Recalibration of Framingham risk for a local population of Sri Lanka

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) account for the highest number of deaths and disability globally and within Sri Lanka. A CVD risk prediction tool is a simple means of early identification of high-risk groups which is a cost-effective preventive strategy, especially for resource-poor countries. Distribution of risk factor levels varies in different regions even within the same country, thus a common risk estimation tool for the country may give false local predictions. Since there are few published data related to Sri Lanka the aim of this study was to recalibrate the Framingham equation according to the local risk factor profile of a population in the Kurunegala region in Sri Lanka.

METHOD

A cross-sectional study was conducted with the participation of 1 102 persons from the Kurunegala Regional Director of Health Services area and the data was collected using an interviewer-administered questionnaire, anthropometric, blood pressure, and biochemical measurements. CVD risk was estimated using Framingham original and recalibrated CVD risk assessment methods. Current CVD mortality and morbidity data and the recalibration method conducted by the method described by Wilson and colleagues were used for calculations.

RESULTS

Original and recalibrated Framingham CVD risk scores predicted 55.5% (N = 612) and 62.3% (N = 687) to be having less than 10% CVD risk respectively. Further, the original and recalibrated CVD Risk Scores predicted 2.2% (N = 24) and 1.8% (N = 20) to be having CVD risk more than 40% respectively.

CONCLUSION

These findings show an over prediction of the CVD risk with the original Framingham risk calculations which signifies the importance of development of a region-specific risk prediction tool using local risk factor data in Sri Lanka which will prevent unnecessary expenditure to manage people without risk of CVD.

Estimated risk of cardiovascular disease among the HIV-positive patients aged 40 years or older in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is an emerging cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV-positive patients receiving successful combination antiretroviral therapy, but their CVD risk has been rarely investigated in Asia-Pacific region. We aimed to assess the CVD risk of HIV-positive Taiwanese outpatients.

METHODS

We did cross-sectional questionnaire interviews to collect information of HIV-positive Taiwanese patients aged 40-79 at the HIV clinics of a medical center from 1 March to 31 August, 2017. The Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score and Data-Collection on Adverse effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) risk score were used to estimate their CVD risk.

RESULTS

Of the screened 1251 patients, 1006 (80.4%) with complete data to assess their CVD risk were included for analyses. The prevalence of patients aged 40-75 and with a high CVD risk was 30.6% by FRS, 3.7% by D:A:D (R) risk score, and 22.2% by ASCVD risk score. In multiple logistic regression, older age, current smoking, higher systolic blood pressure, and higher triglyceride and fasting glucose levels were independently associated with the ASCVD risk score ≥7.5%. If current smokers aged 55-59 had stopped smoking, the proportions of them with a 10-year CVD risk of ≥10% by FRS and ≥7.5% by ASCVD risk score would have decreased by 35.3% and 20.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher CVD risk estimates among HIV-positive Taiwanese aged 40-75 were associated with an older age, current smoking, higher systolic blood pressure, hypertriglyceridemia, and hyperglycemia. Smoking cessation could potentially lead to significant decreases of CVD risk.