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Porter N, Laheru D, Lau B, He J, Zheng L, Narang A, Roberts NJ, Canto MI, Lennon AM, Goggins MG, Hruban RH, Klein AP. Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in the Long-Term Prospective Follow-Up of Familial Pancreatic Cancer Kindreds. J Natl Cancer Inst 2022; 114:1681-1688. [PMID: 36029239 PMCID: PMC9745433 DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djac167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2022] [Revised: 06/27/2022] [Accepted: 08/25/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND A family history of pancreatic cancer is associated with increased pancreatic cancer risk. However, risk estimates for individuals in kindreds with an aggregation of pancreatic cancer (>1 relative) are imprecise because of small samples sizes or potentially impacted by biases inherent in retrospective data. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to determine the age-specific pancreatic cancer risk as a function of family history using prospective data. METHODS We compared pancreatic cancer incidence (n = 167) in 21 141 individuals from 4433 families enrolled in the National Familial Pancreatic Cancer Registry with that expected based on Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results data and estimated the cumulative probability of pancreatic cancer using competing risk regression. RESULTS Familial pancreatic kindred members (kindreds with pancreatic cancer in 2 first-degree relatives [FDRs] or a pathogenic variant) had a standardized incidence ratio of 4.86 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.01 to 5.90), and sporadic kindred members (kindreds not meeting familial criteria) had a standardized incidence ratio of 2.55 (95% CI = 1.95 to 3.34). Risk in familial pancreatic cancer kindreds increased with an increasing number of FDRs with pancreatic cancer, with a standardized incidence ratio of 3.46 (95% CI = 2.52 to 4.76), 5.44 (95% CI = 4.07 to 7.26), and 10.78 (95% CI = 6.87 to 16.89) for 1, 2, and 3 or more FDRs with pancreatic cancer, respectively. Risk was also higher among individuals with a family history of young-onset (aged younger than 50 years) pancreatic cancer. CONCLUSION Pancreatic cancer risk is strongly dependent on family history, including both the degree of relationship(s) and age of onset of pancreatic cancer in relatives. These risk estimates will help inform the design of early detection studies and the risk and benefit analysis of screening trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nancy Porter
- Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Daniel Laheru
- Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Bryan Lau
- Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Jin He
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Lei Zheng
- Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Amol Narang
- Division of Radiation Oncology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Nicholas J Roberts
- Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- The Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Marcia I Canto
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Anne Marie Lennon
- Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Department of Surgery, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Division of Radiation Oncology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- The Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Michael G Goggins
- Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- The Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Ralph H Hruban
- Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- The Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Alison P Klein
- Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, Department of Oncology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
- The Sol Goldman Pancreatic Cancer Research Center, Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
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