Estimating sectoral COVID-19 economic losses in the Philippines using nighttime light and electricity consumption data

Introduction

Economic loss estimation is critical for policymakers to craft policies that balance economic and health concerns during pandemic emergencies. However, this task is time-consuming and resource-intensive, posing challenges during emergencies.

Method

To address this, we proposed using electricity consumption (EC) and nighttime lights (NTL) datasets to estimate the total, commercial, and industrial economic losses from COVID-19 lockdowns in the Philippines. Regression models were employed to establish the relationship of GDP with EC and NTL. Then, models using basic statistics and weather data were developed to estimate the counterfactual EC and NTL, from which counterfactual GDP was derived. The difference between the actual and the counterfactual GDP from 2020 to 2021 yielded economic loss.

Results

This paper highlights three findings. First, the regression model results established that models based on EC (adj-R2 ≥ 0.978) were better at explaining GDP than models using NTL (adj-R2 ≥ 0.663); however, combining both EC and NTL improved the prediction (adj-R2 ≥ 0.979). Second, counterfactual EC and NTL could be estimated using models based on statistics and weather data explaining more than 81% of the pre-pandemic values. Last, the estimated total loss amounted to 2.9 trillion PhP in 2020 and 3.2 trillion PhP in 2021. More than two-thirds of the losses were in the commercial sector as it responded to both policies and the COVID-19 case surge. In contrast, the industrial sector was affected primarily by the lockdown implementation.

Discussion

This method allowed monitoring of economic losses resulting from long-term and large-scale hazards such as the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings can serve as empirical evidence for advocating targeted strategies that balance public health and the economy during pandemic scenarios.

Impact of retrofitting work on vulnerability reduction of local buildings in Kabul, Afghanistan

Rapid urbanisation of Afghan cities without proper construction regulation has exposed their population to a high risk of damage from disasters such as earthquakes. With the growing construction of local non-engineered buildings and an existing level of hazard of 0.8 g, a high risk of casualties and building damage threatens Kabul in the event of a disaster. This study reports and evaluates a recent retrofitting project in Kabul City by 'Project for City Resilience', carried out under the supervision of the United Nation Human Settlements Program (UN-Habitat) for 48 retrofitted sun-dried clay brick masonry buildings in Kabul. The project was executed by local masons and welders who were trained as a part of the project, and the main tasks included installation of an additional steel frame, additional reinforced concrete foundation ring, ceiling replacement and wall strengthening (via mesh and plaster). After a visual assessment of retrofitted buildings considering the original retrofitting design and actual work done, a vulnerability index for retrofitted buildings was developed based on a behaviour modifier factor, which was assigned to each retrofitting activity using a combination of values and a proportion of scores for each retrofitting activity. The results indicate that training of local masons and welders to undertake retrofitting activities could decrease the damage ratio by 15% - 20% for peak ground acceleration values of 0.3 g and higher. The methods mentioned in this study can be used to make existing sun-dried clay brick masonry buildings sufficiently resistant to earthquakes of moderate-to-severe intensity.

Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Bantul regency, Indonesia

Bantul regency in 2006 had experienced considerable earthquake and suffered many casualties. The factors such as high population density and lack of seismic design of residential buildings in Bantul besides its location in a high seismic region have increased its vulnerability to earthquake disasters that can lead to a widespread economic losses and casualties. This research aims to capture earthquake risk in Bantul towards economic losses and casualties by using risk curve. Risk curve is a combination of several sources from literatures containing hazard curve and vulnerability curve together with exposure. The result showed that the expected economic loss in 50 years for residential building is $647.22 million; however, the highest value of economic losses shows the value up to $7600m which occurs in earthquake of 7.15 M_W scale. The same worst-case scenario caused the casualties up to 49 000 people at night-time and 15 000 people at daytime. The result established that confined masonry building type conduces the highest value of economic losses and timber frame building shows the highest vulnerability to the earthquake disaster than other building types. Furthermore, in order to reduce the risk, we applied the hypothetical policy to build a simple earthquake-resistant house called Simple Instant Healthy House. The result indicates that this mitigation policy can effectively reduce both economic losses and casualties.

Promoting seismic retrofit implementation through "nudge": using warranty as a driver

This article proposes a new type of warranty policy that applies the "nudge" concept developed by Thaler and Sunstein to encourage homeowners in Japan to implement seismic retrofitting. Homeowner adaptation to natural disasters through loss reduction measures is known to be inadequate. To encourage proactive risk management, the "nudge" approach capitalizes on how choice architecture can influence human decision-making tendencies. For example, people tend to place more value on a warranty for consumer goods than on actuarial value. This article proposes a "warranty for seismic retrofitting" as a "nudge" policy that gives homeowners the incentive to adopt loss reduction measures. Under such a contract, the government guarantees all repair costs in the event of earthquake damage to the house if the homeowner implements seismic retrofitting. To estimate the degree to which a warranty will increase the perceived value of seismic retrofitting, we use field survey data from 1,200 homeowners. Our results show that a warranty increases the perceived value of seismic retrofitting by an average of 33%, and an approximate cost-benefit analysis indicates that such a warranty can be more economically efficient than an ex ante subsidy. Furthermore, we address the failure of the standard expected utility model to explain homeowners' decisions based on warranty evaluation, and explore the significant influence of ambiguity aversion on the efficacy of seismic retrofitting and nonanalytical factors such as feelings or trust.

New actions of parathyroid hormone through its degradation

Parathyroid hormone degradation is intimately connected with its action. By the action of the unique renal neutral cytosolic PTH ase, PTH is split into 1-34 and 35-84 fragments, and further into 35-70 and 71-84 fragments. Amino-terminal 1-34 peptide was found to participate in the autoregulation of PTH secretion, suppressing the intact PTH secretion both in vivo in humans and in vitro in the dispersed bovine parathyroid cells. C-terminal fragment 35-84 and N-terminal fragment 1-34 both suppress the alkaline phosphatase production by ROS 17/2.8 cells to a lesser extent than the intact PTH 1-84, and the sum of the effects of the two fragments approximately equaled that of the intact hormone. Fragments 35-70 and 71-84 were devoid of such activity. Intracellular free calcium of human vascular endothelial cells was raised by intact 1-84, lowered on the contrary by C-terminal 35-84 fragment, but fragments 1-34, 35-70 and 71-84 had no effect. Fragments generated by the actions, supporting the physiological significance of PTH degradation by its target cells.

Calcium treatment of essential hypertension in elderly patients evaluated by 24 H monitoring

We used 24-h monitoring of blood pressure (BP) to evaluate the effect of calcium supplementation on mild to moderate essential hypertension in elderly hospitalized patients for the first time in a controlled crossover study. The mean systolic and diastolic BP over a period of 24 h declined by 13.6 mm Hg (P less than .005) and 5.0 mm Hg (P less than .05) respectively in patients whose diet was supplemented with 1 g of elemental calcium in the form of oystershell electrolysate (AA calcium). Serum ionized calcium and urinary calcium and sodium excretion increased (serum Ca2+ 0.16 +/- 0.03 mEq/L, P less than .05; FECa 0.5 +/- 0.2%, P less than .05; FENa 0.4 +/- 0.1%, P less than .05) and plasma parathyroid hormone was suppressed (12.2 +/- 2.3 pg/mL, P less than .005). These data suggest that supplementation of dietary calcium may contribute to a reduction of BP in elderly patients with essential hypertension.

Direct inhibitory effect of amino-terminal parathyroid hormone fragment [PTH(1-34)] on PTH secretion from bovine parathyroid primary cultured cells in vitro

We have examined the possibility of direct inhibitory effect of PTH(1-34) on PTH secretion in bovine parathyroid cells. As low as 10(-12) M PTH(1-34) completely inhibited low calcium (0.5 mM Ca2+)-stimulated PTH secretion by these cells. In the presence of 1.25 mM Ca2+, 10(-12) M PTH(1-34) inhibited PTH secretion by about 14.3% of the basal value, while 10(-11) M or higher concentration of PTH(1-34) showed potent inhibitory effects equivalent to the inhibitory action of high calcium concentration (2.5 mM Ca2+) on PTH secretion. At 2.5 mM Ca2+, as much as 10(-9) M PTH(1-34) failed to inhibit PTH secretion further. These results suggest that PTH(1-34) might directly, not via calcium concentration, inhibit PTH secretion by parathyroid cells and that a cooperative mechanism could exist between calcium and PTH(1-34) to inhibit PTH secretion.

Parathyroid hormone degradation by chymotrypsin-like endopeptidase in the clonal osteogenic UMR-106 cell

Parathyroid hormone (PTH) -degrading activity was studied using osteoblast-like UMR-106 cells. PTH-degrading activity was assessed by the amount of PTH fragments produced in the medium after exposure of intact human PTH-(1-84) to UMR-106 cells. PTH immunoreactivity recovered in trichloroacetic acid-soluble products of the medium and in fractions eluted from reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) was measured by radioimmunoassay using an antibody specific for the mid-region and C-terminus of PTH. In this study, intact UMR-106 cells but not extracellular enzymes cleaved human PTH(1-84) into fragments which were released into the medium (in a time- and temperature-dependent fashion). HPLC analysis of the PTH fragments depicted three immunoreactive peaks (peaks 1, 2 and 3) besides intact PTH, indicating a limited PTH-hydrolyzing activity of the cells. Furthermore, a 1000-fold molar excess of either hPTH-(3-34) or [Nle8,Nle18,Tyr34]hPTH-(3-34)amide inhibited PTH-degrading activity by 63% and 80% of control, respectively, whereas neither calcitonin, vasopressin nor growth hormone suppressed it. Additionally, HPLC analysis of the samples treated with [Nle8,Nle18,Tyr34]hPTH-(3-34)amide showed a reduction of the three peaks, suggesting an involvement of PTH receptor in the production of PTH fragments. This PTH-degrading activity was strongly inhibited by phenylmethylsulfonyl fluoride and chymostatin, but not by soybean trypsin inhibitor, elastatinal or inhibitors of cysteine, aspartic or metalloproteinases, indicating that it is due to a seryl chymotrypsin-like endopeptidase. Chymotrypsin-like activity seems to be solely responsible for PTH-degrading activity in intact UMR-106 cells, since all three PTH fragments were predominantly suppressed in the presence of chymostatin. Further analysis of chymotrypsin-digested products of hPTH-(1-84) eluted from HPLC exhibited five fragments detected by ultraviolet absorbance at 210 nm, three of which were measurable by PTH radioimmunoassay, each corresponding to the three PTH fragments produced by UMR-106 cells. To explore the cleavage sites of PTH further, amino acid analysis of chymotrypsin-cleaved products was performed. The results strongly support the view that the chymotrypsin-like enzyme in UMR-106 cells cleaved the hormone between residues 23-24 and 34-35, to produce, at least, hPTH-(24-84) and -(35-84). Our present study indicates that a chymotrypsin-like endopeptidase is solely responsible for limited hydrolysis of PTH by intact UMR-106 cells.

Parathyroid hormone degradation by chymotrypsin-like endopeptidase in the opossum kidney cell

Cathepsin-D has been previously reported to cleave intact PTH into PTH-(1-34) and -(35-84) in membranous fractions of rat and bovine kidney. Whether PTH degradation occurs by intact kidney cells, however, has not been examined in detail. We have, therefore, examined this possibility using an opossum kidney (OK) cell line which possesses the characteristics of proximal renal tubules and responds to PTH. PTH radioimmunoreactivity recovered in trichloroacetic acid-soluble products and in fractions eluted from reverse phase HPLC was measured using an antibody directed to the midregion and C-terminus of PTH. In this study, intact OK cells, but not extracellular enzymes, cleaved human (h) PTH-(1-84) into three discrete fragments which were released into the medium in a time- and temperature-dependent fashion. Half-maximal velocity of PTH-degrading activity (PTHDA) was observed at 9 nM hPTH-(1-84). A 1000-fold molar excess of PTH antagonists [hPTH-(3-34) and [Tyr34]hPTH-(7-34)amide] markedly inhibited PTHDA, whereas ACTH, glucagon, or big gastrin did not suppress it, suggesting an involvement of the PTH receptor in PTHDA. This PTHDA was strongly inhibited by phenylmethylsulfonylfluoride and chymostatin, but not by trypsin inhibitor, elastatinal, or inhibitors of aspartic, cysteine, or metalloproteinases, suggesting that it is due to a seryl chymotrypsin-like endopeptidase. Analysis of chymotrypsin-digested products of hPTH-(1-84) eluted from HPLC exhibited five fragments detected by UV absorbance (210 nm), three of which were measurable by PTH RIA, and each corresponded to the three PTH fragments produced by OK cells. All three fragments were predominantly suppressed in the presence of chymostatin, suggesting that chymotrypsin-like activity is solely responsible for PTHDA in intact OK cells. To further explore the cleavage sites of PTH by chymotrypsin, amino acid analysis of chymotrypsin-cleaved products was performed. The results strongly support the conclusion that a chymotrypsin-like enzyme in OK cells cleaved the hormone between residues 23-24, and 34-35 to produce, at least, hPTH-(24-84) and -(35-84). Lysosomal blockers (chloroquine, ammonium chloride, or monensin) did not affect this PTHDA. Our present study indicates that chymotrypsin-like endopeptidase, but not other endopeptidase or lysosomal enzymes, is responsible for the limited hydrolysis of PTH by intact OK cells.

Possible involvement of protein kinase C in parathyroid hormone degradation by osteoblast-like rat osteosarcoma cell line UMR106

The effects of 12-O-tetraadecanoyl phorbol-13-acetate (TPA), 1-oleoyl-2-acetyl-glycerol (OAG), and 1-(5-isoquinolinesulfonyl)-2-methylpiperazine (H-7) on the parathyroid hormone (PTH) degrading activity in a PTH-responsive osteoblast-like rat osteosarcoma cell line UMR106 were investigated to assess the role of Ca2+-activated. Phospholipid dependent protein kinase (protein kinase C) on the degradation of hormones. TPA and OAG, activators of protein kinase C, enhanced the PTH degrading activity dose-dependently, whereas H-7, an inhibitor of protein kinase C, exhibited a dose-dependent inhibition on this activity. These data suggest that protein kinase C activation may enhance PTH degrading activity by UMR106 cells as a possible regulator of PTH degradation.

Degrading activity for human parathyroid hormone [PTH-(1-84)] in rat osteoblast-like osteosarcoma cell line UMR106

The degrading activity for human parathyroid hormone [hPTH-(1-84)] was studied in a rat osteoblast-like osteosarcoma cell line UMR106. At 37 C,UMR106 cells degraded hPTH-(1-84) into fragments in a time-dependent manner, which was shown by a radioimmunoassay with the use of antibody recognizing the C-terminal and middle regions of PTH molecule, whereas the degradation was completely suppressed at 4 C and failed to occur in the absence of the cells. The Lineweaver-Burk plot of this degrading activity at 37 C showed a fairly good linearity and gave a Km value of 5.1 X 10(-7) M. Reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis of immunoreactive PTH fragments in the medium disclosed two peaks aside from intact PTH, indicating a limited PTH-hydrolyzing activity of UMR106 cells cleaving the molecule between at least two separate positions. This study suggests the possible involvement of osteoblasts on the metabolism of intact PTH.

Xanthogranuloma of the rectum

A 46-year-old man with a suspected malignant submucosal tumor received a transabdominoperineal rectal amputation. The histologic diagnosis was xanthogranuloma. The differentiation of xanthogranuloma from malignant fibrous histiocytoma and other histiocytic tumors is difficult in the preoperative stage. Malignant fibrous histiocytoma can be diagnosed histologically by the presence of pleomorphism, mitotic activity, hyperchromatism, and a storiform pattern of cell arrangement. Moreover, some xanthogranulomas are also thought to have malignant potentiality and surgical resection is regarded as the preferred treatment. As for prognosis, the patient has lived for three years after the operation but further follow-up is thought to be necessary.