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Hadjinicolaou AV, van Munster SN, Achilleos A, Santiago Garcia J, Killcoyne S, Ragunath K, Bergman JJGHM, Fitzgerald RC, di Pietro M. Aneuploidy in targeted endoscopic biopsies outperforms other tissue biomarkers in the prediction of histologic progression of Barrett's oesophagus: A multi-centre prospective cohort study. EBioMedicine 2020; 56:102765. [PMID: 32460165 PMCID: PMC7251385 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2020.102765] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2020] [Revised: 04/02/2020] [Accepted: 04/08/2020] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The cancer risk in Barrett's oesophagus (BO) is difficult to estimate. Histologic dysplasia has strong predictive power, but can be missed by random biopsies. Other clinical parameters have limited utility for risk stratification. We aimed to assess whether a molecular biomarker panel on targeted biopsies can predict neoplastic progression of BO. Methods 203 patients with BO were tested at index endoscopy for 9 biomarkers (p53 and cyclin A expression; aneuploidy and tetraploidy; CDKN2A (p16), RUNX3 and HPP1 hypermethylation; 9p and 17p loss of heterozygosity) on autofluorescence-targeted biopsies and followed-up prospectively. Data comparing progressors to non-progressors were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses using survival curves, Cox-proportional hazards and logistic regression models. Findings 127 patients without high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) at index endoscopy were included, of which 42 had evidence of any histologic progression over time. Aneuploidy was the only predictor of progression from non-dysplastic BO (NDBO) to any grade of neoplasia (p = 0.013) and HGD/OAC (p = 0.002). Aberrant p53 expression correlated with risk of short-term progression within 12 months, with an odds ratio of 6.0 (95% CI: 3.1–11.2). A panel comprising aneuploidy and p53 had an area under the receiving operator characteristics curve of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.59–0.77) for prediction of any progression. Interpretation Aneuploidy is the only biomarker that predicts neoplastic progression of NDBO. Aberrant p53 expression suggests prevalent dysplasia, which might have been missed by random biopsies, and warrants early follow up.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas V Hadjinicolaou
- MRC Cancer Unit, University of Cambridge, Hutchison/MRC Research Centre, Box 197, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge CB2 0XZ, United Kingdom
| | - Sanne N van Munster
- Department of Gastroenterology, Amsterdam University Medical Centre, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ, Amsterdam 22660, the Netherlands
| | - Achilleas Achilleos
- MRC Cancer Unit, University of Cambridge, Hutchison/MRC Research Centre, Box 197, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge CB2 0XZ, United Kingdom
| | - Jose Santiago Garcia
- Nottingham Digestive Diseases Biomedical Research Centre, Queens Medical Centre Campus, E Floor, West Block, Derby Road, Nottingham NG7 2UH, United Kingdom
| | - Sarah Killcoyne
- MRC Cancer Unit, University of Cambridge, Hutchison/MRC Research Centre, Box 197, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge CB2 0XZ, United Kingdom; European Molecular Biology Laboratory, European Bioinformatics Institute (EMBL-EBI), Hinxton CB10 1SD, United Kingdom
| | - Krish Ragunath
- Nottingham Digestive Diseases Biomedical Research Centre, Queens Medical Centre Campus, E Floor, West Block, Derby Road, Nottingham NG7 2UH, United Kingdom
| | - Jacques J G H M Bergman
- Department of Gastroenterology, Amsterdam University Medical Centre, Meibergdreef 9, 1105 AZ, Amsterdam 22660, the Netherlands
| | - Rebecca C Fitzgerald
- MRC Cancer Unit, University of Cambridge, Hutchison/MRC Research Centre, Box 197, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge CB2 0XZ, United Kingdom
| | - Massimiliano di Pietro
- MRC Cancer Unit, University of Cambridge, Hutchison/MRC Research Centre, Box 197, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge CB2 0XZ, United Kingdom.
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