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Henderson HI, Wohl DA, Fischer WA, Bartelt LA, van Duin D, Agil DM, Browne LE, Li KP, Moy A, Eron JJ, Napravnik S. COVID-19 hospitalization risk after outpatient nirmatrelvir/ritonavir use, January to August 2022, North Carolina. J Antimicrob Chemother 2024; 79:859-867. [PMID: 38380946 PMCID: PMC10984939 DOI: 10.1093/jac/dkae042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2023] [Accepted: 01/27/2024] [Indexed: 02/22/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the USA, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir is authorized for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in patients at least 12 years of age, at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19. OBJECTIVES To estimate the impact of outpatient nirmatrelvir/ritonavir on COVID-19 hospitalization risk in a US healthcare system. METHODS We conducted a cohort study using electronic health records among outpatients with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test between January and August 2022. We evaluated the association of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir therapy with time to hospitalization by estimating adjusted HRs and assessed the impact of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir on predicted COVID-19 hospitalizations using machine-learning methods. RESULTS Among 44 671 patients, 4948 (11%) received nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and 201 (0.4%) were hospitalized within 28 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients were more likely to be older, white, vaccinated, have comorbidities and reside in areas with higher average socioeconomic status. The 28 day cumulative incidence of hospitalization was 0.06% (95% CI: 0.02%-0.17%) among nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients and 0.52% (95% CI: 0.46%-0.60%) among non-recipients. For nirmatrelvir/ritonavir versus no therapy, the age-adjusted HR was 0.08 (95% CI: 0.03-0.26); the fully adjusted HR was 0.16 (95% CI: 0.05-0.50). In the machine-learning model, the primary features reducing predicted hospitalization risk were nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, younger age, vaccination, female gender and residence in a higher socioeconomic status area. CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 hospitalization risk was reduced by 84% among nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients in a large, diverse healthcare system during the Omicron wave. These results suggest that nirmatrelvir/ritonavir remained highly effective in a setting substantially different than the original clinical trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather I Henderson
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Medicine, 130 Mason Farm Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - David A Wohl
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Medicine, 130 Mason Farm Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - William A Fischer
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Medicine, 130 Mason Farm Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Luther A Bartelt
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Medicine, 130 Mason Farm Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - David van Duin
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Medicine, 130 Mason Farm Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Deana M Agil
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Medicine, 130 Mason Farm Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Lindsay E Browne
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Medicine, 130 Mason Farm Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Kuo-Ping Li
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Medicine, 130 Mason Farm Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Amanda Moy
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Medicine, 130 Mason Farm Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Joseph J Eron
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Medicine, 130 Mason Farm Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
| | - Sonia Napravnik
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, School of Medicine, 130 Mason Farm Road, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA
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