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Martín-Rodríguez F, Vaquerizo-Villar F, López-Izquierdo R, Castro-Villamor MA, Sanz-García A, Del Pozo-Vegas C, Hornero R. Derivation and validation of a blood biomarker score for 2-day mortality prediction from prehospital care: a multicenter, cohort, EMS-based study. Intern Emerg Med 2023; 18:1797-1806. [PMID: 37079244 PMCID: PMC10116443 DOI: 10.1007/s11739-023-03268-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2022] [Accepted: 03/31/2023] [Indexed: 04/21/2023]
Abstract
Identifying potentially life-threatening diseases is a key challenge for emergency medical services. This study aims at examining the role of different prehospital biomarkers from point-of-care testing to derive and validate a score to detect 2-day in-hospital mortality. We conducted a prospective, observational, prehospital, ongoing, and derivation-validation study in three Spanish provinces, in adults evacuated by ambulance and admitted to the emergency department. A total of 23 ambulance-based biomarkers were collected from each patient. A biomarker score based on logistic regression was fitted to predict 2-day mortality from an optimum subset of variables from prehospital blood analysis, obtained through an automated feature selection stage. 2806 cases were analyzed, with a median age of 68 (interquartile range 51-81), 42.3% of women, and a 2-day mortality rate of 5.5% (154 non-survivors). The blood biomarker score was constituted by the partial pressure of carbon dioxide, lactate, and creatinine. The score fitted with logistic regression using these biomarkers reached a high performance to predict 2-day mortality, with an AUC of 0.933 (95% CI 0.841-0.973). The following risk levels for 2-day mortality were identified from the score: low risk (score < 1), where only 8.2% of non-survivors were assigned to; medium risk (1 ≤ score < 4); and high risk (score ≥ 4), where the 2-day mortality rate was 57.6%. The novel blood biomarker score provides an excellent association with 2-day in-hospital mortality, as well as real-time feedback on the metabolic-respiratory patient status. Thus, this score can help in the decision-making process at critical moments in life-threatening situations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francisco Martín-Rodríguez
- Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
- Advanced Life Support, Emergency Medical Services (SACYL), Valladolid, Spain
- Prehospital Early Warning Scoring-System Investigation Group, Valladolid, Spain
| | - Fernando Vaquerizo-Villar
- Biomedical Engineering Group, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Valladolid, Av. Ramón y Cajal, 7, 47003, Valladolid, Spain.
- CIBER-BBN, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Bioingeniería, Biomateriales y Nanomedicina, Valladolid, Spain.
| | - Raúl López-Izquierdo
- Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
- Prehospital Early Warning Scoring-System Investigation Group, Valladolid, Spain
- Emergency Department, Hospital Universitario Rio Hortega, Valladolid, Spain
| | - Miguel A Castro-Villamor
- Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
- Prehospital Early Warning Scoring-System Investigation Group, Valladolid, Spain
| | - Ancor Sanz-García
- Prehospital Early Warning Scoring-System Investigation Group, Valladolid, Spain
- Health Research Institute, Hospital de la Princesa, Madrid (IIS-IP), Spain
| | - Carlos Del Pozo-Vegas
- Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
- Prehospital Early Warning Scoring-System Investigation Group, Valladolid, Spain
- Emergency Department, Hospital Clínico Universitario, Valladolid, Spain
| | - Roberto Hornero
- Biomedical Engineering Group, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Valladolid, Av. Ramón y Cajal, 7, 47003, Valladolid, Spain
- CIBER-BBN, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red en Bioingeniería, Biomateriales y Nanomedicina, Valladolid, Spain
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