Low Urinary Free Cortisol as a Risk Factor for Patients with Variceal Bleeding

Background and Objectives: Specificity and reliability issues of the current cortisol assessment methods lead to limitations on the accurate assessment of relative adrenal insufficiency. Although free cortisol provides a more accurate evaluation of adrenal cortisol production, the expense and time-consuming nature of these assays make them impractical for routine use. Research has, thus, focused on alternative methods, such as indirectly measuring free cortisol using Coolens' equation or directly assessing salivary cortisol concentration, which is considered a more favorable approach despite associated challenges like sampling issues and infection risks. The aim of this study was to explore correlations between 24 h urinary free cortisol (UFC), free plasma cortisol, serum total cortisol, and salivary cortisol as potential reliable indices of free cortisol in the setting of variceal bleeding. Additionally, we assessed the predictive value of UFC for 6-week mortality and 5-day treatment failure in patients with liver cirrhosis and variceal bleeding. Materials and Methods: A total of 40 outpatients with liver cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were enrolled. Free cortisol levels in serum, saliva, and urine were assessed using the electrochemiluminescence immunoassay method. For the measurement of plasma-free cortisol, a single quadrupole mass spectrometer was employed. The quantification of free cortisol was fulfilled by analyzing the signal response in the negative ESI-MS mode. Results: UFC was significantly correlated to free plasma cortisol. Negative correlations were demonstrated between UFC, the Child-Pugh (CP) score, and C reactive protein (CRP) levels. In the multivariate analysis, CP stage C was associated with 6-week mortality risk and portal vein thrombosis with 5-day treatment failure using Cox regression and binary logistic regression analyses, respectively. Patients who experienced rebleeding, infection, or death (or any combination of these events) presented with lower levels of UFC. Conclusions: This study suggests that low levels of UFC may impose a risk factor for patients with liver cirrhosis and variceal bleeding. The use of UFC as an index of adrenal cortisol production in variceal bleeding warrants further investigation.

Novel nomogram model for predicting 6-week mortality in liver cirrhosis patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting 6-week mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and to compare it with other commonly used scoring systems.

METHODS

This retrospective study included cirrhotic patients with acute UGIB hospitalized between January 2013 and December 2020. Random sampling was used to divide patients into the training (n = 676) and validation cohorts (n = 291) at a 7:3 ratio. Multivariate logistic stepwise regression was used to establish a model for predicting 6-week mortality. Multiple indicators were used to validate the nomogram, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

In the training cohort, total bilirubin (TBIL) (odds ratio [OR] 1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-2.50), hemoglobin (Hb) (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95-0.99), C-reactive protein (OR 2.79, 95% CI 1.30-6.07), prothrombin time (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05-1.30), and hepatic encephalopathy (stage I-II: OR 4.15, 95% CI 1.73-9.61; stage III-IV: OR 19.6, 95% CI 5.33-76.8) were identified as independent factors of 6-week mortality. The AUROC of the UGIB-LC score was 0.873 (95% CI 0.820-0.927), which was higher than that of the Child-Pugh score (0.781), model for end-stage liver disease score (0.766), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (0.716).

CONCLUSION

The UGIB-LC score is useful for predicting 6-week mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and acute UGIB, which is superior to the other three scoring systems.

Does preemptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt improve survival after acute variceal bleeding? Systematic review, meta-analysis, and trial sequential analysis of randomized trials

BACKGROUND AND AIM

A preemptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (p-TIPSS) after acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is advocated. However, when compared with the current standard of care, the survival benefit of p-TIPSS is questionable. We performed a systematic review, meta-analysis, and trial sequential analysis of randomized control trials (RCTs) to assess the survival benefit of p-TIPSS in patients with cirrhosis and AVB.

METHODS

Comprehensive literature search of three bibliographic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane) was conducted from inception till May 2021. All study types evaluating the survival benefit of p-TIPSS in AVB were considered for inclusion. The relative risk (RR) of mortality and rebleeding at 6 weeks and mortality at 1 year with a random-effects model was computed. Trial sequential analysis was performed for the primary outcome of 6-week mortality.

RESULTS

A total of nine studies (four RCTs and five cohort studies) comprising 2861 patients with AVB were included. The overall pooled risks of mortality at 6 weeks and 1 year were 17.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.5-19.3%) and 26.7% (95% CI: 25.0-28.3%), respectively. Although p-TIPSS was associated with lower 6-week rebleeding risk (RR = 0.20; 95% CI = 0.13-0.29, I²  = 0%), data from pooled RCTs showed no significant difference in mortality at 6 weeks (RR = 0.33; 95% CI = 0.08-1.36, I²  = 63%) or at 1 year (RR = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.51-1.14, I²  = 30%). Using trial sequential analysis, required sample size to detect a 20% relative risk reduction in mortality at 6 weeks with p-TIPSS was estimated to be 6317, which is beyond the total number of patients available for analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

This meta-analysis found that the available data from RCTs are insufficient to confer 6-week mortality benefit with p-TIPSS compared with standard of care; thus, adequately powered RCTs are required.