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Le TP, Abell I, Conway E, Campbell PT, Hogan AB, Lydeamore MJ, McVernon J, Mueller I, Walker CR, Baker CM. Modelling the impact of hybrid immunity on future COVID-19 epidemic waves. BMC Infect Dis 2024; 24:407. [PMID: 38627637 PMCID: PMC11020923 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-024-09282-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2023] [Accepted: 04/02/2024] [Indexed: 04/19/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), there have been multiple waves of infection and multiple rounds of vaccination rollouts. Both prior infection and vaccination can prevent future infection and reduce severity of outcomes, combining to form hybrid immunity against COVID-19 at the individual and population level. Here, we explore how different combinations of hybrid immunity affect the size and severity of near-future Omicron waves. METHODS To investigate the role of hybrid immunity, we use an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission with waning immunity to simulate outbreaks in populations with varied past attack rates and past vaccine coverages, basing the demographics and past histories on the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region. RESULTS We find that if the past infection immunity is high but vaccination levels are low, then the secondary outbreak with the same variant can occur within a few months after the first outbreak; meanwhile, high vaccination levels can suppress near-term outbreaks and delay the second wave. Additionally, hybrid immunity has limited impact on future COVID-19 waves with immune-escape variants. CONCLUSIONS Enhanced understanding of the interplay between infection and vaccine exposure can aid anticipation of future epidemic activity due to current and emergent variants, including the likely impact of responsive vaccine interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thao P Le
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Grattan Street, Melbourne, 3010, Victoria, Australia.
- Melbourne Centre for Data Science, The University of Melbourne, Grattan Street, Melbourne, 3010, Victoria, Australia.
- Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, The University of Melbourne, Grattan Street, Melbourne, 3010, Victoria, Australia.
| | - Isobel Abell
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Grattan Street, Melbourne, 3010, Victoria, Australia
- Melbourne Centre for Data Science, The University of Melbourne, Grattan Street, Melbourne, 3010, Victoria, Australia
| | - Eamon Conway
- Population Health & Immunity Division, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, 1G Royal Parade, Melbourne, 3052, Victoria, Australia
| | - Patricia T Campbell
- Department of Infectious Diseases at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The University of Melbourne, 792 Elizabeth St, Melbourne, 3000, Victoria, Australia
- Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Bouverie St, Carlton, 3053, Victoria, Australia
| | - Alexandra B Hogan
- School of Population Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 2033, New South Wales, Australia
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
| | - Michael J Lydeamore
- Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Wellington Road, Melbourne, 3800, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jodie McVernon
- Department of Infectious Diseases at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, The University of Melbourne, 792 Elizabeth St, Melbourne, 3000, Victoria, Australia
- Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory Epidemiology Unit, The Royal Melbourne Hospital at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, 792 Elizabeth St, Melbourne, 3000, Victoria, Australia
| | - Ivo Mueller
- Population Health & Immunity Division, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, 1G Royal Parade, Melbourne, 3052, Victoria, Australia
- Department of Medical Biology, The University of Melbourne, Grattan Street, Melbourne, 3010, Victoria, Australia
| | - Camelia R Walker
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Grattan Street, Melbourne, 3010, Victoria, Australia
| | - Christopher M Baker
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Grattan Street, Melbourne, 3010, Victoria, Australia
- Melbourne Centre for Data Science, The University of Melbourne, Grattan Street, Melbourne, 3010, Victoria, Australia
- Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, The University of Melbourne, Grattan Street, Melbourne, 3010, Victoria, Australia
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