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Giannella M, Freire M, Rinaldi M, Abdala E, Rubin A, Mularoni A, Gruttadauria S, Grossi P, Shbaklo N, Tandoi F, Ferrarese A, Burra P, Fernandes R, Aranha Camargo LF, Asensio A, Alagna L, Bandera A, Simkins J, Abbo L, Halpern M, Santana Girao E, Valerio M, Muñoz P, Fernandez Yunquera A, Statlender L, Yahav D, Franceschini E, Graziano E, Morelli MC, Cescon M, Viale P, Lewis R. Development of a Risk Prediction Model for Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae Infection after Liver Transplantation: A Multinational Cohort Study. Clin Infect Dis 2021; 73:e955-e966. [PMID: 33564840 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab109] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Patients colonized with carbapenem resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) are at higher risk of developing CRE infection after liver transplantation (LT) with associated high morbidity and mortality. Prediction model for CRE infection after LT among carriers could be useful to target preventive strategies. METHODS Multinational multicenter cohort study of consecutive adult patients underwent LT and colonized with CRE before or after LT, from January 2010 to December 2017. Risk factors for CRE infection were analyzed by univariate analysis and by Fine-Gray sub-distribution hazard model, with death as competing event. A nomogram to predict 30- and 60-day CRE infection risk was created. RESULTS 840 LT recipients found to be colonized with CRE before (n=203) or after (n=637) LT were enrolled. CRE infection was diagnosed in 250 (29.7%) patients within 19 (IQR 9-42) days after LT. Pre-and post-LT colonization, multisite post-LT colonization, prolonged mechanical ventilation, acute renal injury, and surgical re-intervention were retained in the prediction model. Median 30 and 60-day predicted risk was 15% (IQR 11-24%) and 21% (IQR 15-33%), respectively. Discrimination and prediction accuracy for CRE infection was acceptable on derivation (AUC 74.6, Brier index 16.3) and bootstrapped validation dataset (AUC 73.9, Brier index 16.6). Decision-curve analysis suggested net benefit of model-directed intervention over default strategies (treat all, treat none) when CRE infection probability exceeded 10%. The risk prediction model is freely available as mobile application at https://idbologna.shinyapps.io/CREPostOLTPredictionModel/. CONCLUSIONS Our clinical prediction tool could enable better targeting interventions for CRE infection after transplant.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maddalena Giannella
- Infectious Diseases Unit, IRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, Policlinico di Sant'Orsola, Bologna, Italy.,Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Maristela Freire
- Working Committee for Hospital Epidemiology and Infection Control, Hospital das Clinicas, Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Matteo Rinaldi
- Infectious Diseases Unit, IRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, Policlinico di Sant'Orsola, Bologna, Italy.,Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Edson Abdala
- Infectious diseases department, Hospital das Clinicas, Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Arianna Rubin
- Infectious Diseases Unit, IRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, Policlinico di Sant'Orsola, Bologna, Italy
| | | | - Salvatore Gruttadauria
- Department for the Treatment and Study of Abdominal Diseases and Abdominal Transplantation, IRCCS, ISMETT-UPMC, Palermo, Italy
| | - Paolo Grossi
- Infectious and Tropical Diseases Department, University of Insubria, Varese, Italy
| | - Nour Shbaklo
- Infectious Disease, Department of Medical Sciences University of Turin AOU Città della salute e della Scienza, Turin, Italy
| | - Francesco Tandoi
- Liver Transplant Center, General Surgery Unit, Department of Surgical Sciences, A.O.U. Città della Salute e della Scienza, Molinette Hospital, University of Turin, Turin, Italy
| | - Alberto Ferrarese
- Multivisceral Transplant Unit (Gastroenterology), Department of Surgery Oncology and Gastroenterology, Surgical and Gastroenterological Sciences, Padua University Hospital, Padua, Italy
| | - Patrizia Burra
- Multivisceral Transplant Unit (Gastroenterology), Department of Surgery Oncology and Gastroenterology, Surgical and Gastroenterological Sciences, Padua University Hospital, Padua, Italy
| | - Ruan Fernandes
- Infectious Diseases Unit, Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Angel Asensio
- Preventive Medicine Department, Puerta de Hierro-Majadahonda University Hospital, Majadahonda, Madrid, Spain
| | - Laura Alagna
- Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Alessandra Bandera
- Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Jacques Simkins
- Transplant Infectious Diseases and Immunocompromised Host Service, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Miami/Miami Transplant Institute, Miami, Florida, USA
| | - Lilian Abbo
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Miami, Miami, Florida, USA
| | - Marcia Halpern
- Liver Transplant Unit, Quinta D'Or Hospital, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Evelyne Santana Girao
- Infectious Diseases Unit and Liver Transplant Unit of Hospital Universitário Walter Cantídio, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza- Brazil
| | - Maricela Valerio
- Department of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain
| | - Patricia Muñoz
- Department of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain
| | - Ainhoa Fernandez Yunquera
- Department of Gastroenterology, Instituto de Investigación Sanitaria Gregorio Marañón, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Dafna Yahav
- Infectious Disease Unit, Beilinson Hospital, Petah Tikva, Israel
| | - Erica Franceschini
- Infectious Diseases Unit, Department of Nephrology Dialysis and Transplant Unit, University Hospital of Modena, Modena, Italy
| | | | - Maria Cristina Morelli
- Internal Medicine Unit for the Treatment of Severe Organ Failure, IRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, Policlinico di Sant'Orsola, Bologna, Italy
| | - Matteo Cescon
- Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.,Liver and Multiorgan Transplant Unit, IRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, Policlinico di Sant'Orsola, Bologna, Italy
| | - Pierluigi Viale
- Infectious Diseases Unit, IRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, Policlinico di Sant'Orsola, Bologna, Italy.,Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
| | - Russell Lewis
- Infectious Diseases Unit, IRCCS Azienda Ospedaliero-Universitaria di Bologna, Policlinico di Sant'Orsola, Bologna, Italy.,Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, Alma Mater Studiorum University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy
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