Spatio-temporal prediction model of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: Designation of medical priorities and estimation of human resources requirement

Aims

To determine the out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) rates and occurrences at municipality level through a novel statistical model accounting for temporal and spatial heterogeneity, space-time interactions and demographic features. We also aimed to predict OHCAs rates and number at municipality level for the upcoming years estimating the related resources requirement.

Methods

All the consecutive OHCAs of presumed cardiac origin occurred from 2005 until 2018 in Canton Ticino region were included. We implemented an Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation statistical method for estimation and prediction of municipality OHCA rates, number of events and related uncertainties, using age and sex municipality compositions. Comparisons between predicted and real OHCA maps validated our model, whilst comparisons between estimated OHCA rates in different yeas and municipalities identified significantly different OHCA rates over space and time. Longer-time predicted OHCA maps provided Bayesian predictions of OHCA coverages in varying stressful conditions.

Results

2344 OHCAs were analyzed. OHCA incidence either progressively reduced or continuously increased over time in 6.8% of municipalities despite an overall stable spatio-temporal distribution of OHCAs. The predicted number of OHCAs accounts for 89% (2017) and 90% (2018) of the yearly variability of observed OHCAs with prediction error ≤1OHCA for each year in most municipalities. An increase in OHCAs number with a decline in the Automatic External Defibrillator availability per OHCA at region was estimated.

Conclusions

Our method enables prediction of OHCA risk at municipality level with high accuracy, providing a novel approach to estimate resource allocation and anticipate gaps in demand in upcoming years.

Cost-minimization analysis of three decision strategies for cardiac revascularization: results of the "suspected CAD" cohort of the european cardiovascular magnetic resonance registry

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease (CAD) continues to be one of the top public health burden. Perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is generally accepted to detect CAD, while data on its cost effectiveness are scarce. Therefore, the goal of the study was to compare the costs of a CMR-guided strategy vs two invasive strategies in a large CMR registry.

METHODS

In 3'647 patients with suspected CAD of the EuroCMR-registry (59 centers/18 countries) costs were calculated for diagnostic examinations (CMR, X-ray coronary angiography (CXA) with/without FFR), revascularizations, and complications during a 1-year follow-up. Patients with ischemia-positive CMR underwent an invasive CXA and revascularization at the discretion of the treating physician (=CMR + CXA-strategy). In the hypothetical invasive arm, costs were calculated for an initial CXA and a FFR in vessels with ≥50% stenoses (=CXA + FFR-strategy) and the same proportion of revascularizations and complications were applied as in the CMR + CXA-strategy. In the CXA-only strategy, costs included those for CXA and for revascularizations of all ≥50% stenoses. To calculate the proportion of patients with ≥50% stenoses, the stenosis-FFR relationship from the literature was used. Costs of the three strategies were determined based on a third payer perspective in 4 healthcare systems.

RESULTS

Revascularizations were performed in 6.2%, 4.5%, and 12.9% of all patients, patients with atypical chest pain (n = 1'786), and typical angina (n = 582), respectively; whereas complications (=all-cause death and non-fatal infarction) occurred in 1.3%, 1.1%, and 1.5%, respectively. The CMR + CXA-strategy reduced costs by 14%, 34%, 27%, and 24% in the German, UK, Swiss, and US context, respectively, when compared to the CXA + FFR-strategy; and by 59%, 52%, 61% and 71%, respectively, versus the CXA-only strategy. In patients with typical angina, cost savings by CMR + CXA vs CXA + FFR were minimal in the German (2.3%), intermediate in the US and Swiss (11.6% and 12.8%, respectively), and remained substantial in the UK (18.9%) systems. Sensitivity analyses proved the robustness of results.

CONCLUSIONS

A CMR + CXA-strategy for patients with suspected CAD provides substantial cost reduction compared to a hypothetical CXA + FFR-strategy in patients with low to intermediate disease prevalence. However, in the subgroup of patients with typical angina, cost savings were only minimal to moderate.