Development and validation of a nomogram to predict poor short-term response to recombinant human growth hormone treatment in children with growth disorders

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a clinical predictive model for predicting the likelihood of a poor therapeutic response during the first year of recombinant human growth hormone (rhGH) treatment in children with growth disorders.

METHODS

A total of 627 pediatric patients with growth disorders (GHD, ISS, TS, SGA) from The LG Growth Study cohort were evaluated. Restricted cubic splines (RCS) were utilized to investigate the association between predictors and the risk of poor rhGH response. Variables were selected using LASSO regression, and multivariate logistics regression models were established. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curves (CIC) were used to assess the predictive model's accuracy and clinical value. The predictive accuracy of the model was validated on the testing set.

RESULTS

Two predictive models containing 8 baseline predictors (diagnosis, age, height SDS, bone age minus chronological age, rhGH dosage, distance from mid-parental height in SDS, weight SDS, IGF-1 SDS) and 1 post-treatment predictor (height SDS gain at 6 months) were constructed by multivariate logistic regression analyses. The nomogram was built based on the multivariate predictive model and showed good discrimination and model fit effects in both the training set and the testing set. DCA and CIC analyses presented good clinical usability.

CONCLUSION

The clinical predictive model for predicting the probability of poor short-term response of rhGH treatment in pediatric patients with growth disorders is useful and can assist physicians in making clinical decisions.

[A multicenter epidemiological study of acute bacterial meningitis in children]

Objective: To analyze the clinical epidemiological characteristics including composition of pathogens , clinical characteristics, and disease prognosis acute bacterial meningitis (ABM) in Chinese children. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical and laboratory data of 1 610 children <15 years of age with ABM in 33 tertiary hospitals in China from January 2019 to December 2020. Patients were divided into different groups according to age,<28 days group, 28 days to <3 months group, 3 months to <1 year group, 1-<5 years of age group, 5-<15 years of age group; etiology confirmed group and clinically diagnosed group according to etiology diagnosis. Non-numeric variables were analyzed with the Chi-square test or Fisher's exact test, while non-normal distrituction numeric variables were compared with nonparametric test. Results: Among 1 610 children with ABM, 955 were male and 650 were female (5 cases were not provided with gender information), and the age of onset was 1.5 (0.5, 5.5) months. There were 588 cases age from <28 days, 462 cases age from 28 days to <3 months, 302 cases age from 3 months to <1 year of age group, 156 cases in the 1-<5 years of age and 101 cases in the 5-<15 years of age. The detection rates were 38.8% (95/245) and 31.5% (70/222) of Escherichia coli and 27.8% (68/245) and 35.1% (78/222) of Streptococcus agalactiae in infants younger than 28 days of age and 28 days to 3 months of age; the detection rates of Streptococcus pneumonia, Escherichia coli, and Streptococcus agalactiae were 34.3% (61/178), 14.0% (25/178) and 13.5% (24/178) in the 3 months of age to <1 year of age group; the dominant pathogens were Streptococcus pneumoniae and the detection rate were 67.9% (74/109) and 44.4% (16/36) in the 1-<5 years of age and 5-<15 years of age . There were 9.7% (19/195) strains of Escherichia coli producing ultra-broad-spectrum β-lactamases. The positive rates of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) culture and blood culture were 32.2% (515/1 598) and 25.0% (400/1 598), while 38.2% (126/330)and 25.3% (21/83) in CSF metagenomics next generation sequencing and Streptococcus pneumoniae antigen detection. There were 4.3% (32/790) cases of which CSF white blood cell counts were normal in etiology confirmed group. Among 1 610 children with ABM, main intracranial imaging complications were subdural effusion and (or) empyema in 349 cases (21.7%), hydrocephalus in 233 cases (14.5%), brain abscess in 178 cases (11.1%), and other cerebrovascular diseases, including encephalomalacia, cerebral infarction, and encephalatrophy, in 174 cases (10.8%). Among the 166 cases (10.3%) with unfavorable outcome, 32 cases (2.0%) died among whom 24 cases died before 1 year of age, and 37 cases (2.3%) had recurrence among whom 25 cases had recurrence within 3 weeks. The incidences of subdural effusion and (or) empyema, brain abscess and ependymitis in the etiology confirmed group were significantly higher than those in the clinically diagnosed group (26.2% (207/790) vs. 17.3% (142/820), 13.0% (103/790) vs. 9.1% (75/820), 4.6% (36/790) vs. 2.7% (22/820), χ²=18.71, 6.20, 4.07, all P<0.05), but there was no significant difference in the unfavorable outcomes, mortility, and recurrence between these 2 groups (all P>0.05). Conclusions: The onset age of ABM in children is usually within 1 year of age, especially <3 months. The common pathogens in infants <3 months of age are Escherichia coli and Streptococcus agalactiae, and the dominant pathogen in infant ≥3 months is Streptococcus pneumoniae. Subdural effusion and (or) empyema and hydrocephalus are common complications. ABM should not be excluded even if CSF white blood cell counts is within normal range. Standardized bacteriological examination should be paid more attention to increase the pathogenic detection rate. Non-culture CSF detection methods may facilitate the pathogenic diagnosis.