Mortality burden and future projections of major risk factors for esophageal cancer in China from 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

This study, based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, aimed to report the long-term trend in mortality rates caused by risk factors for esophageal cancer (EC) in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the burden of EC mortality caused by these risk factors over the next 15 years.

METHODS

We examined six risk factors that influenced EC mortality rates in China and their respective rankings. Furthermore, we analyzed the number of deaths and crude mortality rates (CMR) caused by these risk factors for both sexes and different age groups. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and the number of deaths across all age groups were also analyzed. Finally, we utilized the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model to predict the trends in ASMR burden caused by these risk factors in the future.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the percentage changes in ASMR for EC caused by the six risk factors in China were as follows: smoking (- 33.4%), alcohol consumption (- 23.0%), low fruit intake (- 73.6%), low vegetable intake (- 96.0%), high Body Mass Index (BMI) (25.1%), and tobacco chewing (- 32.8%). In 2019, the top three risk factors contributing to EC ASMR in China were smoking, alcohol consumption, and high BMI. Overall, the ASMR for EC in China fluctuated and declined from 1990 to 2019. The most common risk factors for males were smoking and alcohol consumption, while low fruit intake and high BMI were the most common risk factors for females. The impact of these risk factors on EC mortality increased with age, except for the elderly population. BAPC analysis indicated that the influence of these risk factors on ASMR was expected to remain relatively stable in the next 15 years, suggesting a continued significant burden of EC.

CONCLUSION

The projected burden of EC mortality in China was expected to continue increasing steadily over the next 15 years, highlighting the pressing need for disease control measures. To alleviate this burden, targeted prevention and control policies addressing risk factors for EC such as smoking, alcohol consumption, and high BMI are necessary.

Long-term trend of future Cancer onset: A model-based prediction of Cancer incidence and onset age by region and gender

OBJECTIVES

This study provided estimates of cancer incidence rate and onset age by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions and gender from 2020 to 2040, aiming to clarify the long-term patterns of future cancer onset.

METHOD

Based on the incidence data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study, we constructed the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to calculate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of cancers from 2020 to 2040. Using the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to quantify the trends of ASIR and the onset age. In addition, the incidences in 2019 were fixed to distinguish the age onset changes caused by demographic and incidence from 2020 to 2040.

RESULTS

Globally, two-thirds of cancers have escalating trends of incidence rate, and the proportion of cancer weighted average onset age above 60 years old will grow from 62% to 76% between 2020 and 2040. In five SDI regions, the proportion of weighted average onset age above 60 years old will rise above 10% in the next 20 years and increase sequentially with the rise of the SDI level. Preclude sex-specific cancers, the onset age is younger in men than in women in 2040. Rule out the influence of changing demographics, half of cancer's morbidity has a youth-oriented tendency globally, which is concentrated in hormone-related and digestive tract cancer.

CONCLUSION

From 2020 to 2040, the incidence and onset age changes demonstrate marked geographic and gender variations in the cancer spectrum. Cancer incidence and onset age are predicted to continuously increase worldwide in the future.

Potential Gains in Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy by Reducing Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in 188 Countries: A Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVES

This article quantifies the potential gains in health-adjusted life expectancy for people aged 30 to 70 years (HALE_[30-70]) by examining the reductions in disability in addition to premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs).

METHODS

We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 for 4 major NCDs (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus) in 188 countries from 2010 to 2019. Estimates of the potential gains in HALE_[30-70] were based on a counterfactual analysis involving 3 alternative future scenarios: (1) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 but do not make any progress on disability reduction, (2) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 and eliminate NCD-related disability, and (3) eliminate all NCD-related mortality and disability.

RESULTS

In all scenarios, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE_[30-70], above the global average. For all specific causes, potential gains in HALE_[30-70] decrease as income levels fall. Across these 3 scenarios, the potential gains in HALE_[30-70] globally of reducing premature mortality for 4 major NCDs are 3.13 years, 4.53 years, and 7.32 years, respectively. In scenario A, all income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE_[30-70] from diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases. In scenarios B and C, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE_[30-70] from cancer intervention, and the other income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE_[30-70] from cardiovascular diseases intervention.

CONCLUSION

Reducing premature death and disability from 4 major NCDs at once and attaching equal importance to each lead to a sizable improvement in HALE_[30-70].

Global and Regional Trends and Projections of Infective Endocarditis-Associated Disease Burden and Attributable Risk Factors from 1990 to 2030

Objective To forecast the future burden and its attributable risk factors of infective endocarditis (IE). Method We analyzed the disease burden of IE and its risk factors from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database and projected the disease burden from 2020 to 2030 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results By 2030, the incidence of IE will increase uncontrollably on a global scale, with developed countries having the largest number of cases and developing countries experiencing the fastest growth. The affected population will be predominantly males, but the gender gap will narrow. The elderly in high-income countries will bear the greatest burden, with a gradual shift to middle-income countries. The incidence of IE in countries with middle/high-middle social-demographic indicators (SDI) will surpass that of high SDI countries. In China, the incidence rate and the number of IE will reach 18.07 per 100,000 and 451,596 in 2030, respectively. IE-associated deaths and heart failure will continue to impose a significant burden on society, the burden on women will increase and surpass that on men, and the elderly in high-SDI countries will bear the heaviest burden. High systolic blood pressure has become the primary risk factor for IE-related death. Conclusions This study provides comprehensive analyses of the disease burden and risk factors of IE worldwide over the next decade. The IE-associated incidence will increase in the future and the death and heart failure burden will not be appropriately controlled. Gender, age, regional, and country heterogeneity should be taken seriously to facilitate in making effective strategies for lowering the IE disease burden.

Bayesian age-period-cohort prediction of lung cancer incidence in China

BACKGROUND

  Lung cancer is one of the most common cancers in China. Estimation of future cancer trends is important for cancer control planning. The aim of this study was to examine the trend of lung cancer incidence from 1998 to 2007 and predict the lung cancer burden up to 2020 in China.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

  Lung cancer incidence data were retrieved from the national cancer registration database from 1998 to 2007. Annual population projection for the same period was obtained from the National Statistics Bureau. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction package (Institute of Biomedical Engineering, Imperial College, London, UK) was used to describe the trend of lung cancer incidence and to predict the incidence rate and number of cases until the year 2020.

RESULTS

  The crude incidence rates of lung cancer increased from 43.39 per 100 000 in 1998 to 51.25 per 100 000 in 2007. After age standardization, the incidence rates remained stable over the 10-year period. The trends were mainly caused by aging, no obvious period effects and cohort effects were observed. Our projection showed that the age-standardized lung cancer incidence rate would remain steady until 2020. The estimated number of new incident cases was predicted to increase to 693 727 in 2020.

CONCLUSION

  The burden of lung cancer incidence is likely to continue increasing. Effective policies such as smoking cessation and environmental protection are imperative for lung cancer control and prevention.