Development and validation of a cuproptosis-related prognostic model for acute myeloid leukemia patients using machine learning with stacking

Our objective is to develop a prognostic model focused on cuproptosis, aimed at predicting overall survival (OS) outcomes among Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients. The model utilized machine learning algorithms incorporating stacking. The GSE37642 dataset was used as the training data, and the GSE12417 and TCGA-LAML cohorts were used as the validation data. Stacking was used to merge the three prediction models, subsequently using a random survival forests algorithm to refit the final model using the stacking linear predictor and clinical factors. The prediction model, featuring stacking linear predictor and clinical factors, achieved AUC values of 0.840, 0.876 and 0.892 at 1, 2 and 3 years within the GSE37642 dataset. In external validation dataset, the corresponding AUCs were 0.741, 0.754 and 0.783. The predictive performance of the model in the external dataset surpasses that of the model simply incorporates all predictors. Additionally, the final model exhibited good calibration accuracy. In conclusion, our findings indicate that the novel prediction model refines the prognostic prediction for AML patients, while the stacking strategy displays potential for model integration.