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Paredes MI, Perofsky AC, Frisbie L, Moncla LH, Roychoudhury P, Xie H, Bakhash SAM, Kong K, Arnould I, Nguyen TV, Wendm ST, Hajian P, Ellis S, Mathias PC, Greninger AL, Starita LM, Frazar CD, Ryke E, Zhong W, Gamboa L, Threlkeld M, Lee J, Stone J, McDermot E, Truong M, Shendure J, Oltean HN, Viboud C, Chu H, Müller NF, Bedford T. Local-scale phylodynamics reveal differential community impact of SARS-CoV-2 in a metropolitan US county. PLoS Pathog 2024; 20:e1012117. [PMID: 38530853 PMCID: PMC10997136 DOI: 10.1371/journal.ppat.1012117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2023] [Revised: 04/05/2024] [Accepted: 03/12/2024] [Indexed: 03/28/2024] Open
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 transmission is largely driven by heterogeneous dynamics at a local scale, leaving local health departments to design interventions with limited information. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled between February 2020 and March 2022 jointly with epidemiological and cell phone mobility data to investigate fine scale spatiotemporal SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in King County, Washington, a diverse, metropolitan US county. We applied an approximate structured coalescent approach to model transmission within and between North King County and South King County alongside the rate of outside introductions into the county. Our phylodynamic analyses reveal that following stay-at-home orders, the epidemic trajectories of North and South King County began to diverge. We find that South King County consistently had more reported and estimated cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations, and longer persistence of local viral transmission when compared to North King County, where viral importations from outside drove a larger proportion of new cases. Using mobility and demographic data, we also find that South King County experienced a more modest and less sustained reduction in mobility following stay-at-home orders than North King County, while also bearing more socioeconomic inequities that might contribute to a disproportionate burden of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Overall, our findings suggest a role for local-scale phylodynamics in understanding the heterogeneous transmission landscape.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miguel I. Paredes
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Amanda C. Perofsky
- Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Lauren Frisbie
- Washington State Department of Health, Shoreline, Washington, United States of America
| | - Louise H. Moncla
- The University of Pennsylvania, Department of Pathobiology, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Pavitra Roychoudhury
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Hong Xie
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Shah A. Mohamed Bakhash
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Kevin Kong
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Isabel Arnould
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Tien V. Nguyen
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Seffir T. Wendm
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Pooneh Hajian
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Sean Ellis
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Patrick C. Mathias
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Alexander L. Greninger
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Lea M. Starita
- Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Genome Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Chris D. Frazar
- Department of Genome Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Erica Ryke
- Department of Genome Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Weizhi Zhong
- Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Luis Gamboa
- Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Machiko Threlkeld
- Department of Genome Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Jover Lee
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Jeremy Stone
- Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Evan McDermot
- Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Melissa Truong
- Department of Genome Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Jay Shendure
- Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Genome Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Hanna N. Oltean
- Washington State Department of Health, Shoreline, Washington, United States of America
| | - Cécile Viboud
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Helen Chu
- Department of Medicine, Division of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Nicola F. Müller
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Trevor Bedford
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Department of Genome Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
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