Risk stratification and prognosis in pulmonary arterial hypertension: the Singapore experience

Funding Acknowledgements

Type of funding sources: None.

Aims & Background: Guidelines recommend the risk stratification of patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) at baseline and on follow-up, so as to guide the management and titration of therapy in these patients.  This approach has been validated in various pulmonary hypertension registries in the West.  We aim to study the value of risk stratification on the prognosis of PAH patients in Asia.

Methods

A retrospective review of all PAH patients from 2002 to 2018 from a single tertiary cardiac centre was performed. Inclusion criteria was the availability of both initial visit and follow-up data. Patients were classified into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups in both initial and follow-up visits based on the variables in the 2015 ESC/ERS PH risk stratification table  according to the "score and average" method used by SPAHR and COMPERA registries (total score divided by number of variables assessed and rounded to nearest integer). An average score of 1, 2 and 3 was defined as low, medium and high risk respectively. The primary outcomes was all-cause mortality.

Results

 A total of 102 patients (mean age 57 ± 18 years old, 82 females) were included. Survival was significantly affected by PAH subtype and risk profile. On multivariate analysis, baseline risk did not impact on mortality. Follow-up risk stage impacted on prognosis, with significantly poorer prognosis noted in both intermediate- (adj HR 3.12, 95% CI 1.03 – 9.48, p = 0.045) and high-risk (adj HR = 7.84, 95% CI 2.22 – 27.64, p = 0.001) groups. Patients who improved their risk groups to low risk on follow-up had  similar survival to stable low-risk patients, but those patients whose risk group worsened on follow-up had significantly worse prognosis (adj HR = 5.44, 95% CI 1.26 – 13.75, p = 0.02).

Conclusion

Risk stratification is useful in prognosticating Asian PAH patients. There is potential survival benefit in optimising treatment to achieve a low-risk profile.