Obstetrics at Decisive Crossroads Regarding Pattern-Recognition of Fetal Heart Rate Decelerations: Scientific Principles and Lessons From Memetics

The survival of cardiotocography (CTG) as a tool for intrapartum fetal monitoring seems threatened somewhat unjustifiably and unwittingly despite the absence of better alternatives. Fetal heart rate (FHR) decelerations are center-stage (most important) in the interpretation of CTG with maximum impact on three-tier classification. The pattern-discrimination of FHR decelerations is inexorably linked to their nomenclature. Unscientific or flawed nomenclature of decelerations can explain the dysfunctional CTG interpretation leading to errors in detection of acidemic fetuses. There are three contrasting concepts about categorization of FHR decelerations: 1) all rapid decelerations (the vast majority) should be grouped as “variable” because they are predominantly due to cord-compression, 2) all decelerations are due to chemoreflex from fetal hypoxemia hence their timing is not important, and 3) FHR decelerations should be categorized into “early/late/variable” based primarily on their time relationship to contractions. These theoretical concepts are like memes (ideas/beliefs). Lessons from “memetics” are that the most popular, attractive or established beliefs may not necessarily be true, scientific, beneficial or even without harm. Decelerations coincident with contractions with trough corresponding to the peak of contractions cannot be explained by cord-compression or increasing hypoxia (from compromised uteroplacental perfusion, cord-compression or even cerebral hypoperfusion/anoxia purportedly conceivable from head-compression). Decelerations due to hypoxemia would be associated with delayed recovery of decelerations (lag phase). It is a scientific imperative to cast away disproven/falsified theories. Practices based on unscientific theories lead to patient harm. Clinicians should urgently adopt the categorization of FHR decelerations based primarily of the time relationship to contractions as originally proposed by Hon and Caldeyro-Barcia. This analytical review shows it to be underpinned by most robust physiological and scientific hypotheses unlike the other categorizations associated with untruthful hypotheses, irreconcilable fallacies and contradictions. Without truthful framework and meaningful pattern-recognition of FHR decelerations, the CTG will not fulfil its true potential.

Critical Imperative for the Reform of British Interpretation of Fetal Heart Rate Decelerations: Analysis of FIGO and NICE Guidelines, Post-Truth Foundations, Cognitive Fallacies, Myths and Occam's Razor

Cardiotocography (CTG) has disappointingly failed to show good predictability for fetal acidemia or neonatal outcomes in several large studies. A complete rethink of CTG interpretation will not be out of place. Fetal heart rate (FHR) decelerations are the most common deviations, benign as well as manifestation of impending fetal hypoxemia/acidemia, much more commonly than FHR baseline or variability. Their specific nomenclature is important (center-stage) because it provides the basic concepts and framework on which the complex "pattern recognition" of CTG interpretation by clinicians depends. Unfortunately, the discrimination of FHR decelerations seems to be muddled since the British obstetrics adopted the concept of vast majority of FHR decelerations being "variable" (cord-compression). With proliferation of confusing waveform criteria, "atypical variables" became the commonest cause of suspicious/pathological CTG. However, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) (2014) had to disband the "typical" and "atypical" terminology because of flawed classifying criteria. This analytical review makes a strong case that there are major and fundamental framing and confirmation fallacies (not just biases) in interpretation of FHR decelerations by NICE (2014) and International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) (2015), probably the biggest in modern medicine. This "post-truth" approach is incompatible with scientific practice. Moreover, it amounts to setting oneself for failure. The inertia to change could be best described as "backfire effect". There is abundant evidence that head-compression (and other non-hypoxic mediators) causes rapid rather than shallow/gradual decelerations. Currently, the vast majority of decelerations are attributed to unproven cord compression underpinned by flawed disproven pathophysiological hypotheses. Their further discrimination based on abstract, random, trial and error criteria remains unresolved suggesting a false premise to begin with. This is not surprising considering that the commonest pathophysiology of intrapartum hypoxemia is contraction-induced reduction in uteroplacental perfusion (sometimes already compromised) and not cord compression at all. This distorted categorization causes confusion, false-alarm fatigue and difficulty in focusing on real pathological decelerations making CTG interpretation dysfunctional ultimately compromising patient safety. Obstetricians/midwives should demand reverting to the previous more scientific British categorization of decelerations based solely on time relationship to contractions as advocated by the pioneers like Hon and Caldeyro-Barcia, rather than accepting the current "post-truth" scenario.

Imperative for improvements and international convergence of intrapartum fetal monitoring: A bird’s eye view

Intrapartum fetal monitoring has been criticized for the lack of evidence of improvement in fetal outcome despite causing increased operative intervention. Paradoxically, cardiotocography (CTG) has been a major driver for litigation for neonatal neurological injury. This analytical review tries to explore why extensive clinical studies and trials over 50 years have failed to demonstrate or bring about significant improvement in intrapartum fetal monitoring. There seems a need for significant reform. International congruence on most aspects of CTG interpretation [definitions of fetal heart rate (FHR) parameters, CTG recording speed, 3-tier systems, etc.] is highly desirable to facilitate future meaningful clinical studies, evaluation and progress in this field. The FHR changes are non-specific and poor surrogate for fetal well-being. As a compromise for maintaining low false-negative results for fetal acidemia, a high false-positive value may have to be accepted. The need for redefining the place of adjuvant tests of fetal well-being like fetal blood sampling or fetal electrocardiography (ECG) is discussed. The FHR decelerations are often deterministic (center-stage) in CTG interpretation and 3-tier categorization. It is discussed if their scientific and physiological classification (avoiding framing and confirmation biases) may be best based on time relationship to uterine contractions alone. This may provide a more sound foundation which could improve the reliability and further evolution of 3-tier systems. Results of several trials of fetal ECG (STAN) have been inconclusive and a need for a fresh approach or strategy is considered. It is hoped that the long anticipated Computer-aided analysis of CTG will be more objective and reliable (overcome human factors) and will offer valuable support or may eventually replace visual CTG interpretation. In any case, the recording and archiving all CTGs digitally and testing cord blood gases routinely in every delivery would be highly desirable for future research. This would facilitate well designed retrospective studies which can be very informative especially when prospective randomised controlled trials are often difficult and resource-intensive.

Intermittent Auscultation in Labor: Could It Be Missing Many Pathological (Late) Fetal Heart Rate Decelerations? Analytical Review and Rationale for Improvement Supported by Clinical Cases

Intermittent auscultation (IA) of fetal heart rate (FHR) is recommended/preferred in low risk labors. Its usage even in developed countries is poised to increase because of perceived benefit of reduction in operative intervention and some disillusionment with the cardiotocography (CTG). Many national guidelines have stipulated regimes (frequency/timing) of IA based on level IV evidence. These tend to get faithfully and exactingly followed. It was observed that deliveries of many unexpectedly asphyxiated infants occurred despite rigorously performed and documented IA compliant with the guidelines. This triggered a reappraisal of the robustness of IA leading to this focused review supplemented by two anonymized cases. It concludes that the current methodology of IA may be flawed in that it poses a risk of missing many or most late (pathological) FHR decelerations, one of the foremost goals of IA. This is because many late decelerations reach their nadir before the end of the contraction. Thus the currently recommended auscultation of FHR for 60 seconds after the contraction by all national guidelines seemed to encompass their “recovery” phase and appeared to be misinterpreted as normal FHR or even as a reassuring accelerative pattern in the clinical practice. A recent recommendation of recording of the FHR as a single figure (rather than a range) does not remedy this anomaly and seems even less informative. It would be better to auscultate FHR before and after the contractions (or contraction to contraction) and take the FHR just before the contraction as the baseline FHR and interpret the FHR after contraction in the context of this baseline. This relatively simple improvement would detect most late FHR decelerations thus ameliorating the risk and significantly enhancing the patient safety.

Categorization of Fetal Heart Rate Decelerations in American and European Practice: Importance and Imperative of Avoiding Framing and Confirmation Biases

Interpretation of electronic fetal monitoring (EFM) remains controversial and unsatisfactory. Fetal heart rate (FHR) decelerations are the commonest aberrant feature on cardiotocographs and considered “center-stage” in the interpretation of EFM. A recent American study suggested that the lack of correlation of American three-tier system to neonatal acidemia may be due to the current peculiar nomenclature of FHR decelerations leading to loss of meaning. The pioneers like Hon and Caldeyro-Barcia classified decelerations based primarily on time relationship to contractions and not on etiology per se. This critical analysis debates pros and cons of significant anchoring/framing and confirmation biases in defining different types of decelerations based primarily on the shape (slope) or time of descent. It would be important to identify benign early decelerations correctly to avoid unnecessary intervention as well as to improve the positive predictive value of the other types of decelerations. Currently the vast majority of decelerations are classed as “variable”. This review shows that the most common rapid decelerations during contractions with trough corresponding to peak of contraction cannot be explained by “cord-compression” hypothesis but by direct/pure (defined here as not mediated through baro-/chemoreceptors) or non-hypoxic vagal reflex. These decelerations are benign, most likely and mainly a result of head-compression and hence should be called “early” rather than “variable”. Standardization is important but should be appropriate and withstand scientific scrutiny. Significant framing and confirmation biases are necessarily unscientific and the succeeding three-tier interpretation systems and structures embodying these biases would be dysfunctional and clinically unhelpful. Clinical/pathophysiological analysis and avoidance of flaws/biases suggest that a more physiological and scientific categorization of decelerations should be based on time relationship to contractions alone irrespective of shape or descent time as indeed proposed by pioneers like Hon and Caldeyro-Barcia. Such meaningful categorization, apart from being a scientific necessity, could improve the practical performance of three-tier FHR interpretation systems and possibly application of dependent complementary techniques like fetal ECG/pulse oximetry/computer-aided analysis, thus facilitating future progress in the field of intrapartum fetal monitoring.