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Yousafzai A, Manzoor W, Raza G, Mahmood T, Rehman F, Hadi R, Shah S, Amin M, Akhtar A, Bashir S, Habiba U, Hussain M. Forest yield prediction under different climate change scenarios using data intelligent models in Pakistan. BRAZ J BIOL 2021; 84:e253106. [PMID: 34730700 DOI: 10.1590/1519-6984.253106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2021] [Accepted: 07/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
This study aimed to develop and evaluate data driven models for prediction of forest yield under different climate change scenarios in the Gallies forest division of district Abbottabad, Pakistan. The Random Forest (RF) and Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) models were developed and evaluated using yield data of two species (Blue pine and Silver fir) as an objective variable and climate data (temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind speed) as predictive variables. Prediction accuracy of both the models were assessed by means of root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), correlation coefficient (r), relative root mean squared error (RRMSE), Legates-McCabe's (LM), Willmott's index (WI) and Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) metrics. Overall, the RF model outperformed the KRR model due to its higher accuracy in forecasting of forest yield. The study strongly recommends that RF model should be applied in other regions of the country for prediction of forest growth and yield, which may help in the management and future planning of forest productivity in Pakistan.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Yousafzai
- University of Haripur, Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - W Manzoor
- COMSATS University Islamabad - CUI, Lahore Campus, Department of Economics, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
| | - G Raza
- University of Baltistan, Department of Biological Sciences, Skardu, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan
| | - T Mahmood
- University of Sargodha, University College of Agriculture, Department of Forestry, Sargodha, Punjab, Pakistan
| | - F Rehman
- COMSATS University Islamabad - CUI, Lahore Campus, Department of Economics, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
| | - R Hadi
- Jinnah University for Women, Department of Zoology, Nazimabad, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - S Shah
- University of Swat, Institute of Agriculture Sciences and Forestry, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - M Amin
- Shaheed Benazir Bhutto University, Department of Environmental Sciences, Sheringal, Dir (U), KP, Pakistan
| | - A Akhtar
- University of Haripur, Department of Psychology, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - S Bashir
- Planning, Agriculture Research System, Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - U Habiba
- University of Haripur, Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
| | - M Hussain
- University of Haripur, Department of Forestry and Wildlife Management, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
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