Using symptom-based case predictions to identify host genetic factors that contribute to COVID-19 susceptibility

Epidemiological and genetic studies on COVID-19 are currently hindered by inconsistent and limited testing policies to confirm SARS-CoV-2 infection. Recently, it was shown that it is possible to predict COVID-19 cases using cross-sectional self-reported disease-related symptoms. Here, we demonstrate that this COVID-19 prediction model has reasonable and consistent performance across multiple independent cohorts and that our attempt to improve upon this model did not result in improved predictions. Using the existing COVID-19 prediction model, we then conducted a GWAS on the predicted phenotype using a total of 1,865 predicted cases and 29,174 controls. While we did not find any common, large-effect variants that reached genome-wide significance, we do observe suggestive genetic associations at two SNPs (rs11844522, p = 1.9x10-7; rs5798227, p = 2.2x10-7). Explorative analyses furthermore suggest that genetic variants associated with other viral infectious diseases do not overlap with COVID-19 susceptibility and that severity of COVID-19 may have a different genetic architecture compared to COVID-19 susceptibility. This study represents a first effort that uses a symptom-based predicted phenotype as a proxy for COVID-19 in our pursuit of understanding the genetic susceptibility of the disease. We conclude that the inclusion of symptom-based predicted cases could be a useful strategy in a scenario of limited testing, either during the current COVID-19 pandemic or any future viral outbreak.

Insights into genetic factors contributing to variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity

Variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity between individuals is partly due to genetic factors. Here, we applied colocalization to compare summary statistics for 16 GWASs from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative to investigate similarities and differences in their genetic signals. We identified 9 loci associated with susceptibility (one with two independent GWAS signals; one with an ethnicity-specific signal), 14 associated with severity (one with two independent GWAS signals; two with ethnicity-specific signals) and one harboring two discrepant GWAS signals (one for susceptibility; one for severity). Utilizing colocalization we also identified 45 GTEx tissues that had eQTL(s) for 18 genes strongly associated with GWAS signals in eleven loci (1-4 genes per locus). Some of these genes showed tissue-specific altered expression and others showed altered expression in up to 41 different tissue types. Our study provides insights into the complex molecular mechanisms underlying inherited predispositions to COVID-19-disease phenotypes.