Health Sciences, United Arab Emirates University, Al Ain, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Young-Ho Khang
- Department of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University Medical Center, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Mohammad Hossein Khosravi
- Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- International Otorhinolaryngology Research Association (IORA), Universal Scientific Education and Research Network (USERN), Tehran, Iran
| | - Jagdish Khubchandani
- Department of Nutrition and Health Science, Ball State University, Muncie, Indiana
| | - Jacek A Kopec
- University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurugram, National Capital Region, India
| | - Michael Kutz
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | - Qing Lan
- National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland
| | | | - James Leigh
- University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Raimundas Lunevicius
- Aintree University Hospital National Health Service Foundation Trust, Liverpool, England
- School of Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, England
| | - Azeem Majeed
- Department of Primary Care & Public Health, Imperial College London, London, England
| | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | | | - Toni Meier
- Competence Cluster for Nutrition and Cardiovascular Health (nutriCARD), Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Saale, Germany
| | - Yohannes Adama Melaku
- School of Medicine, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
| | | | | | | | - Tuomo J Meretoja
- Comprehensive Cancer Center, Breast Surgery Unit, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland
- University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | | | - Ted R Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland
- School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
| | - Shafiu Mohammed
- Health Systems and Policy Research Unit, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
- Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Baden Wuettemberg, Germany
| | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mahmood Moosazadeh
- Health Science Research Center, Addiction Institute, Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, Sari, Iran
| | - Paula Moraga
- Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Lancaster, England
| | - Seyyed Meysam Mousavi
- Department of Health Management and Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Cuong Tat Nguyen
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Vuong Minh Nong
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Felix Akpojene Ogbo
- Centre for Health Research, Western Sydney University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Andrew Toyin Olagunju
- Department of Psychiatry, College of Medicine, University of Lagos, Lagos, Lagos State, Nigeria
- Department of Psychiatry, Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria
- Discipline of Psychiatry, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Mahesh Pa
- JSS Medical College (PA), JSS University, Mysore, Karnataka, India
| | - Eun-Kee Park
- Department of Medical Humanities and Social Medicine, College of Medicine, Kosin University, Busan, South Korea
| | - Tejas Patel
- White Plains Hospital, White Plains, New York
| | - David M Pereira
- REQUIMTE/LAQV, Laboratório de Farmacognosia, Departamento de Química, Faculdade de Farmácia, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Farhad Pishgar
- Uro-Oncology Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Maarten J Postma
- University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
- University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
| | | | - Mostafa Qorbani
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Anwar Rafay
- Contech International Health Consultants, Lahore, Pakistan
- Contech School of Public Health, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | - David Laith Rawaf
- North Hampshire Hospitals, Basingstroke, England
- University College London Hospitals, London, England
- WHO Collaborating Centre, Imperial College of London, London, England
| | - Gholamreza Roshandel
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
- Golestan Research Center of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Gorgan, Iran
| | - Saeid Safiri
- Managerial Epidemiology Research Center, Department of Public Health, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Maragheh University of Medical Sciences, Maragheh, Iran
| | | | - Juan Ramon Sanabria
- Joan C. Edwards School of Medicine, Marshall University, Huntington, West Virginia
- Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
| | - Milena M Santric Milicevic
- Centre School of Public Health and Health Management, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
- Institute of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
| | - Benn Sartorius
- Public Health Medicine, School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- UKZN Gastrointestinal Cancer Research Centre, South African Medical Research Council, Durban, South Africa
| | - Maheswar Satpathy
- Centre of Advanced Study in Psychology, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, India
| | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini
- Sina Trauma and Surgery Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Jun She
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital (She), Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Min-Jeong Shin
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Ivy Shiue
- Alzheimer Scotland Dementia Research Centre, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland
- Institut für Medizinische Epidemiologie, Biometrie und Informatik, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Saale, Germany
| | | | | | | | - Amber Sligar
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Bryan L Sykes
- Departments of Criminology, Law & Society, Sociology, and Public Health, University of California, Irvine
| | - Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos
- Department of Medicine, University of Valencia, INCLIVA Health Research Institute and CIBERSAM, Valencia, Spain
| | - Gizachew Assefa Tessema
- University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
- University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
| | - Roman Topor-Madry
- Institute of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Kraków, Poland
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Wroclaw Medical University, Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Tung Thanh Tran
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Bach Xuan Tran
- Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
- Hanoi Medical University, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja
- Department of Internal Medicine, Federal Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Ebonyi State, Nigeria
| | | | - Stein Emil Vollset
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Elisabete Weiderpass
- Department of Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Institute of Population-Based Cancer Research, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Community Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Tromsø, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
- Genetic Epidemiology Group, Folkhälsan Research Center, Helsinki, Finland
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Hywel C Williams
- Centre of Evidence-Based Dermatology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, England
| | | | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | | | | | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Kassebaum N, Kyu HH, Zoeckler L, Olsen HE, Thomas K, Pinho C, Bhutta ZA, Dandona L, Ferrari A, Ghiwot TT, Hay SI, Kinfu Y, Liang X, Lopez A, Malta DC, Mokdad AH, Naghavi M, Patton GC, Salomon J, Sartorius B, Topor-Madry R, Vollset SE, Werdecker A, Whiteford HA, Abate KH, Abbas K, Damtew SA, Ahmed MB, Akseer N, Al-Raddadi R, Alemayohu MA, Altirkawi K, Abajobir AA, Amare AT, Antonio CAT, Arnlov J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Bacha U, Betsu BD, Barac A, Bärnighausen TW, Baye E, Bedi N, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabe E, Bernal OA, Beyene AS, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Boyce CA, Brazinova A, Hailu GB, Carter A, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Charlson FJ, Chitheer AA, Choi JYJ, Ciobanu LG, Crump J, Dandona R, Dellavalle RP, Deribew A, deVeber G, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dubey M, Endries AY, Erskine HE, Faraon EJA, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fernandes JC, Fijabi DO, Fitzmaurice C, Fleming TD, Flor LS, Foreman KJ, Franklin RC, Fraser MS, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Gebregergs GB, Gebru AA, Geleijnse JM, Gibney KB, Gidey Yihdego M, Ginawi IAM, Gishu MD, Gizachew TA, Glaser E, Gold AL, Goldberg E, Gona P, Goto A, Gugnani HC, Jiang G, Gupta R, Tesfay FH, Hankey GJ, Havmoeller R, Hijar M, Horino M, Hosgood HD, Hu G, Jacobsen KH, Jakovljevic MB, Jayaraman SP, Jha V, Jibat T, Johnson CO, Jonas J, Kasaeian A, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Khalil I, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Ahmad Kiadaliri AA, Kieling C, Kim D, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Koyanagi A, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kulikoff R, Kumar GA, Lal DK, Lam HY, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Leung J, Lim SS, Lo LT, Lo WD, Looker KJ, Lotufo PA, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Malekzadeh R, Markos Shifti D, Mazidi M, Meaney PA, Meles KG, Memiah P, Mendoza W, Abera Mengistie M, Mengistu GW, Mensah GA, Miller TR, Mock C, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Mueller U, Nagata C, Naheed A, Nguyen G, Nguyen QL, Nsoesie E, Oh IH, Okoro A, Olusanya JO, Olusanya BO, Ortiz A, Paudel D, Pereira DM, Perico N, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Polanczyk GV, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rai RK, Ram U, Rankin Z, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Roba HS, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Sagar R, Sanabria JR, Kedir Mohammed MS, Santos IS, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Sepanlou SG, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, She J, Shiri R, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Singh J, Silpakit N, Smith A, Sreeramareddy C, Stanaway JD, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Sufiyan MB, Swaminathan S, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tadese F, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Teeple S, Tegegne TK, Temam Shifa G, Terkawi AS, Thomas B, Thomson AJ, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Tran BX, Troeger C, Ukwaja KN, Uthman O, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Vlassov VV, Weiderpass E, Weintraub R, Gebrehiwot SW, Westerman R, Williams HC, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Yano Y, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaki MES, Zegeye EA, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL, Vos T. Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study. JAMA Pediatr 2017; 171:573-592. [PMID: 28384795 PMCID: PMC5540012 DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2017.0250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 250] [Impact Index Per Article: 35.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2016] [Accepted: 01/16/2017] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
Importance Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. Objective To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion. Evidence Review Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss. Findings Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries. Conclusions and Relevance Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas Kassebaum
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Hmwe Hmwe Kyu
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Leo Zoeckler
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Katie Thomas
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Christine Pinho
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Zulfiqar A Bhutta
- Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Public Health Foundation of India, Gurgaon-122002, National Capital Region, India
| | - Alize Ferrari
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Simon I Hay
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
- Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Yohannes Kinfu
- Centre for Research & Action in Public Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australia
| | - Xiaofeng Liang
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Alan Lopez
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | | | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - George C Patton
- Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Joshua Salomon
- Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Benn Sartorius
- School of Nursing and Public Health, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South African Medical Research Council/University of KwaZulu-Natal Gastrointestinal Cancer Research Center, Durban, South Africa
| | - Roman Topor-Madry
- Institute of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Jagiellonian University Medical College, Kraków, Poland
| | - Stein Emil Vollset
- Center for Disease Burden, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Bergen, Norway
| | | | - Harvey A Whiteford
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Kaja Abbas
- Department of Population Health, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg
| | | | | | - Nadia Akseer
- The Hospital for Sick Children, Centre for Child Health, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Carl A T Antonio
- Department of Health Policy and Administration, University of Philippines-Manila, Manila, Philippines
| | - Johan Arnlov
- Department of Medical Services, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- Dalarna University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Al Artaman
- University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | | | | | - Ashish Awasthi
- Sanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical Sciences, Lucknow, India
| | | | - Umar Bacha
- School of Health Sciences, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | | | | | | | - Neeraj Bedi
- College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Adugnaw Berhane
- College of Health Sciences, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia
| | | | | | | | | | - Boris Bikbov
- Department of Nephrology Issues of Transplanted Kidney, V. I. Shumakov Federal Research Center of Transplantology and Artificial Organs, Moscow, Russia
| | - Cheryl Anne Boyce
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Alexandra Brazinova
- Faculty of Health Sciences and Social Work, Department of Public Health, Trnava University, Trnava, Slovakia
| | | | - Austin Carter
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Ferrán Catalá-López
- University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain
- Health Research Institute and CIBERSAM, Valencia, Spain
| | - Fiona J Charlson
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | | | | | - John Crump
- Departmentà Centre for International Health, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | | | | | - Amare Deribew
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Gabrielle deVeber
- The Hospital for Sick Children, Centre for Child Health, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Daniel Dicker
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Eric L Ding
- Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Manisha Dubey
- International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
| | | | - Holly E Erskine
- Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | | | - Andre Faro
- Federal University of Sergipe, Aracaju, Brazil
| | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Joao C Fernandes
- Center for Biotechnology and Fine Chemistry, Catholic University of Portugal, Porto, Portugal
| | - Daniel Obadare Fijabi
- Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts
| | | | - Thomas D Fleming
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Luisa Sorio Flor
- Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca/Fiocruz, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Kyle J Foreman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Maya S Fraser
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Joseph J Frostad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Nancy Fullman
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | - Katherine B Gibney
- The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Mahari Gidey Yihdego
- Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- Department of Public Health, Mizan-Tepi University, Ethiopia
| | | | | | | | - Elizabeth Glaser
- Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts
| | - Audra L Gold
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Ellen Goldberg
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | - Harish Chander Gugnani
- Department of Microbiology, Departments of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, St James School of Medicine, the Quarter, Anguilla
| | - Guohong Jiang
- School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China
| | - Rajeev Gupta
- Eternal Heart Care Centre and Research Institute, Jaipur, India
| | | | - Graeme J Hankey
- School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
| | | | | | - Masako Horino
- Nevada Division of Public and Behavioral Health, Carson City, Nevada
| | | | - Guoqing Hu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Kathryn H Jacobsen
- Department of Global and Community Health, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia
| | | | | | - Vivekanand Jha
- George Institute for Global Health, New Delhi, India
- University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Tariku Jibat
- Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands
- Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
| | - Catherine O Johnson
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Jost Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Ruprecht-Karlas University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Amir Kasaeian
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Ibrahim Khalil
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | - Christian Kieling
- Federal University of Rio Grande de Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil
- Hospital de Clinicas de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, Brazil
| | - Daniel Kim
- Department of Health Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts
| | - Niranjan Kissoon
- University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Luke D Knibbs
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Ai Koyanagi
- Research and Development Unit, Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Deu, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Kristopher J Krohn
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | - Rachel Kulikoff
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Hilton Y Lam
- Institute of Health Policy and Development Studies, National Institutes of Health, Manila, Philippines
| | - Heidi J Larson
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Anders Larsson
- Department of Medical Services, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | | | - Janni Leung
- School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Loon-Tzian Lo
- UnionHealth Associates LLC, St Louis, Missouri
- Alton Mental Health Center, Alton, Illinois
| | - Warren D Lo
- Department of Pediatrics, Department of Neurology, The Ohio State University, Columbus
| | | | - Paulo A Lotufo
- College of Health Sciences, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia
| | | | - Reza Malekzadeh
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | - Mohsen Mazidi
- Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Key State Laboratory of Molecular Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Peter A Meaney
- Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
| | | | | | | | | | | | - George A Mensah
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland
| | - Ted R Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland
| | - Charles Mock
- School of Medicine, School of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | - Lorenzo Monasta
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Trieste, Italy
| | - Ulrich Mueller
- Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
| | - Chie Nagata
- National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Aliya Naheed
- International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Grant Nguyen
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Quyen Le Nguyen
- Institute for Global Health, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Elaine Nsoesie
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - In-Hwan Oh
- Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | | | | | | | - Deepak Paudel
- UK Department for International Development, Lalitpur, Nepal
| | | | - Norberto Perico
- Istituto di Richerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Bergamo, Italy
| | - Max Petzold
- Health Metrics Unit, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | | | | | | | - Mostafa Qorbani
- School of Medicine, Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran
| | - Anwar Rafay
- Contect International Health Consultants, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
| | - Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mahfuzar Rahman
- Research and Evaluation Division, Building Resources Access Communities, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Usha Ram
- International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, India
| | - Zane Rankin
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | | | - Luca Ronfani
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health IRCCS Burlo Garofolo, Trieste, Italy
| | - Rajesh Sagar
- All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, India
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Ben Schöttker
- Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg, Germany
- Institute of Health Care and Social Sciences, FOM University, Essen, Germany
| | | | - James G Scott
- Centre for Clinical Research, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Sadaf G Sepanlou
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Amira Shaheen
- Department of Public Health, An-Najah University, Nablus, Palestine
| | | | - June She
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Rahman Shiri
- Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Work Organizations, Disability Program, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ivy Shiue
- Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle Upon Tyne, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Naris Silpakit
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Alison Smith
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | - Jeffrey D Stanaway
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Dan J Stein
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Caitlyn Steiner
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | - Karen M Tabb
- University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign
| | | | | | - Bineyam Taye
- Department of Biology, Colgate University, Hamilton, New York
| | - Stephanie Teeple
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | - Bernadette Thomas
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Alan J Thomson
- Adaptive Knowledge Management, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Ruoyan Tobe-Gai
- National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | | | - Christopher Troeger
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Elisabete Weiderpass
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Insitutet, Stockholm, Sweden
- Institute of Population-based Cancer Research, Cancer Registry of Norway, Oslo, Norway
| | | | | | - Ronny Westerman
- Federal Institute for Population Research, Wiesbaden, Germany
| | | | | | - Rachel Woodbrook
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| | - Yuichiro Yano
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, Illinois
| | | | - Seok-Jun Yoon
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle
| |
Collapse
|