Quantifying the Benefits of Imputation over QSAR Methods in Toxicology Data Modeling

Imputation machine learning (ML) surpasses traditional approaches in modeling toxicity data. The method was tested on an open-source data set comprising approximately 2500 ingredients with limited in vitro and in vivo data obtained from the OECD QSAR Toolbox. By leveraging the relationships between different toxicological end points, imputation extracts more valuable information from each data point compared to well-established single end point methods, such as ML-based Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) approaches, providing a final improvement of up to around 0.2 in the coefficient of determination. A significant aspect of this methodology is its resilience to the inclusion of extraneous chemical or experimental data. While additional data typically introduces a considerable level of noise and can hinder performance of single end point QSAR modeling, imputation models remain unaffected. This implies a reduction in the need for laborious manual preprocessing tasks such as feature selection, thereby making data preparation for ML analysis more efficient. This successful test, conducted on open-source data, validates the efficacy of imputation approaches in toxicity data analysis. This work opens the way for applying similar methods to other types of sparse toxicological data matrices, and so we discuss the development of regulatory authority guidelines to accept imputation models, a key aspect for the wider adoption of these methods.

An Open Drug Discovery Competition: Experimental Validation of Predictive Models in a Series of Novel Antimalarials

The Open Source Malaria (OSM) consortium is developing compounds that kill the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, by targeting PfATP4, an essential ion pump on the parasite surface. The structure of PfATP4 has not been determined. Here, we describe a public competition created to develop a predictive model for the identification of PfATP4 inhibitors, thereby reducing project costs associated with the synthesis of inactive compounds. Competition participants could see all entries as they were submitted. In the final round, featuring private sector entrants specializing in machine learning methods, the best-performing models were used to predict novel inhibitors, of which several were synthesized and evaluated against the parasite. Half possessed biological activity, with one featuring a motif that the human chemists familiar with this series would have dismissed as "ill-advised". Since all data and participant interactions remain in the public domain, this research project "lives" and may be improved by others.

Hyperparameter-free Regularization by Sampling from an Infinite Space of Neural Networks

Stochastic activation functions, where the output of an activation function is a hyper-parameter-free random function of the inputs, generalize the concept of dropout to sampling from an infinitely large space of related networks. Stochastic activation functions provide intrinsic regularization and sparsification of artificial neural networks, along with cheap and accurate estimates of the uncertainty in the predictions from a network. Examples are presented against standard benchmarking datasets.

Accelerating the Design of Automotive Catalyst Products Using Machine Learning

The design of catalyst products to reduce harmful emissions is currently an intensive process of expert-driven discovery, taking several years to develop a product. Machine learning can accelerate this timescale, leveraging historic experimental data from related products to guide which new formulations and experiments will enable a project to most directly reach its targets. We used machine learning to accurately model 16 key performance targets for catalyst products, enabling detailed understanding of the factors governing catalyst performance and realistic suggestions of future experiments to rapidly develop more effective products. The proposed formulations are currently undergoing experimental validation.

Practical Applications of Deep Learning To Impute Heterogeneous Drug Discovery Data

Contemporary deep learning approaches still struggle to bring a useful improvement in the field of drug discovery because of the challenges of sparse, noisy, and heterogeneous data that are typically encountered in this context. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning method, Alchemite, to impute data from drug discovery projects, including multitarget biochemical activities, phenotypic activities in cell-based assays, and a variety of absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) endpoints. The resulting model gives excellent predictions for activity and ADME endpoints, offering an average increase in R² of 0.22 versus quantitative structure-activity relationship methods. The model accuracy is robust to combining data across uncorrelated endpoints and projects with different chemical spaces, enabling a single model to be trained for all compounds and endpoints. We demonstrate improvements in accuracy on the latest chemistry and data when updating models with new data as an ongoing medicinal chemistry project progresses.

Imputation of Assay Bioactivity Data Using Deep Learning

We describe a novel deep learning neural network method and its application to impute assay pIC₅₀ values. Unlike conventional machine learning approaches, this method is trained on sparse bioactivity data as input, typical of that found in public and commercial databases, enabling it to learn directly from correlations between activities measured in different assays. In two case studies on public domain data sets we show that the neural network method outperforms traditional quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models and other leading approaches. Furthermore, by focusing on only the most confident predictions the accuracy is increased to R² > 0.9 using our method, as compared to R² = 0.44 when reporting all predictions.