Prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates: screening by uterine artery Doppler and mean arterial pressure at 19-24 weeks

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the potential value of uterine artery (UtA) pulsatility index (PI) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) at 19-24 weeks' gestation, in combination with maternal characteristics and medical history and fetal biometry in the prediction of delivery of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonates in the absence of pre-eclampsia (PE) and to examine the potential value of such assessment in deciding whether the third-trimester scan should be performed at 32 and/or 36 weeks' gestation.

METHODS

This was a screening study in 63 975 singleton pregnancies, including 3702 (5.8%) that delivered SGA neonates with birth weight < 5(th) percentile (SGA < 5(th) ) in the absence of PE. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine if screening by a combination of maternal factors, fetal head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC), femur length (FL), UtA-PI and MAP had significant contribution in predicting SGA neonates. A model was developed to select gestational age for the third-trimester assessment, at 32 and/or 36 weeks, based on the results of screening at 19-24 weeks.

RESULTS

The detection rates (DRs) of combined screening by maternal factors, fetal biometry and UtA-PI at 19-24 weeks were 90%, 68% and 44% for SGA < 5(th) delivering < 32, 32-36 and ≥ 37 weeks' gestation, respectively, at a false-positive rate (FPR) of 10%. The performance of screening was not improved by the addition of MAP. The DR of SGA < 5(th) delivering at 32-36 weeks improved from 68% to 90% with screening at 32 rather than at 19-24 weeks. Similarly, the DR of SGA < 5(th) delivering ≥ 37 weeks improved from 44% with screening at 19-24 weeks to 59% and 76% when screening at 32 and 36 weeks, respectively. In a hypothetical model, it was estimated that if the desired objective of prenatal screening is to predict about 80% of the cases of SGA < 5(th) , it would be necessary to select 17% of the population at the 19-24-week assessment to be reassessed at 32 weeks and 38% to be reassessed at 36 weeks; 62% would not require a third-trimester scan.

CONCLUSION

Prenatal prediction of a high proportion of SGA neonates necessitates the undertaking of screening in the third trimester of pregnancy in addition to assessment in the second trimester, and the timing of such screening, at 32 and/or 36 weeks, should be contingent on the results of the assessment at 19-24 weeks.

Prediction of small-for-gestational-age neonates: screening by fetal biometry at 35-37 weeks

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the value of fetal biometry at 35-37 weeks' gestation in the prediction of delivery of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonates, in the absence of pre-eclampsia (PE).

METHODS

This was a screening study in singleton pregnancies at 35-37 weeks' gestation, comprising 278 that delivered SGA neonates with a birth weight < 5th percentile and 5237 cases unaffected by SGA, PE or gestational hypertension. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to determine if screening by a combination of maternal factors and Z-scores of fetal head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL) or estimated fetal weight (EFW) had a significant contribution to the prediction of SGA neonates.

RESULTS

Multivariable logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the likelihood of delivering a SGA neonate with a birth weight < 5th percentile decreased with maternal weight and height, and in parous women the risk increased with a longer interpregnancy interval. The risk was higher in women of Afro-Caribbean and South Asian racial origins, in cigarette smokers, nulliparous women and in those with history of SGA, with or without prior PE. Combined screening by maternal characteristics and history with EFW Z-scores at 35-37 weeks predicted 89% of SGA neonates with birth weight < 5th percentile delivering < 2 weeks following assessment, at a 10% false-positive rate (FPR). The respective detection rate for the prediction of SGA neonates delivering ≥ 37 weeks' gestation was 70%. The performance of screening by a combination of Z-scores of fetal HC, AC and FL was similar to that achieved by the EFW Z-score.

CONCLUSION

Combined testing by maternal characteristics and fetal biometry at 35-37 weeks could identify, at a 10% FPR, about 90% of pregnancies that subsequently deliver SGA neonates within 2 weeks of assessment and 70% of those that deliver ≥ 37 weeks.