[Long-term mortality risk of valvular heart disease adults over 35 years old in Chinese communities]

Objective: To investigate the risk and influencing factors of long-term mortality of valvular heart disease (VHD) adults aged 35 years and over in Chinese communities. Methods: A cohort study was carried out. The data of the subjects who underwent echocardiography were collected from the Chinese Hypertension Survey between 2012 and 2015 and survival outcomes were followed up between 2018 and 2019. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were plotted and compared using log-rank test. Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the influence of VHD on mortality. Results: During an average follow-up time of (4.6±0.9) years, a total of 23 237 participants (10 881 males and 12 356 females) were pooled into the final analysis from 5 eastern, 5 central, and 4 western provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China, with a mean age of (56.9±13.2) years. Among the included participants, 1 004 had VHD (467 males and 537 females), with a mean age was of (68.1±12.6) years. In the Kaplan-Meier analysis, participants with VHD had a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality (log-rank χ²=351.82, P<0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (log-rank χ²=284.14, P<0.001) compared with those without VHD. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that compared with those without VHD, the participants with rheumatic VHD had a 45% increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR=1.45, 95%CI: 1.12-1.89) and degenerative VHD increased the risk of cardiovascular mortality by 69% (HR=1.69, 95%CI: 1.19-2.38). The risk factors of cardiovascular mortality for VHD were age 55 years and over (55-<75 years: HR=4.93, 95%CI: 1.17-20.85;≥75 years: HR=11.92, 95%CI: 2.85-49.80) and diabetes mellitus (HR=1.71, 95%CI: 1.00-2.93). Conclusions: VHD is a risk factor of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality among adults aged 35 years and over. Age 55 years and over and diabetes mellitus are adverse prognostic factors for patients with VHD.