[Characteristics and changes of cardiac injury with age in children of Duchenne muscular dystrophy: a prospective cohort study]

Objective: To explore the characteristics and changes of cardiac injury with age in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) and its clinical significance. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted. The 215 patients diagnosed with DMD in West China Second Hospital from January 2019 to November 2022 and aged from 6 to 18 years were enrolled. Their clinical data, myocardial injury markers, routine electrocardiogram, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) and echocardiography were collected. The patients were divided into five age groups: 6-<8, 8-<10, 10-<12, 12-<14 and 14-18 years of age, and matched with healthy boys respectively. Independent sample t test or Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the clinical data and CMR indexes between DMD patients and controls in all age subgroups, and to compare the value of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) measured by echocardiography and CMR in each subgroup of DMD patitents. Pearson correlation analysis or Spearman correlation analysis was used to explore the relation between the CMR indexes and age in DMD patients. Results: A total of 215 patients with DMD (all male) and 122 healthy boys were included in the study. There were 75 DMD patients and 23 controls in 6-<8 years of age group, 77 DMD and 28 controls in 8-<10 years of age group, 39 DMD and 23 controls in 10-<12 years of age group, 10 DMD and 31 controls in the 12-<14 years of age group, and 14 DMD and 17 controls in 14-18 years of age group. In the DMD patients, the older the age, the lower the levels of creatine kinase (CK) and creatine kinase isoenzyme (CK-MB). In the 6-<8 years of age group, the CK level was 10 760 (7 800, 15 757) U/L, while in the group of 14-18 years of age, it was 2 369 (1 480, 6 944) U/L. As for CK-MB, it was (189±17) μg/L in the 6-<8 years of age group and (62±16) μg/L in the 14-18 years of age group. Cardiac troponin I remained unchanged in <12 years of age groups, but significantly increased in 12-<14 years of age group, reaching the highest value of 0.112 (0.006, 0.085) μg/L. In the DMD patients, the older the age, the higher the proportion of abnormal electrocardiogram (ECG). In the 6-<8 years of age group, the proportion is 29.3% (22/75), while in the 14-18 years of age group, it was 10/14. Correlation analysis showed that the left ventricular end-diastolic volume index was positively related with age (r=0.18, P=0.015), and the left ventricular stroke volume index and cardiac output index were negatively related with age (r=-0.34 and -0.31, respectively, both P<0.001). In the DMD patients, the older the age, the lower LVEF, with the LVEF decreasing to (49.3±3.1)% in the 14-18 years of age group. The LVEF of DMD cases was significantly lower than that of controls in the age subgroups of 8-<10, 10-<12, 12-<14 and 14-18 years of age groups ((57.9±5.2) % vs. (63.6±0.8)%, 60.7% (55.9%, 61.9%) vs. 63.7% (60.2%, 66.0%), 57.1% (51.8%, 63.4%) vs. 62.1 % (59.5%, 64.5)%, (49.3±3.1) % vs. (61.6±1.3)%, respectively; all P<0.01). In the DMD patients, the older the age, the higher the proportion of positive late gadolinium enhancement (LGE). In the 6-<8 years of age group, it was 22% (11/51), in the 12-<14 years of age group, it was 13/14, and in the 14-18 years of age group, all DMD showed positive LGE. The value of LVEF of DMD cases measured by echocardiography was significantly higher than that measured by CMR in 6-<8 years of age group and 8-<10 years of age group (63.2% (60.1%, 66.4%) vs. 59.1 % (55.4%, 62.9%), and (62.8±5.2) % vs. (57.9±5.2)%, all P<0.001). Conclusion: DMD patients develop cardiac injury in the early stage of the disease, and the incidence of cardiac damage gradually increases with both age and the progression of disease.

Factors contributing to 1-year dissatisfaction after total knee arthroplasty: a nomogram prediction model

Background

Identifying risk factors and early intervention are critical for improving the satisfaction rate of total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Our study aimed to identify patient-specific variables and establish a nomogram model to predict dissatisfaction at 1 year after TKA.

Methods

This prospective cohort study involved 208 consecutive primary TKA patients with end-stage arthritis who completed self-reported measures preoperatively and at 1 year postoperatively. All participants were randomized into a training cohort (n = 154) and validation cohort (n = 54). Multiple regression models with preoperative and postoperative factors were used to establish the nomogram model for dissatisfaction at 1 year postoperatively. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method was used to screen the suitable and effective risk factors (demographic variables, preoperative variables, surgical variable, and postoperative variables) collected. These variables were compared between the satisfied and dissatisfied groups in the training cohort. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis were used to validate the discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness of the model. Results were evaluated by internal validation of the validation cohort.

Results

The overall satisfaction rate 1 year after TKA was 77.8%. The nomogram prediction model included the following risk factors: gender; primary diagnosis; postoperative residual pain; poor postoperative range of motion; wound healing; and the rate of change in the degree of coronal lower limb alignment (hip–knee–ankle angle, HKA).The ROC curves of the training and validation cohorts were 0.9206 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8785–0.9627) and 0.9662 (0.9231, 1.0000) (95% CI, 0.9231, 1.0000), respectively. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test showed good calibration of the nomogram (training cohort, p = 0.218; validation cohort, p = 0.103).

Conclusion

This study developed a prediction nomogram model based on partially modifiable risk factors for predicting dissatisfaction 1 year after TKA. This model demonstrated good discriminative capacity for identifying those at greatest risk for dissatisfaction and may help surgeons and patients identify and evaluate the risk factors for dissatisfaction and optimize TKA outcomes.

[Diagnostic efficacy of indirect haemagglutination assay for detection of Schistosoma japonicum infections among boatmen and fishermen in the Dongting Lake region]

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of indirect haemagglutination assay (IHA) for detection of Schistosoma japonicum infections among boatmen and fishermen in Dongting Lake region, so as to provide insights into improving the schistosomiasis surveillance program among boatmen and fishermen.

METHODS

The boatmen and fishermen were detected for S. japonicum infections using IHA and Kato-Katz technique or miracidium hatching test nylon gauze simultaneously at schistosomiasis testing sites in the anchor sites for boatmen and fishermen in the Dongting Lake region during the period from 2014 to 2016, and using IHA for serological screening followed by parasitological testing of seropositives during the period from 2017 to 2019. The sensitivity and specificity of IHA were evaluated for detection of S. japonicum infections among boatmen and fishermen, with the 2014-2016 parasitological testing results as a gold standard. In addition, the seroprevalence of S. japonicum infections was compared among boatmen and fishermen with different characteristics and among years.

RESULTS

A total of 306 schistosomiasis testing sites were assigned for boatmen and fishermen, and a total of 143 360 person-time boatmen and fishermen were tested for S. japonicum infections in the Dongting Lake region from 2014 to 2019. The sensitivity and specificity of IHA were 69.9%, 97.3% and 96.1% (χ² = 74.6, P < 0.05), and 70.9%, 74.5% and 71.9% for detection of S. japonicum infections from 2014 to 2016 (χ² = 29.4, P < 0.05), respectively. The seroprevalence of S. japonicum infections reduced from 30.3% in 2014 to 1.8% in 2019 among boatmen and fishermen, appearing an overall tendency towards a decline (Z = 1 552.4, P < 0.05). In addition, male, individuals at ages of 45 to 60 years, full-time boatmen and fishermen were more likely to be seropositive for S. japonicum infections (all P values < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The seroprevalence of S. japonicum infections appeared a tendency towards a decline among boatmen and fishermen in the Dongting Lake region year by year from 2014 to 2019. IHA presented a high efficacy for screening of S. japonicum infections among boatmen and fishermen in the Dongting Lake region.

Associations Between the Metabolic Score for Insulin Resistance Index and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Among Non-Obese Adults: Insights from a Population-Based Cohort Study

Purpose

The metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR) index is an emerging surrogate predictor of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to evaluate the association between the METS-IR index and the risk of T2DM in non-obese Japanese adults.

Methods

A total of 12,290 non-obese participants were selected from the NAGALA prospective cohort study conducted from 2004 to 2015. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between the baseline METS-IR index and risk of T2DM. Generalized additive models were used to identify nonlinear relationships. In addition, we performed subgroup analyses and interaction tests. Results were expressed as hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

During a median follow-up of 2050 days, 176 (1.43%) incident T2DM occurred. The fully adjusted HR (95% CI) for the incidence of T2DM in non-obese adults was 1.17 (HR=1.17, 95% CI: 1.09–1.27, P<0.001) for every 1-unit increase in the METS-IR index. The risk of developing T2DM increased with the quartile of change in the METS-IR index, after adjustment for multiple potential confounding, the HRs for the Q4 group versus the Q1 group was 4.01 (95% CI, 1.39–11.57). Generalized additive models also showed a cumulative increase in the risk of T2DM with increasing the METS-IR index. Time-dependent receiver operating curve suggested helpful discriminative power of the METS-IR index for T2DM. The C-statistics by the clinical risk factors significantly improve with the addition of the METS-IR index (from 0.862 to 0.875, P = 0.035); the discriminatory power and risk reclassification also appeared to be substantially better, with the category-free NRI of 0.216, and the IDI of 0.011.

Conclusion

The METS-IR index was a significant and independent predictor for future T2DM development in non-obese adults. The METS-IR index may have clinical significance in identifying groups at high risk of T2DM.

Derivation and Validation of a Prediction Model for Predicting the 5-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Non-Obese Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to derivate and validate a nomogram based on independent predictors to better evaluate the 5-year risk of T2D in non-obese adults.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This is a historical cohort study from a collection of databases that included 12,940 non-obese participants without diabetes at baseline. All participants were randomised to a derivation cohort (n = 9651) and a validation cohort (n = 3289). In the derivation cohort, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to determine the optimal risk factors for T2D. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to establish the nomogram of T2D prediction. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, C-index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis were performed by 1000 bootstrap resamplings to evaluate the discrimination ability, calibration, and clinical practicability of the nomogram.

RESULTS

After LASSO regression analysis of the derivation cohort, it was found that age, fatty liver, γ-glutamyltranspeptidase, triglycerides, glycosylated hemoglobin A1c and fasting plasma glucose were risk predictors, which were integrated into the nomogram. The C-index of derivation cohort and validation cohort were 0.906 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.878-0.934] and 0.837 (95% CI, 0.760-0.914), respectively. The AUC of 5-year T2D risk in the derivation cohort and validation cohort was 0.916 (95% CI, 0.889-0.943) and 0.829 (95% CI, 0.753-0.905), respectively. The calibration curve indicated that the predicted probability of nomogram is in good agreement with the actual probability. The decision curve analysis demonstrated that the predicted nomogram was clinically useful.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram can be used as a reasonable, affordable, simple, and widely implemented tool to predict the 5-year risk of T2D in non-obese adults. With this model, early identification of high-risk individuals is helpful to timely intervene and reduce the risk of T2D in non-obese adults.