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Jarlais DD, Khue PM, Feelemyer J, Arasteh K, Huong DT, Oanh KTH, Giang HT, Thanh NTT, Vinh VH, Heckathorn DD, Moles JP, Vallo R, Quillet C, Rapoud D, Michel L, Laureillard D, Hammett T, Nagot N. Using dual capture/recapture studies to estimate the population size of persons who inject drugs (PWID) in the city of Hai Phong, Vietnam. Drug Alcohol Depend 2018; 185:106-111. [PMID: 29432973 PMCID: PMC5889732 DOI: 10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2017.11.033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2017] [Revised: 11/22/2017] [Accepted: 11/26/2017] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Good estimates of key population sizes are critical for appropriating resources to prevent HIV infection. We conducted two capture/recapture studies to estimate the number of PWID currently in Hai Phong, Vietnam. METHODS A 2014 respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey served as one capture, and distribution of cigarette lighters at drug use "hotspots" in 2016 served as another "capture." A 2016 survey using RDS, conducted 1 week after lighter distribution, served as "recapture" for both captures. Recaptured participants in the two surveys were identified with a computerized fingerprint reader. Recaptured participants from the lighter distribution were asked to show their lighters. RESULTS 1385 participants were included in the "recapture" survey. They were 94% male and had a median age of 39. All (100%) injected heroin, and HIV prevalence was 30%. 144 of the 603 participants in the 2014 survey and 152 of the 600 PWID who had received lighters were "recaptured" in the 2016 survey. After adjusting for police suppression of drug use hotspots and conducting sensitivity analyses, our best estimate of the population size from the lighter recapture was 4617 (95% CI: 4090-5143), and our best estimate from the 2014 survey recapture was 5220 (95% CI: 4568-5872). A combined best estimate of the PWID population in Hai Phong is 5000, range 4000-6000. CONCLUSIONS The capture/recapture studies produced consistent estimates. Adding a lighter/token distribution to planned RDS surveys may provide an inexpensive method for estimating PWID population size. Analyses of the estimates should include contextual information about the local drug scene.
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Affiliation(s)
- Don Des Jarlais
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, 39 Broadway Suite 530, New York, NY 10006, USA
| | - Pham Minh Khue
- Hai Phong University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 72 Nguyen Binh Khiem,
Hai Phong, Vietnam
| | - Jonathan Feelemyer
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, 39 Broadway Suite 530, New York, NY 10006, USA
| | - Kamyar Arasteh
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, 39 Broadway Suite 530, New York, NY 10006, USA
| | - Duong Thi Huong
- Hai Phong University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 72 Nguyen Binh Khiem,
Hai Phong, Vietnam
| | - Khuat Thi Hai Oanh
- Supporting Community Development Initiatives, 240 Mai Anh Tuan,
Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Hoang Thi Giang
- Hai Phong University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 72 Nguyen Binh Khiem,
Hai Phong, Vietnam
| | | | - Vu Hai Vinh
- Department of infectious and tropical diseases, Viet Tiep Hospital,
Hai Ba Trung, Cat Dai, Hai Phong Vietnam
| | | | - Jean Pierre Moles
- Etablissement Français du Sang, University of Montpellier,
163 Rue Auguste Broussonnet, Montpellier, France
| | - Roselyne Vallo
- Etablissement Français du Sang, University of Montpellier,
163 Rue Auguste Broussonnet, Montpellier, France
| | - Catherine Quillet
- Etablissement Français du Sang, University of Montpellier,
163 Rue Auguste Broussonnet, Montpellier, France
| | - Delphine Rapoud
- Etablissement Français du Sang, University of Montpellier,
163 Rue Auguste Broussonnet, Montpellier, France
| | - Laurent Michel
- Pierre Nicole Center, French Red Cross, 27 Rue Pierre Nicole, Paris,
France
| | - Didier Laureillard
- Etablissement Français du Sang, University of Montpellier,
163 Rue Auguste Broussonnet, Montpellier, France,Infectious diseases department, Caremeau University Hospital, Rue du
Professeur Robert Debre, Nîmes, France
| | - Ted Hammett
- Abt Associates, 55 Wheeler Street, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Nicolas Nagot
- Etablissement Français du Sang, University of Montpellier,
163 Rue Auguste Broussonnet, Montpellier, France
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