Confounding factors and biases involved in regional differences in the detection rate of thyroid cancer in the second-round Thyroid Ultrasound Examination: the Fukushima Health Management Survey

In response to concerns about health due to radiation exposure, the Fukushima Prefecture launched the Thyroid Ultrasound Examination program for residents aged 0-18 years at the time of the earthquake. Herein, we considered the confounding factors involved in the regional differences in the development of thyroid cancer. In this study, the 242 065 individuals who participated in both first- and second-round surveys were classified into four groups by address according to their air radiation dose. The number of participants diagnosed as malignant or suspicious for malignancy by cytological examination were 17, 38, 10 and 4 with detection rates of 53.8, 27.8, 21.7 and 14.5 per 100 000 participants in Regions 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Sex (P = 0.0400), age at the time of the primary examination (P < 0.0001) and interval between the first- and second-round surveys (P < 0.0001) were significantly different among the four regions, and these were suspected to be confounding factors affecting regional differences in malignant nodule detection rates. In addition, significant regional differences were observed in the participation rate in the confirmatory examination (P = 0.0037) and the fine needle aspiration cytology implementation rate (P = 0.0037), which could be potential biases. No significant regional differences in the detection of malignant nodules were found in the multivariate logistic regression analysis after adjusting for the survey interval alone or for sex, age and survey interval. The confounding factors and biases identified in this study that may have important impacts on thyroid cancer detection rate should be fully considered in future studies.