Short communication: Predicting blood plasma non-esterified fatty acid and beta-hydroxybutyrate concentrations from cow milk-addressing systematic issues in modelling

Negative energy status in early lactation is linked to a variety of metabolic disorders, reduced fertility, and decreased milk production. To improve the energy status of cows by breeding and management, the identification of negative energy status is crucial. While biomarkers such as non-esterified fatty acid (NEFA) concentration and beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) in blood plasma could be used to identify a negative energy state, measuring them directly from blood is both invasive and expensive. In this work, we developed prediction equations for blood plasma NEFA and BHB levels based on mid-IR spectral measurements of milk. The models were fitted using partial least squares regression and evaluated using both cross-validation and independent-herd validation. A total of 3 183 spectral records from 606 lactations originating from three different herds were utilised. R2 values of 0.53 (RMSE = 0.206 mmol/l, RMSE of cross-validation (RMSECV) 0.217 mmol/l) for NEFA and 0.63 (RMSE = 0.326 mmol/l, RMSECV = 0.353 mmol/l) for BHB were obtained. Furthermore, relatively similar prediction accuracies were found for BHB (RMSE of prediction (RMSEP) 0.411 mmol/l and 0.422 mmol/l) and NEFA (RMSEP = 0.186 mmol/l and 0.221 mmol/l) when model training was done using two herds and validated on the third herd. The results from the model fits confirm that it is possible to build blood plasma BHB and NEFA models based on mid-IR spectra that are sufficiently accurate for practical use.

Estimating breeding values for feed efficiency in dairy cattle by regression on expected feed intake

The efficiency with which a dairy cow utilises feed for the various physiological and metabolic processes can be evaluated by metrics that contrast realised feed intake with expected feed intake. In this study, we presented a new metric - regression on expected feed intake (ReFI). This metric is based on the idea of regressing DM intake (DMI) on expected DMI using a random regression model, where energy requirement formulations are applied for the calculation of expected DMI covariables. We compared this new metric with the metrics residual feed intake (RFI) and genetic residual feed intake (gRFI), by applying them on 18 581 feed efficiency records from 654 primiparous Nordic Red dairy cows. We estimated variance components for the three metrics and their respective genetic correlations with intake and production traits. In addition, we examined the phenotypes of superior cows. With ReFI, we estimated for feed efficiency a higher genetic variation (4.7%) and heritability (0.23) compared to applying RFI or gRFI. The ReFI metric was genetically uncorrelated with DMI and negatively correlated within energy-corrected milk (ECM), whereas the RFI metric was genetically positively correlated with DMI and metabolic BW. The gRFI metric was genetically positively correlated with DMI and uncorrelated with energy sink traits. Overall, the estimated SE were large. The ReFI metric resulted in a different ranking of cows compared to those based on RFI or gRFI and was superior in selecting the most efficient animals. When the selection was based on ReFI breeding values, then the 10% most efficient cows produced 12.3% more ECM per unit metabolisable energy intake, whereas the corresponding values were only 4.3 or 5.9% when using RFI or gRFI breeding values, respectively. Based on ReFI, superior cows had also higher milk production, whereas based on RFI or gRFI milk production either decreased or was unaffected, respectively. The superiority of the ReFI metric in selecting efficient cows was due to a better modelling of the expected feed intake. The ReFI metric simplified modelling of feed utilisation efficiency in dairy cattle and resulted in breeding values that are equal to percentages of feed saved.

Animal board invited review: Genomic-based improvement of cattle in response to climate change

Climate change brings challenges to cattle production, such as the need to adapt to new climates and pressure to reduce greenhouse emissions (GHG). In general, the improvement of traits in current breeding goals is favourably correlated with the reduction of GHG. Current breeding goals and tools for increasing cattle production efficiency have reduced GHG. The same amount of production can be achieved by a much smaller number of animals. Genomic selection (GS) may offer a cost-effective way of using an efficient breeding approach, even in low- and middle-income countries. As climate change increases the intensity of heatwaves, adaptation to heat stress leads to lower efficiency of production and, thus, is unfavourable to the goal of reducing GHG. Furthermore, there is evidence that heat stress during cow pregnancy can have many generation-long lowering effects on milk production. Both adaptation and reduction of GHG are among the difficult-to-measure traits for which GS is more efficient and suitable than the traditional non-genomic breeding evaluation approach. Nevertheless, the commonly used within-breed selection may be insufficient to meet the new challenges; thus, cross-breeding based on selecting highly efficient and highly adaptive breeds may be needed. Genomic introgression offers an efficient approach for cross-breeding that is expected to provide high genetic progress with a low rate of inbreeding. However, well-adapted breeds may have a small number of animals, which is a source of concern from a genetic biodiversity point of view. Furthermore, low animal numbers also limit the efficiency of genomic introgression. Sustainable cattle production in countries that have already intensified production is likely to emphasise better health, reproduction, feed efficiency, heat stress and other adaptation traits instead of higher production. This may require the application of innovative technologies for phenotyping and further use of new big data techniques to extract information for breeding.

Genetic analyses of metabolic body weight, carcass weight and body conformation traits in Nordic dairy cattle

Improving feed efficiency in dairy cattle by animal breeding has started in the Nordic countries. One of the two traits included in the applied Saved feed index is called maintenance and it is based on the breeding values for metabolic BW (MBW). However, BW recording based on heart girth measurements is decreasing and recording based on scales is increasing only slowly, which may weaken the maintenance index in future. Therefore, the benefit of including correlated traits, like carcass weight and conformation traits, is of interest. In this study, we estimated genetic variation and genetic correlations for eight traits describing the energy requirement for maintenance in dairy cattle including: first, second and third parity MBW based on heart girth measurements, carcass weight (CARW) and predicted MBW (pMBW) based on predicted slaughter weight, and first parity conformation traits stature (ST), chest width (CW) and body depth (BD). The data consisted of 21329 records from Finnish Ayrshire and 9780 records from Holstein cows. Heritability estimates were 0.44, 0.53, 0.56, 0.52, 0.54, 0.60, 0.17 and 0.26 for MBW1, MBW2, MBW3, CARW, pMBW, ST, CW and BD, respectively. Estimated genetic correlations among MBW traits were strong (>0.95). Genetic correlations between slaughter traits (CARW and pMBW) and MBW traits were higher (from 0.77 to 0.90) than between conformation and MBW traits (from 0.47 to 0.70). Our results suggest that including information on carcass weight and body conformation as correlated traits into the maintenance index is beneficial when direct BW measurements are not available or are difficult or expensive to obtain.

Mid-infrared spectroscopic analysis of raw milk to predict the blood nonesterified fatty acid concentrations in dairy cows

In high-yielding dairy cattle, severe postpartum negative energy balance is often associated with metabolic and infectious disorders that negatively affect production, fertility, and welfare. Mobilization of adipose tissue associated with negative energy balance is reflected through an increased level of nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA) in the blood plasma. Earlier, identification of negative energy balance through detection of increased blood plasma NEFA concentration required laborious and stressful blood sampling. More recently, attempts have been made to predict blood NEFA concentration from milk samples. In this study, we aimed to develop and validate a model to predict blood plasma NEFA concentration using the milk mid-infrared (MIR) spectra that are routinely measured in the context of milk recording. To this end, blood plasma and milk samples were collected in wk 2, 3, and 20 postpartum for 192 lactations in 3 herds. The blood plasma samples were taken in the morning, and representative milk samples were collected during the morning and evening milk sessions on the same day. To predict plasma NEFA concentration from the milk MIR spectra, partial least squares regression models were trained on part of the observations from the first herd. The models were then thoroughly validated on all other observations of the first herd and on the observations of the 2 independent herds to explore their robustness and wide applicability. The final model could accurately predict blood plasma NEFA concentrations <0.6 mmol/L with a root mean square error of prediction of <0.143 mmol/L. However, for blood plasma with >1.2 mmol/L NEFA, the model clearly underestimated the true level. Additionally, we found that morning blood plasma NEFA levels were predicted with significantly higher accuracy using MIR spectra of evening milk samples compared with MIR spectra of morning samples, with root mean square error of prediction values of, respectively, 0.182 and 0.197 mmol/L, and R² values of 0.613 and 0.502. These results suggest a time delay between variations in blood plasma NEFA and related milk biomarkers. Based on the MIR spectra of evening milk samples, cows at risk for negative energy status, indicated by detrimental morning blood plasma NEFA levels (>0.6 mmol/L), could be identified with a sensitivity and specificity of, respectively, 0.831 and 0.800. As this model can be applied to millions of historical and future milk MIR spectra, it opens an opportunity for regular metabolic screening and improved resilience phenotyping.

Genetic correlations between energy status indicator traits and female fertility in primiparous Nordic Red Dairy cattle

Inclusion of feed efficiency traits into the dairy cattle breeding programmes will require considering early lactation energy status to avoid deterioration in health and fertility of dairy cows. In this regard, energy status indicator (ESI) traits, for example, blood metabolites or milk fatty acids (FAs), are of interest. These indicators can be predicted from routine milk samples by mid-IR reflectance spectroscopy (MIR). In this study, we estimated genetic variation in ESI traits and their genetic correlation with female fertility in early lactation. The data consisted of 37 424 primiparous Nordic Red Dairy cows with milk test-day records between 8 and 91 days in milk (DIM). Routine test-day milk samples were analysed by MIR using previously developed calibration equations for blood plasma non-esterified FA (NEFA), milk FAs, milk beta-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) and milk acetone concentrations. Six ESI traits were considered and included: plasma NEFA concentration (mmol/l) either predicted by multiple linear regression including DIM, milk fat to protein ratio (FPR) and FAs C10:0, C14:0, C18:1 cis-9, C14:0 * C18:1 cis-9 (NEFAFA) or directly from milk MIR spectra (NEFAMIR), C18:1 cis-9 (g/100 ml milk), FPR, BHB (mmol/l milk) and acetone (mmol/l milk). The interval from calving to first insemination (ICF) was considered as the fertility trait. Data were analysed using linear mixed models. Heritability estimates varied during the first three lactation months from 0.13 to 0.19, 0.10 to 0.17, 0.09 to 0.14, 0.07 to 0.10, 0.13 to 0.17 and 0.13 to 0.18 for NEFAMIR, NEFAFA, C18:1 cis-9, FPR, milk BHB and acetone, respectively. Genetic correlations between all ESI traits and ICF were from 0.18 to 0.40 in the first lactation period (8 to 35 DIM), in general somewhat lower (0.03 to 0.43) in the second period (36 to 63 DIM) and decreased clearly (-0.02 to 0.19) in the third period (64 to 91 DIM). Our results indicate that genetic variation in energy status of cows in early lactation can be determined using MIR-predicted indicators. In addition, the markedly lower genetic correlation between ESI traits and fertility in the third lactation month indicated that energy status should be determined from the first test-day milk samples during the first 2 months of lactation.

Body and milk traits as indicators of dairy cow energy status in early lactation

The inclusion of feed intake and efficiency traits in dairy cow breeding goals can lead to increased risk of metabolic stress. An easy and inexpensive way to monitor postpartum energy status (ES) of cows is therefore needed. Cows' ES can be estimated by calculating the energy balance from energy intake and output and predicted by indicator traits such as change in body weight (ΔBW), change in body condition score (ΔBCS), milk fat:protein ratio (FPR), or milk fatty acid (FA) composition. In this study, we used blood plasma nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA) concentration as a biomarker for ES. We determined associations between NEFA concentration and ES indicators and evaluated the usefulness of body and milk traits alone, or together, in predicting ES of the cow. Data were collected from 2 research herds during 2013 to 2016 and included 137 Nordic Red dairy cows, all of which had a first lactation and 59 of which also had a second lactation. The data included daily body weight, milk yield, and feed intake and monthly BCS. Plasma samples for NEFA were collected twice in lactation wk 2 and 3 and once in wk 20. Milk samples for analysis of fat, protein, lactose, and FA concentrations were taken on the blood sampling days. Plasma NEFA concentration was higher in lactation wk 2 and 3 than in wk 20 (0.56 ± 0.30, 0.43 ± 0.22, and 0.13 ± 0.06 mmol/L, respectively; all means ± standard deviation). Among individual indicators, C18:1 cis-9 and the sum of C18:1 in milk had the highest correlations (r = 0.73) with NEFA. Seven multiple linear regression models for NEFA prediction were developed using stepwise selection. Of the models that included milk traits (other than milk FA) as well as body traits, the best fit was achieved by a model with milk yield, FPR, ΔBW, ΔBCS, FPR × ΔBW, and days in milk. The model resulted in a cross-validation coefficient of determination (R²cv) of 0.51 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.196 mmol/L. When only milk FA concentrations were considered in the model, NEFA prediction was more accurate using measurements from evening milk than from morning milk (R²cv = 0.61 vs. 0.53). The best model with milk traits contained FPR, C10:0, C14:0, C18:1 cis-9, C18:1 cis-9 × C14:0, and days in milk (R²cv = 0.62; RMSE = 0.177 mmol/L). The most advanced model using both milk and body traits gave a slightly better fit than the model with only milk traits (R²cv = 0.63; RMSE = 0.176 mmol/L). Our findings indicate that ES of cows in early lactation can be monitored with moderately high accuracy by routine milk measurements.

Reliability of breeding values for feed intake and feed efficiency traits in dairy cattle: When dry matter intake recordings are sparse under different scenarios

Currently, routine recordings of dry matter intake (DMI) in commercial herds are practically nonexistent. Recording DMI from commercial herds is a prerequisite for the inclusion of feed efficiency (FE) traits in dairy cattle breeding goals. To develop future on-farm phenotyping strategies, recording strategies that are low cost and less demanding logistically and that give relatively accurate estimates of the animal's genetic merit are therefore needed. The objectives of this study were (1) to estimate genetic parameters for daily DMI and FE traits and use the estimated parameters to simulate daily DMI phenotypes under different DMI recording scenarios (SCN) and (2) to use the simulated data to estimate for different scenarios the associated reliability of estimated breeding value and accuracies of genomic prediction for varying sizes of reference populations. Five on-farm daily DMI recording scenarios were simulated: once weekly (SCN1), once monthly (SCN2), every 2 mo (SCN3), every 3 mo (SCN4), and every 4 mo (SCN5). To estimate reliability of estimated breeding values, DMI and FE observations and true breeding values were simulated based on variance components estimated for daily observations of Nordic Red cows. To emulate realistic on-farm recording, 5 data set replicates, each with 36,037 DMI and FE records, were simulated for real pedigree and data structure of 789 Holstein cows. Observations for the 5 DMI recording scenarios were generated by discarding data in a step-wise manner from the full simulated data per the scenario's definitions. For each of these scenarios, reliabilities were calculated as correlation between the true and estimated breeding values. Variance components and genetic parameters were estimated for daily DMI, residual feed intake (RFI), and energy conversion efficiency (ECE) fitting the random regression model. Data for variance components were from 227 primiparous Nordic Red dairy cows covering 8 to 280 d in milk. Lactation-wise heritability for DMI, RFI, and ECE was 0.33, 0.12, and 0.32, respectively, and daily heritability estimates during lactation ranged from 0.18 to 0.45, 0.08 to 0.32, and 0.08 to 0.45 for DMI, RFI, and ECE, respectively. Genetic correlations for DMI between different stages of lactation ranged from -0.50 to 0.99. The comparison of different on-farm DMI recording scenarios indicated that adopting a less-frequent recording scenario (SCN3) gave a similar level of accuracy as SCN1 when 17 more daughters are recorded per sire over the 46 needed for SCN1. Such a strategy is less demanding logistically and is low cost because fewer observations need to be collected per animal. The accuracy of genomic predictions associated with the 5 recording scenarios indicated that setting up a relatively larger reference population and adopting a less-frequent DMI sampling scenario (e.g., SCN3) is promising. When the same reference population size was considered, the genomic prediction accuracy of SCN3 was only 5.0 to 7.0 percentage points lower than that for the most expensive DMI recording strategy (SCN1). We concluded that DMI recording strategies that are sparse in terms of records per cow but with slightly more cows recorded per sire are advantageous both in genomic selection and in traditional progeny testing schemes when accuracy, logistics, and cost implications are considered.