Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting remission of migraine patients with patent foramen ovale after closure

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to construct and validate a nomogram model that predicts the remission of migraine attacks by screening factors that affect the prognosis of migraine patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) after closure.

METHOD

Retrospective analysis was conducted in migraine patients with PFO who underwent PFO closure in the Department of Cardiology of Jiangsu Province Hospital from September 2020 to April 2023. Based on the Migraine Disability Assessment (MIDAS) scores from the 1-year follow-up after PFO closure, all patients who met the inclusion criteria were categorized into a remission group and a non-remission group. The primary efficacy endpoint was remission of migraine headache. After collecting clinical data, transcranial doppler sonography (TCD) results and MIDAS scores, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to filter variables predictive to migraine remission and construct the nomogram model. The Nomogram's accuracy and consistency were respectively assessed through Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves. Additionally, an analysis of decision curves (DCA) was conducted to evaluate the clinical utility of this newly developed model.

RESULT

A total of 241 consecutive patients were included in the study. The remission group included 21 males and 93 females, with a median age of 39 (30.25,50) years. The non-remission group included 26 males and 101 females, with a median age of 35 (25.5,47.5) years. All Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that 5 independent predictors, including MIDAS before closure (p = 0.0002), mitigating factors (p = 0.0057), number of attacks/month (p = 0.0058), TCD (p = 0.0093) and Platelet Crit (PCT) (p = 0.0351), played a significant role in the prediction of remission of migraine patients with PFO after closure. Based on these independent predictors, the predictive nomogram model of migraine remission in PFO patients was constructed. The application of the nomogram in the training cohort exhibited good discrimination (area under the ROC curve was 0.7763[95% CI 0.7108-0.8418]), which was confirmed in the validation cohort (AUC was 0.704[95% CI 0.5533-0.8547]). The calibration curve showed that the nomogram model demonstrated good calibration performance. Additionally, the decision curve analysis indicated the clinical utility of the nomogram model.

CONCLUSION

The construction of the nomogram model had a considerable predictive accuracy for migraine remission in patients after PFO closure, which may provide constructive guidance for clinical decision making.

Clinical significance of centripetal propagation of vasoconstriction in patients with reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome: A retrospective case-control study

Introduction

We previously reported centripetal propagation of vasoconstriction at the time of thunderclap headache remission in patients with reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome. Here we examine the clinical significance of centripetal propagation of vasoconstriction.

Methods

Participants comprised 48 patients who underwent magnetic resonance angiography within 72 h of reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome onset and within 48 h of thunderclap headache remission.

Results

In 24 of the 48 patients (50%), centripetal propagation of vasoconstriction occurred on magnetic resonance angiography at the time of thunderclap headache remission. The interval from first to last thunderclap headache in patients with centripetal propagation of vasoconstriction (14 ± 10 days) was significantly longer than that of patients without centripetal propagation of vasoconstriction (4 ± 2 days). In the patients with centripetal propagation of vasoconstriction at the time of thunderclap headache remission, the incidence of another cerebral lesion (38%, 9 of 24 cases) was significantly higher than in patients without centripetal propagation of vasoconstriction (0%). From findings of sequential magnetic resonance angiography before and after thunderclap headache remission, we observed tendencies in which centripetal propagation of vasoconstriction gradually progressed after the onset of reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome and peaked at the time of thunderclap headache remission. The progress of centripetal propagation of vasoconstriction concluded with thunderclap headache remission.

Conclusions

Centripetal propagation of vasoconstriction has clinical significance as an indicator of the severity of reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome. The presence of centripetal propagation of vasoconstriction is associated with an increased risk of brain lesions and a longer interval from first to last thunderclap headache. Moreover, repeat magnetic resonance angiography to assess centripetal propagation of vasoconstriction during the time from onset to thunderclap headache remission can help diagnose reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome.