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Sobiecki JG, Imamura F, Davis CR, Sharp SJ, Koulman A, Hodgson JM, Guevara M, Schulze MB, Zheng JS, Agnoli C, Bonet C, Colorado-Yohar SM, Fagherazzi G, Franks PW, Gundersen TE, Jannasch F, Kaaks R, Katzke V, Molina-Montes E, Nilsson PM, Palli D, Panico S, Papier K, Rolandsson O, Sacerdote C, Tjønneland A, Tong TYN, van der Schouw YT, Danesh J, Butterworth AS, Riboli E, Murphy KJ, Wareham NJ, Forouhi NG. A nutritional biomarker score of the Mediterranean diet and incident type 2 diabetes: Integrated analysis of data from the MedLey randomised controlled trial and the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study. PLoS Med 2023; 20:e1004221. [PMID: 37104291 PMCID: PMC10138823 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2022] [Accepted: 03/15/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Self-reported adherence to the Mediterranean diet has been modestly inversely associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in cohort studies. There is uncertainty about the validity and magnitude of this association due to subjective reporting of diet. The association has not been evaluated using an objectively measured biomarker of the Mediterranean diet. METHODS AND FINDINGS We derived a biomarker score based on 5 circulating carotenoids and 24 fatty acids that discriminated between the Mediterranean or habitual diet arms of a parallel design, 6-month partial-feeding randomised controlled trial (RCT) conducted between 2013 and 2014, the MedLey trial (128 participants out of 166 randomised). We applied this biomarker score in an observational study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, to assess the association of the score with T2D incidence over an average of 9.7 years of follow-up since the baseline (1991 to 1998). We included 22,202 participants, of whom 9,453 were T2D cases, with relevant biomarkers from an original case-cohort of 27,779 participants sampled from a cohort of 340,234 people. As a secondary measure of the Mediterranean diet, we used a score estimated from dietary-self report. Within the trial, the biomarker score discriminated well between the 2 arms; the cross-validated C-statistic was 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 0.94). The score was inversely associated with incident T2D in EPIC-InterAct: the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation of the score was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.77) following adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle and medical factors, and adiposity. In comparison, the HR per standard deviation of the self-reported Mediterranean diet was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.95). Assuming the score was causally associated with T2D, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet in Western European adults by 10 percentiles of the score was estimated to reduce the incidence of T2D by 11% (95% CI: 7% to 14%). The study limitations included potential measurement error in nutritional biomarkers, unclear specificity of the biomarker score to the Mediterranean diet, and possible residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that objectively assessed adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with lower risk of T2D and that even modestly higher adherence may have the potential to reduce the population burden of T2D meaningfully. TRIAL REGISTRATION Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12613000602729 https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=363860.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jakub G. Sobiecki
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Fumiaki Imamura
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Courtney R. Davis
- Alliance for Research in Exercise, Nutrition and Activity, UniSA Clinical and Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Stephen J. Sharp
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Albert Koulman
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Nutritional Biomarker Laboratory, National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre, School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Jonathan M. Hodgson
- Nutrition & Health Innovation Research Institute, School of Medical and Health Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, Australia
- Medical School, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia
| | - Marcela Guevara
- Navarra Public Health Institute, Pamplona, Spain
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Navarra Institute for Health Research (IdiSNA), Pamplona, Spain
| | - Matthias B. Schulze
- Department of Molecular Epidemiology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Nuthetal, Germany
- German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munich-Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute of Nutritional Science, University of Potsdam, Nuthetal, Germany
| | - Ju-Sheng Zheng
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Key Laboratory of Growth Regulation and Translation Research of Zhejiang Province, School of Life Sciences, Westlake University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Claudia Agnoli
- Epidemiology and Prevention Unit, Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori di Milano, Milano, Italy
| | - Catalina Bonet
- Unit of Nutrition and Cancer, Catalan Institute of Oncology—ICO, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain
- Nutrition and Cancer Group, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute—IDIBELL, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Sandra M. Colorado-Yohar
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Department of Epidemiology, Murcia Regional Health Council, IMIB-Arrixaca, Murcia, Spain
- Research Group on Demography and Health, National Faculty of Public Health, University of Antioquia, Medellín, Colombia
| | - Guy Fagherazzi
- Deep Digital Phenotyping Research Unit, Department of Precision Health, Luxembourg Insitute of Health, Strassen, Luxembourg
- Center of Epidemiology and Population Health UMR 1018, Inserm, Paris South—Paris Saclay University, Gustave Roussy Institute, Villejuif, France
| | - Paul W. Franks
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
| | | | - Franziska Jannasch
- Department of Molecular Epidemiology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Nuthetal, Germany
- German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Munich-Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Rudolf Kaaks
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Verena Katzke
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Esther Molina-Montes
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Institute of Nutrition and Food Technology (INYTA) ‘José Mataix’, Biomedical Research Centre, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
- Instituto de Investigación Biosanitaria ibs.GRANADA, Granada, Spain
- Department of Nutrition and Food Science, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
| | | | - Domenico Palli
- Cancer Risk Factors and Life-Style Epidemiology Unit, Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network—ISPRO, Florence, Italy
| | - Salvatore Panico
- Department of Mental, Physical Health and Preventive Medicine, University “L. Vanvitelli”, Naples, Italy
| | - Keren Papier
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Olov Rolandsson
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Family Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Carlotta Sacerdote
- Unit of Cancer Epidemiology, Città della Salute e della Scienza University-Hospital, Turin, Italy
| | - Anne Tjønneland
- Danish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Tammy Y. N. Tong
- Department of Mental, Physical Health and Preventive Medicine, University “L. Vanvitelli”, Naples, Italy
| | - Yvonne T. van der Schouw
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - John Danesh
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- British Heart Foundation Cambridge Centre of Excellence, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Addenbrooke’s Hospital, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Department of Human Genetics, Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, Hinxton, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Health Data Research UK Cambridge, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Adam S. Butterworth
- BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Genomics, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Elio Riboli
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Karen J. Murphy
- Alliance for Research in Exercise, Nutrition and Activity, UniSA Clinical and Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Nicholas J. Wareham
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Nita G. Forouhi
- MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, United Kingdom
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