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van de Wal RSW, Nicholls RJ, Behar D, McInnes K, Stammer D, Lowe JA, Church JA, DeConto R, Fettweis X, Goelzer H, Haasnoot M, Haigh ID, Hinkel J, Horton BP, James TS, Jenkins A, LeCozannet G, Levermann A, Lipscomb WH, Marzeion B, Pattyn F, Payne AJ, Pfeffer WT, Price SF, Seroussi H, Sun S, Veatch W, White K. A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners. Earths Future 2022; 10:e2022EF002751. [PMID: 36590252 PMCID: PMC9787942 DOI: 10.1029/2022ef002751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2022] [Revised: 09/23/2022] [Accepted: 10/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.
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Affiliation(s)
- R. S. W. van de Wal
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research UtrechtUtrecht UniversityTA UtrechtThe Netherlands
- Department of Physical GeographyUtrecht UniversityTA UtrechtThe Netherlands
| | - R. J. Nicholls
- Tyndall Centre for Climate Change ResearchUniversity of East AngliaNorwichUK
| | - D. Behar
- San Francisco Public Utilities CommissionSan FranciscoCAUSA
| | - K. McInnes
- Climate Change Research CentreUNSW AustraliaSydneyNSWAustralia
| | - D. Stammer
- Centrum für Erdsystemforschung und NachhaltigkeitUniversität HamburgHamburgGermany
| | - J. A. Lowe
- Met Office Hadley CentreExeterUK
- Priestley CentreUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - J. A. Church
- Climate Change Research CentreUNSW AustraliaSydneyNSWAustralia
- Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS)University of TasmaniaHobartTASAustralia
| | - R. DeConto
- Department of GeosciencesUniversity of Massachusetts‐AmherstAmherstMAUSA
| | - X. Fettweis
- Department of GeographySPHERES Research UnitUniversity of LiègeLiègeBelgium
| | - H. Goelzer
- NORCE Norwegian Research CentreBjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergenNorway
| | | | - I. D. Haigh
- School of Ocean and Earth ScienceUniversity of SouthamptonNational Oceanography CentreSouthamptonUK
| | - J. Hinkel
- Adaptation and Social LearningGlobal Climate ForumBerlinGermany
| | - B. P. Horton
- Earth Observatory of SingaporeNanyang Technological UniversitySingaporeSingapore
- Asian School of the EnvironmentNanyang Technological UniversitySingaporeSingapore
| | - T. S. James
- Natural Resources CanadaGeological Survey of CanadaSidneyBCCanada
| | - A. Jenkins
- Department of Geography and Environmental SciencesNorthumbria UniversityNewcastle upon TyneUK
| | - G. LeCozannet
- Coastal Risks and Climate Change UnitRisks and Prevention DivisionBRGMOrléansFrance
| | - A. Levermann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdamGermany
- LDEOColumbia UniversityNew YorkNYUSA
- Physics InstituteUniversity of PotsdamPotsdamGermany
| | - W. H. Lipscomb
- Climate and Global Dynamics LaboratoryNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulderCOUSA
| | - B. Marzeion
- Institute of Geography and MARUM ‐ Center for Marine Environmental SciencesUniversity of BremenBremenGermany
| | - F. Pattyn
- Laboratoire de GlaciologieUniversité libre de BruxellesBrusselsBelgium
| | - A. J. Payne
- School of Geographical SciencesUniversity of BristolBristolUK
| | - W. T. Pfeffer
- INSTAAR and Department of Civil, Environmental, Architectural EngineeringUniversity of ColoradoBoulderCOUSA
| | - S. F. Price
- Theoretical DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNMUSA
| | - H. Seroussi
- Thayer School of EngineeringDartmouth CollegeHanoverNHUSA
| | - S. Sun
- Coastal Risks and Climate Change UnitRisks and Prevention DivisionBRGMOrléansFrance
| | - W. Veatch
- US Army Corps of Engineers, HeadquartersWashingtonDCUSA
| | - K. White
- US Department of DefenseOffice of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (Environment and Energy Resilience)DCWashingtonUSA
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MacFerrin M, Machguth H, As DV, Charalampidis C, Stevens CM, Heilig A, Vandecrux B, Langen PL, Mottram R, Fettweis X, Broeke MRVD, Pfeffer WT, Moussavi MS, Abdalati W. Rapid expansion of Greenland's low-permeability ice slabs. Nature 2019; 573:403-407. [PMID: 31534244 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1550-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2018] [Accepted: 07/08/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
In recent decades, meltwater runoff has accelerated to become the dominant mechanism for mass loss in the Greenland ice sheet1-3. In Greenland's high-elevation interior, porous snow and firn accumulate; these can absorb surface meltwater and inhibit runoff4, but this buffering effect is limited if enough water refreezes near the surface to restrict percolation5,6. However, the influence of refreezing on runoff from Greenland remains largely unquantified. Here we use firn cores, radar observations and regional climate models to show that recent increases in meltwater have resulted in the formation of metres-thick, low-permeability 'ice slabs' that have expanded the Greenland ice sheet's total runoff area by 26 ± 3 per cent since 2001. Although runoff from the top of ice slabs has added less than one millimetre to global sea-level rise so far, this contribution will grow substantially as ice slabs expand inland in a warming climate. Runoff over ice slabs is set to contribute 7 to 33 millimetres and 17 to 74 millimetres to global sea-level rise by 2100 under moderate- and high-emissions scenarios, respectively-approximately double the estimated runoff from Greenland's high-elevation interior, as predicted by surface mass balance models without ice slabs. Ice slabs will have an important role in enhancing surface meltwater feedback processes, fundamentally altering the ice sheet's present and future hydrology.
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Affiliation(s)
- M MacFerrin
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA.
| | - H Machguth
- Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland.,Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - D van As
- Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - C Charalampidis
- Bavarian Academy of Sciences and Humanities, Munich, Germany
| | - C M Stevens
- Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - A Heilig
- WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland.,Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich, Munich, Germany.,Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
| | - B Vandecrux
- Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Copenhagen, Denmark.,Department of Civil Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark
| | - P L Langen
- Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - R Mottram
- Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - X Fettweis
- Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
| | - M R van den Broeke
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - W T Pfeffer
- Department of Civil Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - M S Moussavi
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA.,National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - W Abdalati
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
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3
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Tedesco M, Mote T, Fettweis X, Hanna E, Jeyaratnam J, Booth JF, Datta R, Briggs K. Arctic cut-off high drives the poleward shift of a new Greenland melting record. Nat Commun 2016; 7:11723. [PMID: 27277547 PMCID: PMC4906163 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11723] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2015] [Accepted: 04/25/2016] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Large-scale atmospheric circulation controls the mass and energy balance of the Greenland ice sheet through its impact on radiative budget, runoff and accumulation. Here, using reanalysis data and the outputs of a regional climate model, we show that the persistence of an exceptional atmospheric ridge, centred over the Arctic Ocean, was responsible for a poleward shift of runoff, albedo and surface temperature records over the Greenland during the summer of 2015. New records of monthly mean zonal winds at 500 hPa and of the maximum latitude of ridge peaks of the 5,700±50 m isohypse over the Arctic were associated with the formation and persistency of a cutoff high. The unprecedented (1948–2015) and sustained atmospheric conditions promoted enhanced runoff, increased the surface temperatures and decreased the albedo in northern Greenland, while inhibiting melting in the south, where new melting records were set over the past decade. Atmospheric circulation controls the mass and energy balance of the Greenland ice sheet, yet the exact dynamics remain unknown. Here, the authors show that record conditions over Greenland during the summer of 2015 were associated with the formation and persistency of an Arctic cut-off high.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Tedesco
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, New York 10964, USA.,NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies, New York, New York 10025, USA
| | - T Mote
- University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602-2502, USA
| | - X Fettweis
- University of Liege, Liege 4000, Belgium
| | - E Hanna
- University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
| | - J Jeyaratnam
- The City College of New York, New York, New York 10031, USA
| | - J F Booth
- The City College of New York, New York, New York 10031, USA
| | - R Datta
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, New York 10964, USA.,The City College of New York, New York, New York 10031, USA.,The Graduate Center of the City University of New York, New York, New York 10016, USA
| | - K Briggs
- University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
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Harper J, Humphrey N, Pfeffer WT, Brown J, Fettweis X. Greenland ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise buffered by meltwater storage in firn. Nature 2012; 491:240-3. [DOI: 10.1038/nature11566] [Citation(s) in RCA: 141] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2012] [Accepted: 08/31/2012] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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Tedesco M, Fettweis X, den Broeke MR, Wal RSW, Smeets CJPP, Berg WJ, Serreze MC, Box JE. Record Summer Melt in Greenland in 2010. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2011eo150002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- M. Tedesco
- City University of New York, New York, USA
| | | | - M. R. den Broeke
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - R. S. W. Wal
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - C. J. P. P. Smeets
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - W. J. Berg
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - M. C. Serreze
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, USA
| | - J. E. Box
- Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State University, Columbus, USA
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Steen-Larsen HC, Masson-Delmotte V, Sjolte J, Johnsen SJ, Vinther BM, Bréon FM, Clausen HB, Dahl-Jensen D, Falourd S, Fettweis X, Gallée H, Jouzel J, Kageyama M, Lerche H, Minster B, Picard G, Punge HJ, Risi C, Salas D, Schwander J, Steffen K, Sveinbjörnsdóttir AE, Svensson A, White J. Understanding the climatic signal in the water stable isotope records from the NEEM shallow firn/ice cores in northwest Greenland. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2011. [DOI: 10.1029/2010jd014311] [Citation(s) in RCA: 111] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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