Prospective cohort study on tuberculosis incidence and risk factors in the elderly population of eastern China

Background

Tuberculosis continues to be a significant public health concern in China, particularly among the elderly population. This study aimed to assess the risk factors of tuberculosis among elderly individuals in China through a cohort study, focusing on this high-risk population.

Methods

The population-based census was strategically designed to cover diverse regions and demographics across the city. The survey captured demographic and lifestyle information, as well as a clinical examination. Participants were prospectively followed up over a specified duration to monitor the incidence of tuberculosis cases.

Results

After a follow-up period of more than 7 years, 246 individuals developed tuberculosis, resulting in an incidence rate of 92.21 per 100,000 person-years (95 % CI 81.2-104.3). In multivariate analysis, the following factors were found to have significant associations with active tuberculosis. Increasing age correlated with a higher risk of active tuberculosis (AHR = 1.03 per 1-year increase in age, 95%CI: 1.01, 1.04, P < 0.001). Males continued to have a higher risk compared to females (HR = 2.73, 95%CI: 2.08, 3.58, P < 0.001). Individuals with a normal Body Mass Index (BMI) faced nearly three times higher risk compared to their obese counterparts (HR = 2.87, 95 % CI: 1.51, 5.46, P = 0.001). Conversely, those with an underweight BMI had a ten-fold higher risk compared to the obese group (HR = 9.89, 95 % CI: 4.92, 19.85, P < 0.001). Elderly individuals who quit smoking had a 1.35-fold increased risk compared to non-smokers (HR = 1.35, 95%CI: 1.12, 1.64, P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Tuberculosis incidence among the elderly population in China remained alarmingly high. This finding emphasizes the urgent need for implementing proactive case detection measures specifically tailored to address the specific needs of this vulnerable demographic, particularly in individuals who are male, have a history of former or current smoking, and have a low BMI. Moreover, we must not underestimate the influence of former smoking on tuberculosis risk.

Incidence and risk factors of tuberculosis among the elderly population in China: a prospective cohort study

Background

China is facing challenges of the shifting presentation of tuberculosis (TB) from younger to elderly due to an ageing population, longer life expectancy and reactivation disease. However, the burden of elderly TB and influence factors are not yet clear. To fill the gap, we generated a cohort study to measure the magnitude of TB incidence and associated factors among the elderly population aged 65 years and above in China.

Methods

In this cohort established in 2013 through a prevalence survey conducted in selected sites, a total of 34 076 elderlies without TB were enrolled into two-year follow-up. We used both active and passive case findings to find out all TB patients among them. The person-year (PY) incidence rates for both bacteriologically positive TB and active TB were calculated. Cox proportional regression model was performed to test effect of risk factors, and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of each risk factor contributing to incident TB among elderlies was calculated.

Results

Over the two-year follow-up period, a total of 215 incident active TB were identified, 62 of which were bacteriologically positive. The incidence rates for active TB and bacteriologically positive TB were 481.8 per 100 000 PY (95% CI: 417.4–546.2 per 100 000 PY) and 138.9 per 100 000 PY (95% CI: 104.4–173.5 per 100 000 PY), respectively. Incident cases detected by active case finding were significantly higher (P < 0.001). Male, non-Han nationality, previously treated TB, ex/current smoker and body mass index (BMI) < 18.5 presented as independent predictors for developing TB disease. For developing bacteriologically positive TB, the biggest contribution was from self-reported ex or current smoker (18.06%). And, for developing active TB, the biggest contribution was from non-Han nationality (35.40%), followed by male (26.80%) and age at 75 years and above (10.85%).

Conclusions

Ageing population in China had a high TB incidence rate and risk to develop TB disease, implying that National TB Program (NTP) needs to prioritize for elderly. Active case finding should be applied capture more active TB cases among this particular population, especially for male, non-Han nationality, and those with identified risk factors.