1
|
Kura K, Ayabina D, Hollingsworth TD, Anderson RM. Determining the optimal strategies to achieve elimination of transmission for Schistosoma mansoni. Parasit Vectors 2022; 15:55. [PMID: 35164842 PMCID: PMC8842958 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-022-05178-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2021] [Accepted: 01/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In January 2021, the World Health Organization published the 2021-2030 roadmap for the control of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). The goal for schistosomiasis is to achieve elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) and elimination of transmission (EOT) in 78 and 25 countries (by 2030), respectively. Mass drug administration (MDA) of praziquantel continues to be the main strategy for control and elimination. However, as there is limited availability of praziquantel, it is important to determine what volume of treatments are required, who should be targeted and how frequently treatment must be administered to eliminate either transmission or morbidity caused by infection in different endemic settings with varied transmission intensities. METHODS AND RESULTS: In this paper, we employ two individual-based stochastic models of schistosomiasis transmission developed independently by the Imperial College London (ICL) and University of Oxford (SCHISTOX) to determine the optimal treatment strategies to achieve EOT. We find that treating school-age children (SAC) only is not sufficient to achieve EOT within a feasible time frame, regardless of the transmission setting and observed age-intensity of infection profile. Both models show that community-wide treatment is necessary to interrupt transmission in all endemic settings with low, medium and high pristine transmission intensities. CONCLUSIONS The required MDA coverage level to achieve either transmission or morbidity elimination depends on the prevalence prior to the start of treatment and the burden of infection in adults. The higher the worm burden in adults, the higher the coverage levels required for this age category through community-wide treatment programmes. Therefore, it is important that intensity and prevalence data are collected in each age category, particularly from SAC and adults, so that the correct coverage level can be calculated and administered.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Klodeta Kura
- grid.512598.2London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK ,grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK ,grid.14105.310000000122478951MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, UK
| | - Diepreye Ayabina
- grid.4991.50000 0004 1936 8948Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LF UK
| | - T. Deirdre Hollingsworth
- grid.4991.50000 0004 1936 8948Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LF UK
| | - Roy M. Anderson
- grid.512598.2London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK ,grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK ,grid.14105.310000000122478951MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, UK ,grid.35937.3b0000 0001 2270 9879The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Abstract
Trachoma is a neglected tropical disease and the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide. The current World Health Organization goal for trachoma is elimination as a public health problem, defined as reaching a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular below 5% in children (1-9 years) and a prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis in adults below 0.2%. Current targets to achieve elimination were set to 2020 but are being extended to 2030. Mathematical and statistical models suggest that 2030 is a realistic timeline for elimination as a public health problem in most trachoma endemic areas. Although the goal can be achieved, it is important to develop appropriate monitoring tools for surveillance after having achieved the elimination target to check for the possibility of resurgence. For this purpose, a standardized serological approach or the use of multiple diagnostics in complement would likely be required.
Collapse
|
3
|
NTD Modelling Consortium discussion group on trachoma. Insights from mathematical modelling and quantitative analysis on the proposed 2030 goals for trachoma. Gates Open Res 2019; 3:1721. [PMID: 34027309 DOI: 10.12688/gatesopenres.13086.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/12/2019] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Trachoma is a neglected tropical disease and the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide. The current World Health Organization goal for trachoma is elimination as a public health problem, defined as reaching a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular below 5% in children (1-9 years) and a prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis in adults below 0.2%. Current targets to achieve elimination were set to 2020 but are being extended to 2030. Mathematical and statistical models suggest that 2030 is a realistic timeline for elimination as a public health problem in most trachoma endemic areas. Although the goal can be achieved, it is important to develop appropriate monitoring tools for surveillance after having achieved the elimination target to check for the possibility of resurgence. For this purpose, a standardized serological approach or the use of multiple diagnostics in complement would likely be required.
Collapse
|
4
|
Kura K, Hardwick RJ, Truscott JE, Toor J, Hollingsworth TD, Anderson RM. The impact of mass drug administration on Schistosoma haematobium infection: what is required to achieve morbidity control and elimination? Parasit Vectors 2020; 13:554. [PMID: 33203467 PMCID: PMC7672840 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-020-04409-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2020] [Accepted: 10/21/2020] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Schistosomiasis remains an endemic parasitic disease causing much morbidity and, in some cases, mortality. The World Health Organization (WHO) has outlined strategies and goals to combat the burden of disease caused by schistosomiasis. The first goal is morbidity control, which is defined by achieving less than 5% prevalence of heavy intensity infection in school-aged children (SAC). The second goal is elimination as a public health problem (EPHP), achieved when the prevalence of heavy intensity infection in SAC is reduced to less than 1%. Mass drug administration (MDA) of praziquantel is the main strategy for control. However, there is limited availability of praziquantel, particularly in Africa where there is high prevalence of infection. It is therefore important to explore whether the WHO goals can be achieved using the current guidelines for treatment based on targeting SAC and, in some cases, adults. Previous modelling work has largely focused on Schistosoma mansoni, which in advance cases can cause liver and spleen enlargement. There has been much less modelling of the transmission of Schistosoma haematobium, which in severe cases can cause kidney damage and bladder cancer. This lack of modelling has largely been driven by limited data availability and challenges in interpreting these data. Results In this paper, using an individual-based stochastic model and age-intensity profiles of S. haematobium from two different communities, we calculate the probability of achieving the morbidity and EPHP goals within 15 years of treatment under the current WHO treatment guidelines. We find that targeting SAC only can achieve the morbidity goal for all transmission settings, regardless of the burden of infection in adults. The EPHP goal can be achieved in low transmission settings, but in some moderate to high settings community-wide treatment is needed. Conclusions We show that the key determinants of achieving the WHO goals are the precise form of the age-intensity of infection profile and the baseline SAC prevalence. Additionally, we find that the higher the burden of infection in adults, the higher the chances that adults need to be included in the treatment programme to achieve EPHP.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Klodeta Kura
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK. .,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK. .,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, UK.
| | - Robert J Hardwick
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK.,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, UK.,The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, UK
| | - James E Truscott
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK.,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, UK.,The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, UK
| | - Jaspreet Toor
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK
| | - T Deirdre Hollingsworth
- Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX3 7LF, UK
| | - Roy M Anderson
- London Centre for Neglected Tropical Disease Research, London, UK.,Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, UK.,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, London, UK.,The DeWorm3 Project, The Natural History Museum of London, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
NTD Modelling Consortium Schistosomiasis Group. Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goal for schistosomiasis. Gates Open Res 2019; 3:1517. [PMID: 31701091 DOI: 10.12688/gatesopenres.13052.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/08/2019] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Schistosomiasis remains one of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) impacting millions of people around the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently proposed a goal of elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) for schistosomiasis to be reached by 2030. Current WHO treatment guidelines for achieving EPHP focus on targeting school-aged children. The NTD Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical models to study schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and the impact of control measures. Our modelling insights on Schistosoma mansoni have shown that EPHP is likely to be attainable in low to moderate prevalence settings using the current guidelines. However, as prevalence rises within high prevalence settings, EPHP is less likely to be achieved unless both school-aged children and adults are treated (with coverage levels increasing with the adult burden of infection). We highlight the challenges that are faced by treatment programmes, such as non-adherence to treatment and resurgence, which can hinder progress towards achieving and maintaining EPHP. Additionally, even though EPHP may be reached, prevalence can still be high due to persisting infections. Therefore, without interruption of transmission, treatment will likely have to continue to maintain EPHP. Further modelling work is being carried out, including extending our results to S. haematobium. By providing these modelling insights, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for schistosomiasis.
Collapse
|
6
|
Abstract
Schistosomiasis remains one of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) impacting millions of people around the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently proposed a goal of elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) for schistosomiasis to be reached by 2030. Current WHO treatment guidelines for achieving EPHP focus on targeting school-aged children. The NTD Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical models to study schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and the impact of control measures. Our modelling insights on
Schistosoma mansoni have shown that EPHP is likely to be attainable in low to moderate prevalence settings using the current guidelines. However, as prevalence rises within high prevalence settings, EPHP is less likely to be achieved unless both school-aged children and adults are treated (with coverage levels increasing with the adult burden of infection). We highlight the challenges that are faced by treatment programmes, such as non-adherence to treatment and resurgence, which can hinder progress towards achieving and maintaining EPHP. Additionally, even though EPHP may be reached, prevalence can still be high due to persisting infections. Therefore, without interruption of transmission, treatment will likely have to continue to maintain EPHP. Further modelling work is being carried out, including extending our results to
S. haematobium. By providing these modelling insights, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for schistosomiasis.
Collapse
|
7
|
Abstract
Chagas disease (CD) persists as one of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) with a particularly large impact in the Americas. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently proposed goals for CD elimination as a public health problem to be reached by 2030 by means of achieving intradomiciliary transmission interruption (IDTI), blood transfusion and transplant transmission interruption, diagnostic and treatment scaling-up and prevention and control of congenital transmission. The NTD Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical models to study
Trypanosoma cruzi transmission dynamics and the potential impact of control measures. Modelling insights have shown that IDTI is feasible in areas with sustained vector control programmes and no presence of native triatomine vector populations. However, IDTI in areas with native vectors it is not feasible in a sustainable manner. Combining vector control with trypanocidal treatment can reduce the timeframes necessary to reach operational thresholds for IDTI (<2% seroprevalence in children aged <5 years), but the most informative age groups for serological monitoring are yet to be identified. Measuring progress towards the 2030 goals will require availability of vector surveillance and seroprevalence data at a fine scale, and a more active surveillance system, as well as a better understanding of the risks of vector re-colonization and disease resurgence after vector control cessation. Also, achieving scaling-up in terms of access to treatment to the expected levels (75%) will require a substantial increase in screening asymptomatic populations, which is anticipated to become very costly as CD prevalence decreases. Further modelling work includes refining and extending mathematical models (including transmission dynamics and statistical frameworks) to predict transmission at a sub-national scale, and developing quantitative tools to inform IDTI certification, post-certification and re-certification protocols. Potential perverse incentives associated with operational thresholds are discussed. These modelling insights aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for CD.
Collapse
|