Research on the security of natural gas supply and demand in China under the dual carbon target

The security of natural gas supply is not only an important part of China's energy security, it also serves as a basic guarantee for China to achieve its dual carbon target and energy transition. Therefore, it is very important to conduct research on the security of China's natural gas supply and demand in the context of the dual carbon target. This paper develops a system dynamics (SD) model for natural gas demand forecasting and a generalized Weng's model for production forecasting to predict China's natural gas demand and production under different scenarios during 2022-2060, and then analyzes China's natural gas supply and demand situation and potential import and external dependence based on the forecast results. The simulation results show that (1) under the two demand scenarios D1 and D2, China's natural gas demand will peak at 766.02 billion m3 in 2046 and 708.07 billion m3 in 2036 and decline to 521.65 billion m3 and 278.99 billion m3 in 2060 respectively; (2) under the two production scenarios S1 and S2, China's natural gas production will peak at 344.581 billion m3 in 2042 and 366.341 billion m3 in 2043 and decrease to about 250 billion m3 in 2060; (3) before 2035, the security of natural gas supply in China will face a challenging situation, the total volume of potential gas imports will gradually increase to about 350 billion m3, and China's dependence on natural gas imports will exceed 50%; after 2035, the progress of China's energy transition will improve the security of its natural gas supply. This paper proposes four recommendations for expanding gas demand in the near to medium term, promoting conventional and unconventional gas production, diversifying import channels and building emergency reserves to ensure China's gas supply security and enable gas to play a "bridging" role in the energy transition.

Does green finance boost carbon-neutral performance? Evidence from China

Carbon neutrality has attracted widespread attention as a key strategy for mitigating environmental degradation, but there is little research on whether the development of green finance can contribute to the process of carbon neutrality. This paper proposes a hypothesis based on the relationship between green finance and carbon-neutral performance and empirically tests it using a spatial Durbin model and combining it with a threshold panel model utilizing Chinese provincial sample data from 2011 to 2021. The study found that (1) green finance development would promote carbon-neutral performance; (2) there are notable spatial characteristics of green finance and carbon neutrality performance, with local green finance impacts both local and neighboring carbon-neutral performance; and (3) green finance impacts carbon-neutral performance at a single threshold and different levels of green finance development affect carbon-neutral performance differently. In the eastern, central, and western regions, the contribution of green finance to carbon-neutral performance gradually decreases. Thus, Chinese authorities should strengthen the green sustainable financing system, promote regional green finance, and enhance the carbon-neutral performance of green finance.