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Desbiens LC, Sidibé A, Beaudoin C, Jean S, Mac-Way F. Comparison of Fracture Prediction Tools in Individuals Without and With Early Chronic Kidney Disease: A Population-Based Analysis of CARTaGENE. J Bone Miner Res 2020; 35:1048-1057. [PMID: 32022942 DOI: 10.1002/jbmr.3977] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2019] [Revised: 01/11/2020] [Accepted: 01/29/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
Whether fracture prediction tools developed for the management of osteoporosis can be used in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is poorly known. We aimed to compare the performance of fracture prediction tools in non-CKD and CKD. We analyzed CARTaGENE, a population-based survey of 40-year-old to 69-year-old individuals recruited between 2009 and 2010. Renal function was assessed using baseline creatinine and categorized according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines (non-CKD, stage 2, stage 3). Individuals without creatinine measurements or with advanced CKD (stage 4 or 5; prevalence <0.25%) were excluded. Predicted 5-year fracture probabilities (using Fracture Risk Assessment Tool [FRAX], QFracture, and Garvan) were computed at baseline. Fracture incidence (major fracture [MOF] or any fracture) was evaluated in administrative databases from recruitment to March 2016. Discrimination (hazard ratios [HRs] per standard deviation [SD] increase in Cox models; c-statistics) and calibration (standardized incidence ratios [SIRs] before and after recalibration) were assessed in each CKD strata. We included 19,393 individuals (9522 non-CKD; 9114 stage 2; 757 stage 3). A total of 830 patients had any fracture during follow-up, including 352 MOF. FRAX (HR = 1.89 [1.63-2.20] non-CKD; 1.64 [1.41-1.91] stage 2; 1.76 [1.10-2.82] stage 3) and QFracture (HR = 1.90 [1.62-2.22] non-CKD; 1.57 [1.35-1.82] stage 2; 1.86 [1.19-2.91] stage 3) discriminated MOF similarly in non-CKD and CKD. In contrast, the discrimination of Garvan for any fracture tended to be lower in CKD stage 3 compared to non-CKD and CKD stage 2 (HR = 1.36 [1.22-1.52] non-CKD; 1.34 [1.20-1.50] stage 2; 1.11 [0.79-1.55] stage 3). Before recalibration, FRAX globally overestimated fracture risk while QFracture and Garvan globally underestimated fracture risk. After recalibration, FRAX and QFracture were adequately calibrated for MOF in all CKD strata whereas Garvan tended to underestimate any fracture risk in CKD stage 3 (SIR = 1.31 [0.95-1.81]). In conclusion, the discrimination and calibration of FRAX and QFracture is similar in non-CKD and CKD. Garvan may have a lower discrimination in CKD stage 3 and underestimate fracture risk in these patients. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louis-Charles Desbiens
- CHU de Québec Research Center, L'Hôtel-Dieu-de-Québec Hospital, Endocrinology and Nephrology Axis, Quebec City, Canada.,Department and Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Quebec City, Canada
| | - Aboubacar Sidibé
- CHU de Québec Research Center, L'Hôtel-Dieu-de-Québec Hospital, Endocrinology and Nephrology Axis, Quebec City, Canada.,Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Quebec City, Canada
| | - Claudia Beaudoin
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Quebec City, Canada.,Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, Quebec City, Canada
| | - Sonia Jean
- Department and Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Quebec City, Canada.,Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, Quebec City, Canada
| | - Fabrice Mac-Way
- CHU de Québec Research Center, L'Hôtel-Dieu-de-Québec Hospital, Endocrinology and Nephrology Axis, Quebec City, Canada.,Department and Faculty of Medicine, Université Laval, Quebec City, Canada
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