1
|
Ye XQ, Cai J, Yu Q, Cao XC, Chen Y, Rao MX, Chen BL, He Y, Zeng ZR, Chen H, Lin YM, Cao Q, Chen MH, Zhang SH. Nomogram to predict primary non-response to infliximab in patients with Crohn's disease: a multicenter study. Gastroenterol Rep (Oxf) 2021; 9:329-338. [PMID: 34567565 PMCID: PMC8460115 DOI: 10.1093/gastro/goaa069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2020] [Revised: 03/27/2020] [Accepted: 04/16/2020] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Infliximab (IFX) is effective at inducing and maintaining clinical remission and mucosal healing in patients with Crohn's disease (CD); however, 9%-40% of patients do not respond to primary IFX treatment. This study aimed to construct and validate nomograms to predict IFX response in CD patients. METHODS A total of 343 patients diagnosed with CD who had received IFX induction from four tertiary centers between September 2008 and September 2019 were enrolled in this study and randomly classified into a training cohort (n = 240) and a validation cohort (n = 103). The primary outcome was primary non-response (PNR) and the secondary outcome was mucosal healing (MH). Nomograms were constructed from the training cohort using multivariate logistic regression. Performance of nomograms was evaluated by area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curve. The clinical usefulness of nomograms was evaluated by decision-curve analysis. RESULTS The nomogram for PNR was developed based on four independent predictors: age, C-reactive protein (CRP) at week 2, body mass index, and non-stricturing, non-penetrating behavior (B1). AUC was 0.77 in the training cohort and 0.76 in the validation cohort. The nomogram for MH included four independent factors: baseline Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity, CRP at week 2, B1, and disease duration. AUC was 0.79 and 0.72 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The two nomograms showed good calibration in both cohorts and were superior to single factors and an existing matrix model. The decision curve indicated the clinical usefulness of the PNR nomogram. CONCLUSIONS We established and validated nomograms for the prediction of PNR to IFX and MH in CD patients. This graphical tool is easy to use and will assist physicians in therapeutic decision-making.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Xiao-Qi Ye
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - Jing Cai
- Department of Gastroenterology, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, P. R. China
- Department of Gastroenterology, Wenzhou Central Hospital, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, P. R. China
| | - Qiao Yu
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, P. R. China
| | - Xiao-Cang Cao
- Department of Gastroenterology, Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, P. R. China
| | - Yan Chen
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, P. R. China
| | - Mei-Xin Rao
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - Bai-Li Chen
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - Yao He
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - Zhi-Rong Zeng
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - Hao Chen
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, P. R. China
| | - Yi-Mou Lin
- Department of Gastroenterology, the Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, P. R. China
| | - Qian Cao
- Department of Gastroenterology, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, P. R. China
| | - Min-Hu Chen
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| | - Sheng-Hong Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China
| |
Collapse
|