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Huang AC, Dodge JL, Yao FY, Mehta N. National Experience on Waitlist Outcomes for Down-Staging of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: High Dropout Rate in All-Comers. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2022; 21:1581-1589. [PMID: 36038129 DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2022.08.023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2022] [Revised: 07/26/2022] [Accepted: 08/16/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS The United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) grants priority listing for liver transplant for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after successful down-staging to Milan criteria. We evaluated the national experience on down-staging by comparing 2 down-staging groups: tumor burden meeting UNOS down-staging (UNOS-DS) inclusion criteria, and all-comers (AC)-DS with initial tumor burden beyond UNOS-DS criteria vs patients always within Milan criteria. METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of the UNOS database of 23,398 patients listed for liver transplant who had submitted a hepatocellular carcinoma Model for End-Stage Liver Disease exception application from 2010 to 2019, classified as always within Milan (n = 20,579), UNOS-DS (n = 2151), and AC-DS (n = 668). RESULTS The 2-year cumulative probabilities of dropout were 19% for Milan, 25% for UNOS-DS (P < .001), and 30% for AC-DS (P < .001). In multivariate analysis of the down-staging groups, factors predicting dropout included Model for End-Stage Liver Disease at listing (hazard ratio [HR], 1.06; P < .001) and initial total tumor diameter (HR, 1.04; P = .002). Compared with α-fetoprotein (AFP) level ≤20 ng/mL, AFP levels of 21 to 100, 101 to 1000, and greater than 1000 ng/mL were associated with a higher risk of dropout (HRs, 1.63, 2.06, and 4.58, respectively; P < .001). A subset of all-comers with AFP levels greater than 100 ng/mL had a 2-year probability of dropout of 52% vs 26% for all others beyond Milan criteria (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS All-comers had a significantly higher risk for waitlist dropout compared with the UNOS-DS and Milan groups after initial successful down-staging to Milan criteria. In particular, the subgroup of AC-DS with an AFP level greater than 100 ng/mL had a greater than 50% probability of dropout in the next 2 years. These observations suggest a high likelihood of failure when expanding the indications for down-staging.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annsa C Huang
- Division of Gastroenterology/Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Jennifer L Dodge
- Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California; Department of Preventive Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
| | - Francis Y Yao
- Division of Gastroenterology/Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California; Department of Surgery, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California
| | - Neil Mehta
- Division of Gastroenterology/Hepatology, Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California.
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Tan DJH, Lim WH, Yong JN, Ng CH, Muthiah MD, Tan EX, Xiao J, Lim SY, Pin Tang AS, Pan XH, Kabir T, Bonney GK, Sundar R, Syn N, Kim BK, Dan YY, Noureddin M, Loomba R, Huang DQ. UNOS Down-Staging Criteria for Liver Transplantation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 25 Studies. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2022; 21:1475-1484. [PMID: 35181565 DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2022.02.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2021] [Revised: 02/03/2022] [Accepted: 02/07/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND & AIMS Down-staging is commonly used to select patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond Milan criteria (MC) for liver transplantation (LT), but outcomes are heterogenous. We aimed to estimate pooled down-staging success rates, HCC recurrence, and overall survival (OS), stratified by criteria used for baseline tumor burden. METHODS We searched Pubmed and EMBASE databases from inception until August 2021 for studies reporting down-staging success (reduction of tumor burden to within MC) and outcomes of adult HCC patients. In addition, we performed a pooled analysis using reconstructed individual participant data to obtain robust estimates for OS. RESULTS We screened 1059 articles and included 25 articles involving 3997 patients. Overall, 55.16% (45.49%-64.46%) underwent successful down-staging, and 31.52% (24.03%-40.11%) received LT (by intention-to-treat analysis [ITT]). Among patients who received LT, 16.01% (11.80%-21.37%) developed HCC recurrence. Comparing studies that used the United Network for Organ Sharing Down-Staging (UNOS-DS) criteria versus studies beyond UNOS-DS or did not specify criteria, down-staging success (by ITT) was 83.21% versus 45.93%, P < .001; the proportion who received LT (by ITT) was 48.61% vs 28.60%, P = .030; and HCC recurrence (among patients who received LT) occurred in 9.06% versus 20.42%, P < .001. Among studies that used UNOS-DS criteria, ITT 1- and 5-year OS from the initiation of down-staging treatment was 86% and 58%, respectively, whereas 1- and 5-year post-LT OS was 94% and 74%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Among studies that adhered to UNOS-DS criteria, down-staging was successful in four-fifths of patients, >50% received LT, and post-LT outcomes were excellent. These data provide clinical validation for the utilization of UNOS-DS criteria.
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Affiliation(s)
- Darren Jun Hao Tan
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
| | - Wen Hui Lim
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Jie Ning Yong
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Cheng Han Ng
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Mark D Muthiah
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; National University Centre for Organ Transplantation, National University Health System, Singapore; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Eunice X Tan
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; National University Centre for Organ Transplantation, National University Health System, Singapore; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Jieling Xiao
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Snow Yunni Lim
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Ansel Shao Pin Tang
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Xin Hui Pan
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Tousif Kabir
- Department of General Surgery, Sengkang General Hospital, Singapore; Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary and Transplant Surgery, Singapore General Hospital, Singapore
| | - Glenn K Bonney
- Division of Hepatobiliary & Pancreatic Surgery, Department of Surgery, National University Hospital, National University Health System, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Raghav Sundar
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Department of Haematology-Oncology, National University Cancer Institute, Singapore
| | - Nicholas Syn
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Biostatistics and Modelling Domain, Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Beom Kyung Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University Health System, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Yock Young Dan
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore; Biostatistics and Modelling Domain, Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, Singapore
| | - Mazen Noureddin
- Cedars-Sinai Fatty Liver Program, Division of Digestive and Liver Diseases, Department of Medicine, Comprehensive Transplant Center, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, California
| | - Rohit Loomba
- NAFLD Research Center, Division of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California
| | - Daniel Q Huang
- Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; National University Centre for Organ Transplantation, National University Health System, Singapore; Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore; NAFLD Research Center, Division of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California.
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