EcoCountHelper: an R package and analytical pipeline for the analysis of ecological count data using GLMMs, and a case study of bats in Grand Teton National Park

Here we detail the use of an R package, 'EcoCountHelper', and an associated analytical pipeline aimed at making generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMM)-based analysis of ecological count data more accessible. We recommend a GLMM-based analysis workflow that allows the user to (1) employ selection of distributional forms (Poisson vs negative binomial) and zero-inflation (ZIP and ZINB, respectively) using AIC and variance-mean plots, (2) examine models for goodness-of-fit using simulated residual diagnostics, (3) interpret model results via easy to understand outputs of changes in predicted responses, and (4) compare the magnitude of predictor variable effects via effects plots. Our package uses a series of easy-to-use functions that can accept both wide- and long-form multi-taxa count data without the need for programming experience. To demonstrate the utility of this approach, we use our package to model acoustic bat activity data relative to multiple landscape characteristics in a protected area (Grand Teton National Park), which is threatened by encroaching disease-white nose syndrome. Global threats to bat conservation such as disease and deforestation have prompted extensive research to better understand bat ecology. Notwithstanding these efforts, managers operating on lands crucial to the persistence of bat populations are often equipped with too little information regarding local bat activity to make informed land-management decisions. In our case study in the Tetons, we found that an increased prevalence of porous buildings increases activity levels of Eptesicus fuscus and Myotis volans; Myotis lucifugus activity decreases as distance to water increases; and Myotis volans activity increases with the amount of forested area. By using GLMMs in tandem with 'EcoCountHelper', managers without advanced programmatic or statistical expertise can assess the effects of landscape characteristics on wildlife in a statistically-robust framework.

Clinics register based HIV prevalence in Jimma zone, Ethiopia: applications of likelihood and Bayesian approaches

Background

The distribution of HIV is not uniform in Ethiopia with some regions recording higher prevalence than others. However, reported regional HIV prevalence estimates mask the heterogeneity of the epidemic within regions. The main purpose of this study was to assess the district differences in HIV prevalence and other factors that affect the prevalence of HIV infection in Jimma zone, Oromia region of Ethiopia. We aimed to identify districts which had higher or lower than zone average HIV prevalence. Such in-depth analysis of HIV data at district level may help to develop effective strategies to reduce the HIV transmission rate.

Methods

Data collected from 8440 patients who were tested for HIV status in government clinics at the 22 Districts between September 2018 to August 2019 in Jimma zone were used for the analyses. A generalized linear mixed effects model with district random effects was applied to assess the factors associated with HIV infection and the best linear unbiased prediction was used to identify districts that had higher or lower HIV infection. Both likelihood and Bayesian methods were considered.

Results

The statistical test on district random effects variance suggested the need for district random effects in all the models. The results from applying both methods on full data show that the odds of HIV infection are significantly associated with covariates considered in this study. Disaggregation of prevalence by gender also highlighted the persistent features of the HIV epidemic in Jimma zone. After controlling for covariates effects, the results from both techniques revealed that there was heterogeneity in HIV infection prevalence among districts within Jimma zone, where some of them had higher and some had lower HIV infection prevalence compared to the zone average HIV infection prevalence.

Conclusions

The study recommends government to give attention to those districts which had higher HIV infection and to conduct further research to improve their intervention strategies. Further, related to those districts which had lower infection, it would be advantageous to identify reasons for their performance and may apply them to overcome HIV infection among residents in those districts which had higher HIV infection. The approach used in this study can also help to assess the effect of interventions introduced by the authorities to control the epidemic and it can easily be extended to assess the regions HIV infection rate relative to the rate at the national level, or zones HIV infection rate relative to the rate at a region level.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06965-0.

Modeling accuracy as a function of response time with the generalized linear mixed effects model

In psycholinguistic studies using error rates as a response measure, response times (RT) are most often analyzed independently of the error rate, although it is widely recognized that they are related. In this paper we present a mixed effects logistic regression model for the error rate that uses RT as a trial-level fixed- and random-effect regression input. Production data from a translation-recall experiment are analyzed as an example. Several model comparisons reveal that RT improves the fit of the regression model for the error rate. Two simulation studies then show how the mixed effects regression model can identify individual participants for whom (a) faster responses are more accurate, (b) faster responses are less accurate, or (c) there is no relation between speed and accuracy. These results show that this type of model can serve as a useful adjunct to traditional techniques, allowing psycholinguistic researchers to examine more closely the relationship between RT and accuracy in individual subjects and better account for the variability which may be present, as well as a preliminary step to more advanced RT-accuracy modeling.