Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Clinical protocols for adults with acute abdominal pain in Australian emergency departments

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Patients with acute abdominal pain are a common presentation in hospital emergency departments; however, international studies have demonstrated that hospitals often lack clinical protocols to guide care. This study aimed to investigate whether Australian hospital emergency departments have acute abdominal pain clinical protocols, identify hospital-level predictors of the presence of these clinical protocols, and assess the quality of protocols.

METHODS

A survey was sent to all Australian hospitals with emergency departments, collecting data on hospital characteristics and the presence of acute abdominal pain clinical protocols. Participating hospitals (n = 73, 26% response rate) were also asked to provide a copy of these protocols. The quality of these protocols was assessed using Appraisal of Guidelines for REsearch & Evaluation (AGREE) II.

RESULTS

Slightly more than half (n = 40) of the hospitals surveyed had acute abdominal pain clinical protocols, while 16 had a general pain protocol. In binomial logistic regression, two independent variables were related to the presence of a protocol, geographic region (P = 0.008) and advanced practice nurses/nurse practitioners' presence on staff (P = 0.024). The mean score for the overall quality assessment of these protocols was 4.2 on a seven-point Likert scale; in terms of the six domains of quality, "Clarity of presentation" and "Scope and purpose" were highest. The overall quality of clinical protocols increased with remoteness, χ² (3) = 8.341, P = 0.039, and was lower in hospitals with medical staff on site (U = 2.5, P = 0.007).

CONCLUSION

There is a documented standard for pain management of acute abdominal pain in about three quarters of participating Australian emergency departments. The use and quality of clinical protocols is influenced by the physical location of hospitals and staff and skill mix of clinicians.

Are we making good use of our public resources? The false-positive rate of screening by fundus photography for diabetic macular oedema

INTRODUCTION

A large proportion of patients diagnosed with diabetic maculopathy using fundus photography and hence referred to specialist clinics following the current screening guidelines adopted in Hong Kong and United Kingdom are found to be false-positive, implying that they did not have macular oedema. This study aimed to evaluate the false-positive rate of diabetic maculopathy screening using the objective optical coherence tomography scan.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional observational study. Consecutive diabetic patients from the Hong Kong West Cluster Diabetic Retinopathy Screening Programme with fundus photographs graded R1M1 were recruited between October 2011 and June 2013. Spectral-domain optical coherence tomography imaging was performed. Central macular thickness of ≥300 μm and/or the presence of optical coherence tomography signs of diabetic macular oedema were used to define the presence of diabetic macular oedema. Patients with conditions other than diabetes that might affect macular thickness were excluded. The mean central macular thickness in various subgroups of R1M1 patients was calculated and the proportion of subjects with central macular thickness of ≥300 μm was used to assess the false-positive rate of this screening strategy.

RESULTS

A total of 491 patients were recruited during the study period. Of the 352 who were eligible for analysis, 44.0%, 17.0%, and 38.9% were graded as M1 due to the presence of foveal 'haemorrhages', 'exudates', or 'haemorrhages and exudates', respectively. The mean (±standard deviation) central macular thickness was 265.1±55.4 μm. Only 13.4% (95% confidence interval, 9.8%-17.0%) of eyes had a central macular thickness of ≥300 μm, and 42.9% (95% confidence interval, 37.7%-48.1%) of eyes had at least one optical coherence tomography sign of diabetic macular oedema. For patients with retinal haemorrhages only, 9.0% (95% confidence interval, 4.5%-13.5%) had a central macular thickness of ≥300 μm; 23.2% (95% confidence interval, 16.6%-29.9%) had at least one optical coherence tomography sign of diabetic macular oedema. The false-positive rate of the current screening strategy for diabetic macular oedema was 86.6%.

CONCLUSION

The high false-positive rate of the current diabetic macular oedema screening adopted by the United Kingdom and Hong Kong may lead to unnecessary psychological stress for patients and place a financial burden on the health care system. A better way of screening is urgently needed. Performing additional spectral-domain optical coherence tomography scans on selected patients fulfils this need.

Improving the economic value of photographic screening for optical coherence tomography-detectable macular oedema: a prospective, multicentre, UK study

OBJECTIVES

To determine the best photographic surrogate markers for detecting sight-threatening macular oedema (MO) in people with diabetes attending UK national screening programmes.

DESIGN

A multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study of 3170 patients with photographic signs of diabetic retinopathy visible within the macular region [exudates within two disc diameters, microaneurysms/dot haemorrhages (M/DHs) and blot haemorrhages (BHs)] who were recruited from seven study centres.

SETTING

All patients were recruited and imaged at one of seven study centres in Aberdeen, Birmingham, Dundee, Dunfermline, Edinburgh, Liverpool and Oxford.

PARTICIPANTS

Subjects with features of diabetic retinopathy visible within the macular region attending one of seven diabetic retinal screening programmes.

INTERVENTIONS

Alternative referral criteria for suspected MO based on photographic surrogate markers; an optical coherence tomographic examination in addition to the standard digital retinal photograph.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

(1) To determine the best method to detect sight-threatening MO in people with diabetes using photographic surrogate markers. (2) Sensitivity and specificity estimates to assess the costs and consequences of using alternative strategies. (3) Modelled long-term costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS

Prevalence of MO was strongly related to the presence of lesions and was roughly five times higher in subjects with exudates or BHs or more than two M/DHs within one disc diameter. Having worse visual acuity was associated with about a fivefold higher prevalence of MO. Current manual screening grading schemes that ignore visual acuity or the presence of M/DHs could be improved by taking these into account. Health service costs increase substantially with more sensitive/less specific strategies. A fully automated strategy, using the automated detection of patterns of photographic surrogate markers, is superior to all current manual grading schemes for detecting MO in people with diabetes. The addition of optical coherence tomography (OCT) to each strategy, prior to referral, results in a reduction in costs to the health service with no decrement in the number of MO cases detected.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with all current manual grading schemes, for the same sensitivity, a fully automated strategy, using the automated detection of patterns of photographic surrogate markers, achieves a higher specificity for detecting MO in people with diabetes, especially if visual acuity is included in the automated strategy. Overall, costs to the health service are likely to increase if more sensitive referral strategies are adopted over more specific screening strategies for MO, for only very small gains in QALYs. The addition of OCT to each screening strategy, prior to referral, results in a reduction in costs to the health service with no decrement in the number of MO cases detected.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study has been registered as REC/IRAS 07/S0801/107, UKCRN ID 9063 and NIHR HTA 06/402/49.

SOURCE OF FUNDING

This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 17, No. 51. See the HTA programme website for further project information.

Idiopathic orbital pseudotumour

Idiopathic orbital pseudotumour (IOP) is a benign inflammatory condition usually confined to the orbit. This may involve single or multiple intraorbital structures. Extraorbital extension can also occur. The imaging appearances often mimic other orbital diseases. Both computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are frequently used to investigate orbital diseases, and it is important for radiologists to be aware of the variety of imaging appearances that occur in IOP. We present the imaging appearances in histopathologically confirmed cases of IOP and discuss the clinical features, natural history, and differential diagnosis of this condition.

3 T MR cholangiopancreatography appearances of biliary ascariasis

AIM

To evaluate the 3 T MR cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) appearances of biliary ascariasis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Nine patients with a MRCP diagnosis of biliary ascariasis were reviewed. All patients had endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) or surgical confirmation of the disease.

RESULTS

On thin-slab MRCP imaging, Ascaris worms are clearly demarcated within the biliary tree. All the identified worms demonstrated a characteristic three-parallel-lines appearance. The middle high-signal intensity line is sandwiched between two low-signal intensity lines and they are in turn surrounded by high signal bile. On thick-slab MRCP the worms also show the three-line sign but with less clarity. However, thick-slab MRCP has the advantage of providing three-dimensional ERCP-like images of the pancreaticobiliary system.

CONCLUSION

The "three-line" sign appears to be a characteristic sign of biliary ascariasis on 3 T MRCP.

Meninges in cancer imaging

Primary malignant tumours arising from the meninges are distinctly uncommon, and when they occur, they are usually sarcomas. In contrast, metastatic meningeal involvement is increasingly seen as advances in cancer therapy have changed the natural history of malignant disease and prolonged the life span of cancer patients. The meninges can either be infiltrated by contiguous extension of primary tumours of the central nervous system, paranasal sinuses and skull base origin or can be diffusely infiltrated from haematogenous dissemination from distant primary malignancies. Imaging in these patients provides crucial information in planning management. This article reviews the pertinent anatomy that underlies imaging findings, discusses the mechanism of meningeal metastasis and highlights different imaging patterns of meningeal carcinomatosis and the pitfalls.

Extraction of tongue carcinoma using genetic algorithm-induced fuzzy clustering and artificial neural network from MR images

A novel hierarchical image segmentation approach has been developed for the extraction of tongue carcinoma from magnetic resonance (MR) images. First, a genetic algorithm (GA)-induced fuzzy clustering is used for initial segmentation of MR images of head and neck. Then these segmented masses are refined to reduce the false-positives using an artificial neural network (ANN)-based symmetry detection and image analysis procedure. The proposed technique is applied to clinical MR images of tongue carcinoma and quantitative evaluations are performed. Experimental results suggest that the proposed approach provides an effective method for tongue carcinoma extraction with high accuracy and minimal user-dependency.

Evolving European guidance on the medical management of neovascular age related macular degeneration

BACKGROUND

Until recently, only two options were available for the treatment of choroidal neovascularisation (CNV) associated with age related macular degeneration (AMD)-thermal laser photocoagulation and photodynamic therapy with verteporfin (PDT-V). However, new treatments for CNV are in development, and data from phase III clinical trials of some of these pharmacological interventions are now available. In light of these new data, expert guidance is required to enable retina specialists with expertise in the management of AMD to select and use the most appropriate therapies for the treatment of neovascular AMD.

METHODS

Consensus from a round table of European retina specialists was obtained based on best available scientific data. Data rated at evidence levels 1 and 2 were evaluated for laser photocoagulation, PDT-V, pegaptanib sodium, and ranibizumab. Other treatments discussed are anecortave acetate, triamcinolone acetonide, bevacizumab, rostaporfin (SnET2), squalamine, and transpupillary thermotherapy.

RESULTS

PDT-V is currently recommended for subfoveal lesions with predominantly classic CNV, or with occult with no classic CNV with evidence of recent disease progression and a lesion size <or=4 Macular Photocoagulation Study (MPS) disc areas (DA). The new classes of anti-angiogenic agents-namely, pegaptanib sodium and ranibizumab (the latter when peer reviewed phase III data become available) are recommended for subfoveal lesions with any proportion of classic CNV or occult with no classic CNV. For juxtafoveal classic CNV, PDT-V or anti-angiogenic therapy should be considered if the new vessels are so close to the fovea that laser photocoagulation would almost certainly extend under the centre of the foveal avascular zone. For all other well demarcated juxtafoveal lesions and for extrafoveal classic lesions, laser photocoagulation remains the standard treatment. Therapy should be undertaken within 1 week of the fluorescein angiogram on which the clinical decision to treat is based. At each follow up, fluorescein angiography should be performed and best corrected visual acuity measured as a minimum requirement.

CONCLUSIONS

These recommendations provide evidence based guidance for the choice and use of non-surgical therapies for the management of neovascular AMD. Revisions of the recommendations may be required as new data become available.

Screening for age-related macular degeneration using nonstereo digital fundus photographs

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a disease with significant visual morbidity and accounts for the majority of blind registrations in the developed world including the UK. Certain forms of neovascular AMD are amenable to treatment but require expeditious referral to a retinal specialist.

AIM

To evaluate the possibility of using nonstereo fundus photographs as a low-cost screening tool for neovascular AMD.

DESIGN

Retrospective review of patients referred to the macular clinic of a teaching hospital in London.

METHODS

A total of 198 randomised digital fundus photographs, without any other clinical information, were presented to two independent ophthalmic interns who graded them into one of the three categories: normal, age-related maculopathy (ARM), or neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD) to determine the urgency of referral to clinic. The results were compared with the known diagnosis for each patient and sensitivities and specificities for each diagnostic category calculated.

RESULTS

The intraobserver Kappa statistic was 0.75 and 0.91 for grader 1 and 2, respectively. The interobserver Kappa was 0.54. The mean sensitivity and specificity for the identification of ARM was 60.5 and 76.3%, respectively The mean sensitivity and specificity for the identification of AMD was 85.7 and 78.8%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Nonstereo digital fundus photograph is a reasonable screening tool for CNV and may aid in decreasing the visual morbidity it causes by enabling timely referrals and treatment.

Radiotherapy for neovascular age-related macular degeneration

BACKGROUND

Radiotherapy has been proposed as a treatment to prevent new vessel growth in people with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD).

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this review was to examine the effects of radiotherapy on neovascular AMD.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (which contains the Cochrane Eyes and Vision Group trials register) on The Cochrane Library Issue 2, 2004, MEDLINE (1966 to May 2004), EMBASE (1980 to June 2004) and LILACS (Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature Database) (May 2004). We also wrote to investigators of trials included in the review to ask if they were aware of any other studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all randomised controlled trials in which radiotherapy was compared to another treatment, sham treatment, low dosage irradiation or no treatment in people with subfoveal choroidal neovascularisation secondary to AMD.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two reviewers independently extracted the data. Relative risks were combined using a random effects model. The percentage of the variability in effect estimates that was due to heterogeneity, rather than sampling error, was estimated using I2.

MAIN RESULTS

Eleven trials randomising a total of 1078 people were included in this review. All trials used a similar method of delivering the radiotherapy treatment (external beam). Dosage ranged from 7.5 to 24 Gy. Most trials found effects (not always significant) that favoured treatment. However, there was considerable inconsistency in the results between trials (I2 > 50%). As only 11 trials were included in the review and only some of these trials provided data for each outcome our ability to determine the causes of the heterogeneity between trials was limited. Subgroup analyses did not reveal any statistically significant interactions although with small numbers of trials in each subgroup (range two to four) this was not surprising. There was some indication that trials with no sham irradiation reported a greater effect of treatment as did trials with a greater percentage of participants with classic choroidal neovascularisation.

REVIEWERS' CONCLUSIONS

This review currently does not provide evidence that external beam radiotherapy is an effective treatment for neovascular AMD. If further trials are to be considered to evaluate radiotherapy in AMD then adequate masking of the control group must be considered. Given the recent evidence that most lesions are amenable to treatment with photodynamic therapy if identified at a small lesion size, trials evaluating radiotherapy against photodynamic therapy are warranted.

The skull base in oncologic imaging

Radiologists are often called upon to solve diagnostic problems involving the skull base in cancer patients. This presentation focuses on three issues: the detection of osseous involvement by infiltrating neoplasms, the diagnostic approach to bone tumours and the demonstration of head and neck tumours showing intracranial spread.

Relation of surgical volume to outcome in eight common operations: results from the VA National Surgical Quality Improvement Program

OBJECTIVE

To examine, in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), the relation between surgical volume and outcome in eight commonly performed operations of intermediate complexity.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

In multihospital health care systems such as VHA, consideration is often given to closing low-volume surgical services, with the assumption that better surgical outcomes are achieved in hospitals with larger surgical volumes. Literature data to support this assumption in intermediate-complexity operations are either limited or controversial.

METHODS

The VHA National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data on nonruptured abdominal aortic aneurysmectomy, vascular infrainguinal reconstruction, carotid endarterectomy (CEA), lung lobectomy/pneumonectomy, open and laparoscopic cholecystectomy, partial colectomy, and total hip arthroplasty were used. Pearson correlation, analysis of variance, mixed effects hierarchical logistic regression, and automatic interaction detection analysis were used to assess the association of annual procedure/specialty volume with risk-adjusted 30-day death (and stroke in CEA).

RESULTS

Eight major surgical procedures (68,631 operations) were analyzed. No statistically significant associations between procedure or specialty volume and 30-day mortality rate (or 30-day stroke rate in CEA) were found.

CONCLUSIONS

In VHA hospitals, the procedure and surgical specialty volume in eight prevalent operations of intermediate complexity are not associated with risk-adjusted 30-day mortality rate from these operations, or with the risk-adjusted 30-day stroke rate from CEA. Volume of surgery in these operations should not be used as a surrogate for quality of surgical care.

The Department of Veterans Affairs' NSQIP: the first national, validated, outcome-based, risk-adjusted, and peer-controlled program for the measurement and enhancement of the quality of surgical care. National VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program

OBJECTIVE

To provide reliable risk-adjusted morbidity and mortality rates after major surgery to the 123 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers (VAMCs) performing major surgery, and to use risk-adjusted outcomes in the monitoring and improvement of the quality of surgical care to all veterans.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Outcome-based comparative measures of the quality of surgical care among surgical services and surgical subspecialties have been elusive.

METHODS

This study included prospective assessment of presurgical risk factors, process of care during surgery, and outcomes 30 days after surgery on veterans undergoing major surgery in 123 medical centers; development of multivariable risk-adjustment models; identification of high and low outlier facilities by observed-to-expected outcome ratios; and generation of annual reports of comparative outcomes to all surgical services in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA).

RESULTS

The National VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) data base includes 417,944 major surgical procedures performed between October 1, 1991, and September 30, 1997. In FY97, 11 VAMCs were low outliers for risk-adjusted observed-to-expected mortality ratios; 13 VAMCs were high outliers for risk-adjusted observed-to-expected mortality ratios. Identification of high and low outliers by unadjusted mortality rates would have ascribed an outlier status incorrectly to 25 of 39 hospitals, an error rate of 64%. Since 1994, the 30-day mortality and morbidity rates for major surgery have fallen 9% and 30%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Reliable, valid information on patient presurgical risk factors, process of care during surgery, and 30-day morbidity and mortality rates is available for all major surgical procedures in the 123 VAMCs performing surgery in the VHA. With this information, the VHA has established the first prospective outcome-based program for comparative assessment and enhancement of the quality of surgical care among multiple institutions for several surgical subspecialties. Key features to the success of the NSQIP are the support of the surgeons who practice in the VHA, consistent clinical definitions and data collection by dedicated nurses, a uniform nationwide informatics system, and the support of VHA administration and managerial staff.

Isolated sphenoethmoid recess polyps

Isolated sphenoethmoid recess (SER) polyps are rare. They usually arise from the sphenoid sinus. We report six patients with SER polyps as the only abnormal clinical finding at initial presentation. All cases were investigated with outpatient biopsy and computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Pre-operative histology revealed three cases of inflammatory disease, two cases with inverted papilloma, and one case of an ectopic pituitary adenoma arising from the sphenoid sinus. One of the inflammatory polyps arose directly from the mucosa around the sphenoid ostium. The other five cases involved the sphenoid sinus. Except for the ectopic pituitary adenoma all the polyps were managed by transnasal endoscopic surgery. We emphasize that isolated SER polyps may signify existing sphenoid pathology and a pre-operative biopsy is valuable for planning surgery.