Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

Fewer invited talks by women in evolutionary biology symposia

Lower visibility of female scientists, compared to male scientists, is a potential reason for the under-representation of women among senior academic ranks. Visibility in the scientific community stems partly from presenting research as an invited speaker at organized meetings. We analysed the sex ratio of presenters at the European Society for Evolutionary Biology (ESEB) Congress 2011, where all abstract submissions were accepted for presentation. Women were under-represented among invited speakers at symposia (15% women) compared to all presenters (46%), regular oral presenters (41%) and plenary speakers (25%). At the ESEB congresses in 2001–2011, 9–23% of invited speakers were women. This under-representation of women is partly attributable to a larger proportion of women, than men, declining invitations: in 2011, 50% of women declined an invitation to speak compared to 26% of men. We expect invited speakers to be scientists from top ranked institutions or authors of recent papers in high-impact journals. Considering all invited speakers (including declined invitations), 23% were women. This was lower than the baseline sex ratios of early-mid career stage scientists, but was similar to senior scientists and authors that have published in high-impact journals. High-quality science by women therefore has low exposure at international meetings, which will constrain Evolutionary Biology from reaching its full potential. We wish to highlight the wider implications of turning down invitations to speak, and encourage conference organizers to implement steps to increase acceptance rates of invited talks.

Concerted changes in tropical forest structure and dynamics: evidence from 50 South American long-term plots

Several widespread changes in the ecology of old-growth tropical forests have recently been documented for the late twentieth century, in particular an increase in stem turnover (pan-tropical), and an increase in above-ground biomass (neotropical). Whether these changes are synchronous and whether changes in growth are also occurring is not known. We analysed stand-level changes within 50 long-term monitoring plots from across South America spanning 1971-2002. We show that: (i) basal area (BA: sum of the cross-sectional areas of all trees in a plot) increased significantly over time (by 0.10 +/- 0.04 m2 ha(-1) yr(-1), mean +/- 95% CI); as did both (ii) stand-level BA growth rates (sum of the increments of BA of surviving trees and BA of new trees that recruited into a plot); and (iii) stand-level BA mortality rates (sum of the cross-sectional areas of all trees that died in a plot). Similar patterns were observed on a per-stem basis: (i) stem density (number of stems per hectare; 1 hectare is 10(4) m2) increased significantly over time (0.94 +/- 0.63 stems ha(-1) yr(-1)); as did both (ii) stem recruitment rates; and (iii) stem mortality rates. In relative terms, the pools of BA and stem density increased by 0.38 +/- 0.15% and 0.18 +/- 0.12% yr(-1), respectively. The fluxes into and out of these pools-stand-level BA growth, stand-level BA mortality, stem recruitment and stem mortality rates-increased, in relative terms, by an order of magnitude more. The gain terms (BA growth, stem recruitment) consistently exceeded the loss terms (BA loss, stem mortality) throughout the period, suggesting that whatever process is driving these changes was already acting before the plot network was established. Large long-term increases in stand-level BA growth and simultaneous increases in stand BA and stem density imply a continent-wide increase in resource availability which is increasing net primary productivity and altering forest dynamics. Continent-wide changes in incoming solar radiation, and increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and air temperatures may have increased resource supply over recent decades, thus causing accelerated growth and increased dynamism across the world's largest tract of tropical forest.

Pattern and process in Amazon tree turnover, 1976-2001

Previous work has shown that tree turnover, tree biomass and large liana densities have increased in mature tropical forest plots in the late twentieth century. These results point to a concerted shift in forest ecological processes that may already be having significant impacts on terrestrial carbon stocks, fluxes and biodiversity. However, the findings have proved controversial, partly because a rather limited number of permanent plots have been monitored for rather short periods. The aim of this paper is to characterize regional-scale patterns of 'tree turnover' (the rate with which trees die and recruit into a population) by using improved datasets now available for Amazonia that span the past 25 years. Specifically, we assess whether concerted changes in turnover are occurring, and if so whether they are general throughout the Amazon or restricted to one region or environmental zone. In addition, we ask whether they are driven by changes in recruitment, mortality or both. We find that: (i) trees 10 cm or more in diameter recruit and die twice as fast on the richer soils of southern and western Amazonia than on the poorer soils of eastern and central Amazonia; (ii) turnover rates have increased throughout Amazonia over the past two decades; (iii) mortality and recruitment rates have both increased significantly in every region and environmental zone, with the exception of mortality in eastern Amazonia; (iv) recruitment rates have consistently exceeded mortality rates; (v) absolute increases in recruitment and mortality rates are greatest in western Amazonian sites; and (vi) mortality appears to be lagging recruitment at regional scales. These spatial patterns and temporal trends are not caused by obvious artefacts in the data or the analyses. The trends cannot be directly driven by a mortality driver (such as increased drought or fragmentation-related death) because the biomass in these forests has simultaneously increased. Our findings therefore indicate that long-acting and widespread environmental changes are stimulating the growth and productivity of Amazon forests.

Changes in the carbon balance of tropical forests: evidence from long-term plots

The role of the world's forests as a "sink" for atmospheric carbon dioxide is the subject of active debate. Long-term monitoring of plots in mature humid tropical forests concentrated in South America revealed that biomass gain by tree growth exceeded losses from tree death in 38 of 50 Neotropical sites. These forest plots have accumulated 0.71 ton, plus or minus 0.34 ton, of carbon per hectare per year in recent decades. The data suggest that Neotropical forests may be a significant carbon sink, reducing the rate of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Photographic identification of ground-nest predators in Australian tropical rainforest

Automatic cameras triggered by infrared beams were used to identify animals visiting artificial groundnests in north Queensland rainforest. In 1992-93 six cameras and nests were established at four sites ranging from 340 to 840m in elevation, and a total of 279 identifiable photographs of nest visitors were recorded. White-tailed rats (Uromys caudimaculatus) comprised 74% of all photographs and were the most frequent visitor at five of six nests. Bush rats (Rattus fuscipes) were second in frequency (17%), with other small mammals (Rattus leucopus, Melomys cervinipes, Perameles nasuta), birds (Ailuroedus melanotis, Pitta versicolor) and reptiles (Varanus varius) each accounting for less than 2% of nest visits. Omnivorous rodents comprised the large majority (96%) of visits and may be significant predators on nests of some ground-nesting birds in Australian tropical rainforest.

Further evidence for the precipitous decline of endemic rainforest frogs in tropical Australia*

In Queensland, Australia, severe declines or possible extinctions have been reported for a number of stream-dwelling frogs, all in montane rainforest environments (Covacevich and McDonald 1993). The declines have followed a distinctive geographic pattern, commencing in southern Queensland in the late 1970s (Czechura and Ingram 1990) then progressing to central Queensland (McDonald 1990) and finally to north Queensland in the mid-1980s (Richards et ai. 1993).

Avian nest predation in modified and natural habitats in troprical Queensland: an exeperimental study

Predation on artificial avian ground-nests was assessed from March to December 1991 in rainforest and nearby modified habitats in tropical Queensland. Data from 610 experimental nests were used to determine relative predation intensity in five types of habitat or microhabitat. Nest predators were identified with live-traps, with baited grease-plates and by regular observations of 380 additional nests. Predation intensity was patchy but often heavy in forested habitats (rainforest interiors, secondary forest, rainforest-pasture edges, and a rainforest-secondary forest edge) and negligible in adjoining cattle pastures. Forest edges exhibited no obvious edge-interior gradients in predation intensity. Most predation occurred at night in rainforest (88%) and secondary forest (61%), and patterns of egg damage suggested that mammals were responsible for most (>71%) nest predation. A combined nest-predation and live-trapping experiment on six study plots revealed that the abundance of white-tailed rats (Uromys caudimaculatus) was a highly effective predictor of local predation intensity (F=30.15, r*2=0.85, P=0.004). One of Australia's largest rodents, the white-tailed rat may be a key opportunistic predator of some bird nests in north Queensland rainforest.

Abundance estimates of small mammals in Australian tropical rainforest: a comparison of four trapping methods

I compared the efficacy of terrestrial, arboreal, carnivore, and pitfall trapping methods for censusing small (200 animals per 1000 trap-nights), whereas carnivore (83.7 animals per 1000 trap-nights) and pitfall (9.1 animals per 1000 trap-nights) traps were less effective. However, each method was particularly effective for 1-4 species, with factors such as diet, vertical microhabitat use, body size and trap avoidance strongly influencing trappability of different species. Strategies for censusing small mammals in tropical rainforest are discussed.