Modeling the environmental suitability for Bacillus anthracis in the Qinghai Lake Basin, China

Bacillus anthracis is a gram-positive, rod-shaped and endospore-forming bacterium that causes anthrax, a deadly disease to livestock and, occasionally, to humans. The spores are extremely hardy and may remain viable for many years in soil. Previous studies have identified East Qinghai and neighbouring Gansu in northwest China as a potential source of anthrax infection. This study was carried out to identify conditions and areas in the Qinghai Lake basin that are environmentally suitable for B. anthracis distribution. Anthrax occurrence data from 2005-2016 and environmental variables were spatially modeled by a maximum entropy algorithm to evaluate the contribution of the variables to the distribution of B. anthracis. Principal Component Analysis and Variance Inflation Analysis were adopted to limit the number of environmental variables and minimize multicollinearity. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves. The three variables that contributed most to the suitability model for B. anthracis are a relatively high annual mean temperature of -2 to 0°C, (53%), soil type classified as; cambisols and kastanozems (35%), and a high human population density of 40 individuals per km2 (12%). The resulting distribution map identifies the permanently inhabited rim of the Qinghai Lake as highly suitable for B. anthracis. Our environmental suitability map and the identified variables provide the nature reserve managers and animal health authorities readily available information to devise both surveillance strategy and control strategy (administration of vaccine to livestock) in B. anthracis suitable regions to abate future epidemics.

Environmental suitability of Yersinia pestis and the spatial dynamics of plague in the Qinghai Lake region, China

Plague, a highly infectious disease caused by Yersinia pestis, has killed millions of people in history and is still active in the natural foci of the world nowadays. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of plague outbreaks in history is critically important, as it may help facilitate the prevention and control for potential future outbreaks. This study's objective was to estimate the effect of the topography, vegetation, climate, and other environmental factors on the Y. pestis ecological niche. A maximum entropy algorithm spatially modelled plague occurrence data from 2004-2018 and the environmental variables to evaluate the contribution of the variables to the distribution of Y. pestis. Our results found that the average minimum temperature in September (-8 °C to +5 °C) and the sheep population density (250 sheep per km2) were influential in characterising the niche. The rim of Qinghai Lake showed more favourable conditions for Y. pestis presence than other areas within the study area. Identifying various factors will assist any future modelling efforts. Our suitability map identifies hotspots and will help public health officials in resource allocation in their quest to abate future plague outbreaks.