Utility of surveillance data for planning for dengue elimination in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: a scenario-tree modelling approach

INTRODUCTION

Field trials and modelling studies suggest that elimination of dengue transmission may be possible through widespread release of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the insect bacterium Wolbachia pipientis (wMel strain), in conjunction with routine dengue control activities. This study aimed to develop a modelling framework to guide planning for the potential elimination of locally acquired dengue in Yogyakarta, a city of almost 400 000 people in Java, Indonesia.

METHODS

A scenario-tree modelling approach was used to estimate the sensitivity of the dengue surveillance system (including routine hospital-based reporting and primary-care-based enhanced surveillance), and time required to demonstrate elimination of locally acquired dengue in Yogyakarta city, assuming the detected incidence of dengue decreases to zero in the future. Age and gender were included as risk factors for dengue, and detection nodes included the probability of seeking care, probability of sample collection and testing, diagnostic test sensitivity and probability of case notification. Parameter distributions were derived from health system data or estimated by expert opinion. Alternative simulations were defined based on changes to key parameter values, separately and in combination.

RESULTS

For the default simulation, median surveillance system sensitivity was 0.131 (95% PI 0.111 to 0.152) per month. Median confidence in dengue elimination reached 80% after a minimum of 13 months of zero detected dengue cases and 90% confidence after 25 months, across different scenarios. The alternative simulations investigated produced relatively small changes in median system sensitivity and time to elimination.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that with a combination of hospital-based surveillance and enhanced clinic-based surveillance for dengue, an acceptable level of confidence (80% probability) in the elimination of locally acquired dengue can be reached within 2 years. Increasing the surveillance system sensitivity could shorten the time to first ascertainment of elimination of dengue and increase the level of confidence in elimination.

Increased H3K27 trimethylation contributes to cone survival in a mouse model of cone dystrophy

Inherited retinal diseases (IRDs) are a heterogeneous group of blinding disorders, which result in dysfunction or death of the light-sensing cone and rod photoreceptors. Despite individual IRDs (Inherited retinal disease) being rare, collectively, they affect up to 1:2000 people worldwide, causing a significant socioeconomic burden, especially when cone-mediated central vision is affected. This study uses the Pde6c^cpfl1 mouse model of achromatopsia, a cone-specific vision loss IRD (Inherited retinal disease), to investigate the potential gene-independent therapeutic benefits of a histone demethylase inhibitor GSK-J4 on cone cell survival. We investigated the effects of GSK-J4 treatment on cone cell survival in vivo and ex vivo and changes in cone-specific gene expression via single-cell RNA sequencing. A single intravitreal GSK-J4 injection led to transcriptional changes in pathways involved in mitochondrial dysfunction, endoplasmic reticulum stress, among other key epigenetic pathways, highlighting the complex interplay between methylation and acetylation in healthy and diseased cones. Furthermore, continuous administration of GSK-J4 in retinal explants increased cone survival. Our results suggest that IRD (Inherited retinal disease)-affected cones respond positively to epigenetic modulation of histones, indicating the potential of this approach in developing a broad class of novel therapies to slow cone degeneration.

Aedes aegypti abundance and insecticide resistance profiles in the Applying Wolbachia to Eliminate Dengue trial

The Applying Wolbachia to Eliminate Dengue (AWED) trial was a parallel cluster randomised trial that demonstrated Wolbachia (wMel) introgression into Ae. aegypti populations reduced dengue incidence. In this predefined substudy, we compared between treatment arms, the relative abundance of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus before, during and after wMel-introgression. Between March 2015 and March 2020, 60,084 BG trap collections yielded 478,254 Ae. aegypti and 17,623 Ae. albopictus. Between treatment arms there was no measurable difference in Ae. aegypti relative abundance before or after wMel-deployments, with a count ratio of 0.96 (95% CI 0.76, 1.21) and 1.00 (95% CI 0.85, 1.17) respectively. More Ae. aegypti were caught per trap per week in the wMel-intervention arm compared to the control arm during wMel deployments (count ratio 1.23 (95% CI 1.03, 1.46)). Between treatment arms there was no measurable difference in the Ae. albopictus population size before, during or after wMel-deployment (overall count ratio 1.10 (95% CI 0.89, 1.35)). We also compared insecticide resistance phenotypes of Ae. aegypti in the first and second years after wMel-deployments. Ae. aegypti field populations from wMel-treated and untreated arms were similarly resistant to malathion (0.8%), permethrin (1.25%) and cyfluthrin (0.15%) in year 1 and year 2 of the trial. In summary, we found no between-arm differences in the relative abundance of Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus prior to or after wMel introgression, and no between-arm difference in Ae. aegypti insecticide resistance phenotypes. These data suggest neither Aedes abundance, nor insecticide resistance, confounded the epidemiological outcomes of the AWED trial.

Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral disease and a major public health problem in the tropical and subtropical world. It is caused by any of the four dengue virus serotypes. In a previously published randomised clinical trial, called the AWED trial, we demonstrated that releases of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the insect bacterium Wolbachia can reduce the case incidence of dengue by 77%. In this current study, we compared the abundance of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in the neighbourhoods where Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes were released versus the untreated neighbourhoods. This was important to do so that scientists could understand the mechanism for how Wolbachia releases reduced dengue incidence. Between March 2015 and March 2020, we did not observe any differences in Ae. aegypti abundance before or after Wolbachia-deployments in the AWED trial area. There was also no difference in the abundance of the related mosquito, Ae. albopictus, before, during or after wMel-deployment. We also compared insecticide resistance characteristics amongst Ae. aegypti in the first and second years after Wolbachia -deployments and found no difference between mosquitoes from Wolbachia-treated and untreated neighbourhoods. These data suggest neither Aedes abundance, nor insecticide resistance, were confounding sources to the epidemiological outcomes of the AWED trial.