A machine learning approach to predict daptomycin exposure from two concentrations based on Monte Carlo simulations

Daptomycin is a concentration-dependent lipopeptide antibiotic for which exposure/effect relationships have been shown. Machine learning (ML) algorithms, developed to predict the individual exposure to drugs, have shown very good performances in comparison to maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation (MAP-BE). The aim of this work was to predict the area under the blood concentration curve (AUC) of daptomycin from two samples and a few covariates using XGBoost ML algorithm trained on Monte Carlo simulations. Five thousand one hundred fifty patients were simulated from two literature population pharmacokinetics models. Data from the first model were split into a training set (75%) and a testing set (25%). Four ML algorithms were built to learn AUC based on daptomycin blood concentration samples at pre-dose and 1 h post-dose. The XGBoost model (best ML algorithm) with the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) in a 10-fold cross-validation experiment was evaluated in both the test set and the simulations from the second population pharmacokinetic model (validation). The ML model based on the two concentrations, the differences between these concentrations, and five other covariates (sex, weight, daptomycin dose, creatinine clearance, and body temperature) yielded very good AUC estimation in the test (relative bias/RMSE = 0.43/7.69%) and validation sets (relative bias/RMSE = 4.61/6.63%). The XGBoost ML model developed allowed accurate estimation of daptomycin AUC using C0, C1h, and a few covariates and could be used for exposure estimation and dose adjustment. This ML approach can facilitate the conduct of future therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) studies.

In Silico Pharmacokinetics Evaluation of Forgiveness for Doravirine and Rilpivirine

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the concentrations of rilpivirine (RLP) and doravirine (DOR) after 3 days-off using simulations from population pharmacokinetics models.

METHODS

The authors conducted a series of 500 sets of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations to examine the steady-state conditions for 2 common dosage levels: 25 mg/d for RLP and 100 mg/d for DOR. These simulations were conducted under 2 scenarios: 1 without drug cessation and another after a 3-day break. The validity of the implementation was established through a comparison of median trough concentrations (C24h) with previously reported data. Subsequently, the proportion of simulated patients with C24h and C72h after 3 days-off (C72h/3do) that exceeded the inhibitory concentration 50 (IC50), 5.2 mcg/L for DOR and 20.5 mcg/L for RLP respectively, was calculated. The inhibitory quotient (IQ) was also computed, which was 6 times IC50 for DOR and 4.5 times IC50 for RLP. Finally, nomograms were constructed to estimate the probability of having C72h/3do > IC50 or > IQ for different ranges of C24h.

RESULTS

Simulated C24h median ± SD for RLP were 61.8 ± 0.4 mcg/L and for DOR 397 ± 0 mcg/L. For RLP, 99.3 ± 0.1% exceeded IC50 at C24h, 16.4 ± 0.4% at C72h/3do, and none surpassed the IQ threshold. In contrast, DOR had 100% ± 0% above IC50 at C24h, 93.6 ± 0.2% at C72h/3do, and 58.6 ± 0.5% exceeded the IQ.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that treatment with DOR may offer a more forgiving therapeutic profile than RLP, given the larger proportion of patients achieving effective drug exposure with DOR. However, it is important to acknowledge a significant limitation of this study, namely, the assumption that drug concentration is a perfect surrogate for drug effectiveness.

Doravirine Exposure Decreased by Dialysis in a HIV Patient: A Grand Round

BACKGROUND

The authors report the case of a 66-year-old male patient who was hemodialyzed 3 times per week for chronic renal failure and treated with 100 mg of doravirine once daily in combination with dolutegravir for HIV-1. No dose adjustment is required for doravirine in cases of severe renal injury, but the effect of dialysis on its exposure is poorly understood.

METHODS RESULTS

Two series of 2 samples were drawn before and after 4-hour hemodialysis and showed an average doravirine concentration decrease of 48.1 ± 6.7%. The effects of hemodialysis were important, contrary to what was expected and has been previously reported. In addition, intraindividual variability was low. Nevertheless, because the concentrations reported were largely above the inhibitory concentration 50 (IC 50 ), no dose adjustment was required.

CONCLUSIONS

The decrease in doravirine concentration due to hemodialysis observed in this case report was quite significant. Therefore, therapeutic drug monitoring might be recommended in certain patients undergoing doravirine treatment also on hemodialysis.