Why the 2022 Po River drought is the worst in the past two centuries

The causes of recent hydrological droughts and their future evolution under a changing climate are still poorly understood. Banking on a 216-year river flow time series at the Po River outlet, we show that the 2022 hydrological drought is the worst event (30% lower than the second worst, with a six-century return period), part of an increasing trend in severe drought occurrence. The decline in summer river flows (-4.14 cubic meters per second per year), which is more relevant than the precipitation decline, is attributed to a combination of changes in the precipitation regime, resulting in a decline of snow fraction (-0.6% per year) and snowmelt (-0.18 millimeters per day per year), and to increasing evaporation rate (+0.013 cubic kilometers per year) and irrigated areas (100% increment from 1900). Our study presents a compelling case where the hydrological impact of climate change is exacerbated by local changes in hydrologic seasonality and water use.

Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments

The United Nations Paris Agreement creates a specific need to compare consequences of cumulative emissions for pledged national commitments and aspirational targets of 1.5° to 2°C global warming. We find that humans have already increased the probability of historically unprecedented hot, warm, wet, and dry extremes, including over 50 to 90% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. Emissions consistent with national commitments are likely to cause substantial and widespread additional increases, including more than fivefold for warmest night over ~50% of Europe and >25% of East Asia and more than threefold for wettest days over >35% of North America, Europe, and East Asia. In contrast, meeting aspirational targets to keep global warming below 2°C reduces the area experiencing more than threefold increases to <10% of most regions studied. However, large areas-including >90% of North America, Europe, East Asia, and much of the tropics-still exhibit sizable increases in the probability of record-setting hot, wet, and/or dry events.

The burrowing origin of modern snakes

Modern snakes probably originated as habitat specialists, but it controversial unclear whether they were ancestrally terrestrial burrowers or marine swimmers. We used x-ray virtual models of the inner ear to predict the habit of Dinilysia patagonica, a stem snake closely related to the origin of modern snakes. Previous work has shown that modern snakes perceive substrate vibrations via their inner ear. Our data show that D. patagonica and modern burrowing squamates share a unique spherical vestibule in the inner ear, as compared with swimmers and habitat generalists. We built predictive models for snake habit based on their vestibular shape, which estimated D. patagonica and the hypothetical ancestor of crown snakes as burrowers with high probabilities. This study provides an extensive comparative data set to test fossoriality quantitatively in stem snakes, and it shows that burrowing was predominant in the lineages leading to modern crown snakes.